Photo by David McNew/Getty Images
Oil is likely to extend its decline. The histograms show that oil is entering the weakest part of the month in what has been the weakest month of the year. November has been the weakest month in any year, showing rising prices only 36% of the time. The November 10th-December 10th interval has been the weakest 30-day period for oil since 1983. Price has been lower over 60% of the time in this span.
The next two weeks are the most bearish part of the month as can be seen in the daily histogram below. The $76 area is the target. The next lower support level is $66.
Oil Daily
This decline is likely to extend.
Monthly Histogram-Oil
October and November have been the most bearish months for the oil price.
Blue: Average Percentage Change
Red: Probability of a rise on that day
Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)
Daily Histogram for Oil in November
The last week of the month has been especially bearish.
Blue: Average Percentage Change
Red: Probability of a rise on that day
Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/11/21/oil-prices-are-likely-to-continue-to-decline/