Oil market in China still markedly oversupplied in September – Commerzbank

The oil market in China was oversupplied by 930 thousand barrels per day in September, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Demand is not expected to pick up sharply next year either

“If processing is compared with the crude oil production figures also reported by the NBS and the crude oil imports published by the customs authority a week ago, the oil market in China was oversupplied by 930 thousand barrels per day in September.”

“The monthon-month increase in processing, coupled with a decline in imports, reduced the implicit supply surplus by half compared to August. Nevertheless, the oil market in China is in a weak spot. This is also shown looking at China’s implied oil demand, which is the difference between crude oil processing and net exports of oil products.”

“In September, it was 2 percent below the previous year’s level. The IEA expects demand in China to grow only slightly this year, by 150,000 barrels per day. Despite the stimulus measures announced so far, demand is not expected to pick up sharply next year either, as IEA chief Birol emphasised yesterday at a conference in Singapore.”