Odds, Favorites, Picks And Award Predictions

The NFL Coach of the Year honor is one of the more interesting pro football award races to handicap.

There’s often little consistency amongst the panel of 50 AP members who each get to cast one vote to determine the winner. Five or more coaches have earned at least one vote in each of the last eight seasons.

While these voters rarely make a unanimous selection, there are some trends to keep in mind when making a prop bet for this award.

It’s become rare for the league’s best coach to take home the hardware these days. Voters tend to lean towards storylines when it comes time to make their choice for the award.

While a team generally still needs to be successful for its coach to claim Coach of the Year—winners have averaged approximately 12 wins over the last 20 years—a great record is far from the main determining factor.

Improvement is one of the main metrics voters have been using to determine the winner in recent years. Winning at least five more games than the previous season will give a head coach a huge leg up on the competition in this race. The average Coach of the Year winner since 2000 has oversaw an improvement of nearly six wins from the previous season.

Newer head coaches tend to have an advantage over the field, especially if they’ve inherited a team that was amongst the NFL’s worst and helped turn them around with a winning record. 11 of the last 30 winners have been rookie head coaches.

While the league’s consistently great head coaches can still win the award, it often takes an incredibly strong season to convince voters they deserve it.

Bill Belichick has rated amongst the top head coaches in NFL history for two decades, but the New England Patriots coach has just three Coach of the Year awards to his name. He earned each of these in campaigns (2003, 2007, 2010) where his team won four or more contests than it had the previous year.

A strong narrative has also been helpful for previous Coach of the Year Award winners. Coaches who were able to lead their team to the postseason and keep the ship steady after losing stars tend to get more credit than those who win a lot of games with their best players on the field.

Mike Vrabel is a great example of this, as he was able to help the Tennessee Titans earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC despite losing star running back Derrick Henry—a player who was largely responsible the team’s smashmouth offensive identity—for half the season. Vrabel’s ability to overcome adversity resonated with voters, who honored him with his first Coach of the Year award.

With that in mind here is a look at the odds for each of the league’s 32 head coaches to win the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year award:

NFL Coach of the Year Award 2022 Odds

• Brandon Staley +1400
• Brian Daboll +1400
• Doug Pederson +1600
• Kevin O’Connell +1600
• Dan Campbell +1600
• Nathaniel Hackett +1600
• Mike McDaniel +2000
• Frank Reich +2000
• Matt Lafleur +2000
• Nick Sirianni +2000
• Kevin Stefanski +2000
• Josh McDaniels +2000
• Kyle Shanahan +2000
• John Harbaugh +2500
• Mike Vrabel +2500
• Dennis Allen +2500
• Ron Rivera +2500
• Robert Saleh +2500
• Sean McVay +3000
• Mike Tomlin +3000
• Sean McDermott +3000
• Matt Eberflus +3000
• Bill Belichick +3000
• Kliff Kingsbury +3000
• Zac Taylor +3000
• Todd Bowles +4000
• Lovie Smith +4000
• Mike McCarthy +4000
• Andy Reid +4000
• Matt Rhule +4000
• Pete Carroll +4000
• Arthur Smith +4000

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel

Bookmakers feel Brandon Staley and Brian Daboll have the best chances of being named Coach of the Year, installing them as co-favorites with +1400 odds.

There’s little place for Daboll to take the New York Giants but up. The team has been mired in mediocrity for years and suffered through an abysmal 2021 campaign under former head coach Joe Judge. With the former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator taking the reins, there is real hope surrounding Big Blue for the first time in a while.

Staley is a sensible choice after his Los Angeles Chargers finished 9-8 and narrowly missed out on the playoffs last year. The Bolts appear poised to improve after making some major defensive additions this offseason—such as trading for Khalil Mack and signing J.C. Jackson—to augment an offense that should only get better with third-year signal-caller Justin Herbert running the show.

While both of those coaches have a great shot to win, the best value bet is Josh McDaniels at +2000.

McDaniels is getting his second shot at head coaching with the Las Vegas Raiders following a rough stint with the Denver Broncos over a decade ago. The 46-year-old is much better prepared for the job now and is joining a team coming off a surprise playoff run.

With a quality quarterback in Derek Carr, an elite wideout in Davante Adams and a defense that improved with some free-agent splurges for stars like Chandler Jones, the Raiders have a chance to make some noise in a tough AFC West.

If McDaniels can lead his team to a divisional title and improve upon the team’s 10-7 record, he will check all the boxes Coach of the Year voters tend to look for when making their decision. At 20-1 odds, there is no better bet on the board going into the 2022 season.