NYC May Break Snow Drought As Northeast Prepares For Dangerous Cold Blast

Topline

A historic snow drought that has left New York City without more than a dusting this winter could finally end overnight, as forecasters warn of a coming cold snap likely to break records this weekend by sending temperatures plunging below zero across much of the Northeast.

Snow could fall for the first time this winter in New York City ahead of temperatures plummeting … [+] this weekend.

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Key Facts

New York City has a 30% chance of snow showers overnight with a forecast low of 30, according to the National Weather Service—just cold enough to allow snow to stick to the ground.

Any snow will likely fall after 1 a.m. and “accumulation more than quick coating is not expected,” the weather service said, but just 0.1 inches would meet the criteria for “measurable snow,” ending the city’s historic streak.

This is the latest in the season measurable snow has not been recorded at Central Park, and the city is just five days away from breaking its record for most consecutive days without accumulating snow.

The snow possibility comes ahead of a major pattern change for the Northeast, after weeks of unseasonably warm temperatures.

A coming Arctic cold front caused by a lobe breaking from the Polar Vortex is expected to plunge the low in New York City to 5 on Friday night, with wind chills well below zero, while New England and much of upstate New York will be even colder.

The temperature in Hartford is expected to drop to –6 degrees on Friday night, with Boston falling to –8 and dealing with wind chills that could approach –30.

Big Number

–85. That’s how cold the wind chill might dip on Mount Washington in New Hampshire, which is notorious for extreme and erratic weather.

Contra

Snow is not expected with the cold blast this weekend, meaning if New York City does not get snow overnight, it will almost certainly break its 332-day record for longest period without measurable snow on Sunday. Accumulating snow was last observed in New York City on March 9.

Surprising Fact

Other major East Coast cities, like Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington also have not had measurable snow this winter. Like New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore have about a 30% chance of ending their snow droughts overnight, but Washington’s odds are a bit longer. Though D.C. has a higher chance of receiving precipitation (40%), its low Wednesday morning is expected to bottom out just at freezing—32 degrees. That leaves a very brief window—if any—where snow might stick to the ground in Washington.

Key Background

Temperatures have been above average since the start of the year across much of the Northeast, which will likely make this month the warmest January on record in New York City. Experts have pointed to climate change as the main contributor to the record-breaking warmth, which has kept New York City from dropping below 28 degrees for the entire month. The existing record for longest snow drought in the city is less than three years old, and six of the top ten longest snow droughts have occurred in the 21st century, according to data compiled by the Washington Post.

What To Watch For

February is the snowiest month across much of the Northeast. New York City receives more than 10 inches of snow in a typical February.

Tangent

A major winter storm is bringing snow and ice to a large swath of the South, from central Texas to Virginia. Around 3,400 flights have been either delayed or canceled in the U.S. on Tuesday, according to FlightAware, largely due to the winter weather. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport has been hardest hit, with half of Tuesday’s flights originating from the airport being canceled.