Nvidia, Intel, and AMD are at risk if this big Citi prediction is right

There are at least two things market participants are bearish on as summer draws to a close: Bed Bath & Beyond stock (despite this week’s bounce) and the entire semiconductor space.

The closely watched Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is down nearly 30% year to date, under-performing the S&P 500’s 15% drop. Analysts blame a sharp downturn in PC demand post COVID-19 pandemic for semi stock weakness. Rising interest rates have also damaged sentiment around often hot momentum names in the space such as AMD and Nvidia.

And if Citi chip analyst Chris Danely is correct in a new note to clients, chip stocks could be at risk for a fresh leg down.

Here’s Danely’s call:

“Consensus estimates declined during earnings season for the first time since the pandemic driven by the PC and handset slowdown amidst the recession. We also witnessed the first signs of a correction in the automotive and industrial end markets and we continue to believe we are entering the worst semiconductor downturn in a decade given the recession and inventory build. We maintain our belief that every company/end market will correct and we expect the SOX index to hit new lows and fall another 25%.”

Danely does have one top semi pick: Analog Devices (ADI) at a $195 price target/+26% upside potential

“We expect EPS upside due to revenue and cost synergies from the Maxim acquisition.”

The industry vibe in semiconductors:

Earnings warnings from Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Intel have all taken center stage for investors in the last two months. Shares of these four chip giants are now down on average 40% year to date according to Yahoo Finance analysis — the worst performer is Nvidia with a plunge of 47%.

Meanwhile, IDC forecasts global shipments of PCs will tank 8.2% year over year this year to 321.2 million units as the post COVID demand hangover persists.

“We believe that we are at the bottom. We have said that very plainly, that we are below the shipping rates of our customers. So we see that building back naturally. Also as we go into the second half you have some of the natural cycles like holidays as well. So all of those give us confidence in the guidance we gave.”

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Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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