Not So Fast – Switzerland Will Have Another Referendum on the F-35

It’s taken less than 9 months for a coalition of Left-wing political groups including The Group for a Switzerland without an Army (GSoA) to fulfill the first part of a pledge to get the country to reverse course on its acquisition of 36 F-35As. Now they say they have gathered the required 100,000 signatures to trigger a new referendum on buying Lockheed Martin’s
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5th generation fighter.

As I wrote last fall, GSoA and others opposing the fighter purchase vowed to make the “luxury jet crash at the ballot box”. The alliance, including Switzerland’s left-wing Swiss Green Party and Social Democratic Party, has tapped into significant public opposition to what it says is an overly expensive, overtly strike-capable, fiscally unsustainable “luxury toy for some army officers.”

The 100,000-plus signatures the coalition claims to have collected will have to be handed to Swiss federal authorities and checked before a date for a popular vote can be set. That such a vote will possibly take place as the war in Ukraine grinds on and as Europe views Russia with renewed anxiety is testament to the independent character of Switzerland and its oft-narrow view of realpolitik.

Timing is important. The $6.1 billion contract with Lockheed Martin was provisionally signed last year and Swiss authorities had planned to await the outcome of the “Stop The F-35” initiative before formally agreeing to the deal. However, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the government signaled its intention to officially sign the contract before it expires in March 2023.

That leaves a further nine months from now for the Stop The F-35 organizers and Swiss authorities to stage the referendum vote before contract expiration. The anti-F-35 coalition says that’s doable if the Swiss parliament and government act without intentional delay.

Swiss broadcaster, SRF quoted Green Party parliamentarian, Marionna Schlatter, who asserted, “Due to the exploding costs of the F-35 and numerous defects in this stealth bomber, this discussion would be urgently needed.”

It’s obviously not a discussion Lockheed Martin wants to see extended. When the Swiss selection was announced, Lockheed’s F-35 Switzerland campaign manager, Jim Robinson acknowledged, “We understand that there are people in Switzerland who are unhappy with this decision.”

I put several questions to the F-35-maker but Lockheed spokesperson, Allison Orne McKibbon, relayed only a blanket company statement on the situation;

“We continue to believe the F-35 is the most advanced, capable and affordable aircraft available for the Swiss Air Force’s future fighter fleet. As the world’s only 5th generation, multi-role fighter, the F-35 is the only aircraft that supports Swiss air defense requirements for the next 50 years.”

That was not a view shared by the other candidates for Switzerland’s “Air 2030” upgrade program – Airbus’ Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing’s
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F/A-18 Super Hornet and Dassault’s Rafale. They questioned a price analysis by the Swiss Federal Council which concluded that Lockheed’s proposal for the 36 stealth fighters came in with the lowest cost over a 30 year forecast.

Mark Gunzinger, senior analyst at the Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, says the success of Swiss groups in triggering a referendum is not a surprise but that he would be surprised if it succeeded in halting the Swiss F-35 buy.

“Especially given Europe’s growing concern over Russia’s future intentions, and the well-known effectiveness of [the F-35] against non-stealth, non-5th generation aircraft. Plus, most of the objections raised by groups pushing the referendum are specious.”

That would appear a logical assessment but it’s worth remembering that the Swiss public approved the Air 2030 upgrade program to replace the country’s aging F/A-18 Hornets and Northop F-5s by a margin of just 50.1% in 2020. As several Swiss newspapers noted, had the selection of the F-35 been known in advance, there’s a very good chance that Air 2030 would have been rejected.

At the very least, the new referendum creates uncertainty for Lockheed Martin which may have to slow-walk its plans for standing up Swiss F-35 production and support. It’s not clear whether the Swiss government has told the company to pause on any planning/collaboration yet and in turn whether Lockheed has communicated with its extensive Swiss F-35 commercial partners regarding schedule changes and preparations slow-downs.

A logical follow-on question given the possibility that the Swiss deal may fall through is which of the other new F-35 buyers (Finland, Germany, Canada) might be first in line to take Switzerland’s place?

Lockheed declined to entertain the question but there is no doubt that its pending deal for Swiss F-35s faces jeopardy. As the French-Swiss might say, Pas si vite – “Not so fast”.