‘Nope’ Tops Box Office With Slightly Disappointing $44 Million Weekend

I guess it’s yet another sign of theatrical recovery that we’re discussing whether a $44 million opening weekend for an R-rated, original, live-action, star-lite horror flick is “disappointing.” And yes, regarding pre-release projections and realistic expectations, the $44 million launch for Nope is a little on the lower side. My excitement is tempered by the B Cinemascore grade and the possibility of a sharp drop next weekend, which might mean the film struggles to “make money” on its $69 million budget. Back in the day, I was quick to “write off” the over/under $55 million debuts of Watchmen and Green Lantern precisely because all signs pointed to a short theatrical run. I’m less sure that Nope will crash and burn, partially because of the lack of other “big” live-action newbies after Bullet Train in two weeks.

Jordan Peele is the only director other than maybe Chris Nolan or (in China) possibly Ju Wing for whom a $44 million Fri-Sun debut for an R-rated, high-concept, cryptically marketed, star-lite (Daniel Kaluuya and Keke Palmer are dynamite performers but not butts-in-seats draws), live-action original could be remotely classified as “disappointing.” It’s the biggest launch for a live-action original since, uh, Jordan Peele’s Us ($71 million) in March of 2019. It opened bigger than Quintin Tarantino’s $90 million Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood ($41 million in July of 2019, and that’s with Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie) and just under the $47.5 million Fri-Sun launch (of a $57 million Memorial Day weekend debut) of John Krasinski’s $61 million, PG-13 A Quiet Place part II. So, what went, well, not wrong but less right than hoped? It’s complicated.

Get Out opened with $33 million (massive for an original R-rated chiller) and legged throughout 2017 for a $176 million domestic (and $255 million global) finish. Peele’s Us was a metaphorical breakout sequel. Audiences who had discovered the Oscar-winning gem in weekend one, weekend twelve or after theaters showed up for the opening of Peele’s next cinematic nightmare. Cue a bonkers $28 million Friday (still the biggest opening day for a live-action original) and $71 million weekend (second to Avatar’s $77 million on that scale). Us had a clear hook (“nuclear family is attacked by murderous doppelgangers”) and a solid month of good reviews/pre-release hype, while Nope held back its reactions until days before release. Unfair comparisons aside, M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs (a $60 million debut twenty years ago) was a PG-13 flick starring peak-popular Mel Gibson with a faith-based angle.

Selling an original concept is still exceptionally tricky. You don’t want to spoil the movie (unless you do, such as a trailer that assured folks that Cast Away doesn’t end with Tom Hanks starving to death on a deserted island), but you also need to give audiences enough to feel comfortable showing up. That also means not pulling a switcheroo in terms of expectations versus reality. Serenity sold a Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway film noir/femme fatal erotic drama but was a sci-fi flick about characters who discover they only exist within a video game. M. Night Shyamalan’s Unbreakable was sold so cryptically that half the audience turned their noses when the Bruce Willis/Samuel L. Jackson film revealed that it was a (then-novel) grounded superhero movie. Those of us expecting more than “Peele does aliens” may have been deluding ourselves.

Nope still the second-best opening for an R-rated picture since Joker ($96 million) in October of 2019, behind Halloween Kills ($49 million) in October of 2021. Now it’s a matter of whether the soft(er) buzz and low(er) CinemaScore grade means short legs. Offhand, a multiplier like Halloween Kills ($92 million domestic from that $49 million debut or akin to Watchmen’s 1.92x multiplier) gets Nope to $83 million domestic. An abbreviated run like Happy Death Day ($55.5 million/$26 million despite good reviews and solid buzz) or The Nun ($117 million/$54 million) gets it to over/under $95 million. Legs at least as long as Us ($175 million/$71 million) get it to $108 million. Even if it doesn’t make it to $175 million global (around 2.5x its budget) in theatrical, I’m guessing it’ll make up the difference in PVOD, DVD and streaming revenue.

Peele’s prior films created larger commercial expectations even as nobody else would have had such hopes for a movie like Nope in the first place. Think Chris Nolan’s Tenet grossing $366 million worldwide amid the first year of Covid, terrible on a $200 million budget but well above almost any non-Nolan original since Interstellar. Moreover, Nope cost $69 million, not the over/under $40 million I had guestimated for the last few months. It Chapter Two cost $69 million only after It grossed $327 million domestic and $700 million worldwide on a $35 million budget. Even if the movie “cost too much,” it’s not like Universal is hurting for cash this summer. They are still currently drowning in Jurassic World and Minions money. Even if Peele now “owes” Comcast a favor, Fast and Furious 11 may eventually need a director.