‘No Path To Net-Zero Without Carbon Capture’

One of the most crucial aspects of the energy transition, which relies so heavily on government subsidies for developing technologies, is to somehow ensure the right technologies are being targeted. That concern that was top of mind for Ken Gilmartin, the Chief Executive Officer of Wood Plc., when I had the chance to interview him during the recent CERAWeek conference in Houston.

“What we are concerned about is the potential to end up subsidizing the wrong technologies,” Gilmartin says. “If you end up doing that, you risk creating a situation in which things don’t continue to improve in the right way, you can’t get to scale, and then you’re always leaning on subsidies. And if you do that, you might actually set the whole thing back maybe a decade in terms of where we’re trying to get to. So, we’re always mindful of that.”

“This needs to be an extraordinary transition.”

Gilmartin, whose company is one of the world’s leading engineering and technology consulting firms, says another concern that came to mind while listening to the discussions during the conference has to do with the noticeable re-focus on matters of energy security and a need to step up investments in traditional energy sources like oil and gas in order to continue meeting rising global demand.

“We heard people talking about the trilemma (defined as the need to find balance between energy reliability, affordability, and sustainability and its impact on everyday lives),” he says, “and the piece that we heard on repeat at CERA was about the need for an ‘orderly transition.’ I see that, and I’ll be honest, it didn’t sit well with me, because it started to sound a little bit like it’s business as usual. It’s become this kind of validation.”

In Gilmartin’s view, it has become clear that this current transition cannot become what he calls an “ordinary transition,” the kind the world has experienced in the past that, as Daniel Yergin pointed out in his book, “The New Map,” lingers across a timeline of a century or even longer.

“I think it’s clear that this needs to be that extraordinary transition,” Gilmartin points out. “We can’t go at it with a business-as-usual mindset. It has to be fast. It has to be furious.”

“Are we really going to have the courage, the conviction?”

Looking at the global commitment to achieve “net-zero” emissions by 2050, Gilmartin says that, while he came away from CERAWeek with a sense of optimism in some respects, he also “came away with a little bit of a question mark in my mind as to whether we are really going to have the courage, the conviction? Or are we reverting to type?”

One limiter to Gilmartin’s sense of optimism is that, as he put it, “the technology that’s going to get us that last 20% to 25% in our journey to net-zero may not exist yet.”

It’s a reality that presents one of the great risks in what is becoming essentially a global effort to tear down and rebuild the entire, $180 trillion global economy. If the right technologies are targeted and are developed and scaled-up in a timely and affordable manner, then many believe the effort can be successful. But target the wrong technologies while simultaneously denying needed capital investment to maintain existing solutions needed to keep the world running, and disaster can result.

“There is no path to net-zero without carbon capture.”

One technological solution in which Gilmartin is a firm believer is that of Carbon Capture and Storage, or CCS. Wood has been heavily involved in the sector for years, working with partners like Occidental and others around the world on an array of successful projects.

I asked Gilmartin what he says to critics who claim CCS is an unproven technology that doesn’t work?

“It’s a question that we get consistently,” he says. “We say that the technology is there, but what hasn’t been there is the financial return on the investment for people to actually go after it. I think that’s clear. We’ve done more than 175 feed studies on various different types of CCS captures in very different locations, size, scale, with different types of technology, depending on where it is, all around the world. It’s huge.”

So, in Gilmartin’s view, the technology for CCS is there, and he has no doubt that it will continue to be refined and improved over time.

As for the return on investment piece that has been missing, Gilmartin now believes it is in place as well. “We also know is that the return of the investment will continue to improve,” he says. “The subsidies that are here now with the IRA in the US kick-starts it. The capital is there, the subsidies are there to do it. The technology will continue to get better.”

I closed by asking Gilmartin how crucial he believes it is to have all the needed building blocks in place related to CCS. His answer was simple: “I think all of us understand as well is there is no path to net zero without carbon capture.”

That pretty well sums it up.