MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 08: Trevor Lawrence #16 and Brian Thomas Jr. #7 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrate after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 08, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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Welcome to Week 5 of the fantasy football season. This is the week that begins with teams on a bye. The teams on a bye are the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Also, remember that there is an early morning international game. The Minnesota Vikings (who stayed across the pond after the game last week in Dublin) will play against the newly led Cleveland Browns, as Dillon Gabriel has been named as the starting quarterback.
Now, let’s get to the matchups for your fantasy football Week 5.
Best/Worst Quarterback Matchup
Best QB Matchup: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals, Lions -9.5, 48.5 o/u
Trey Hendrickson cannot do it all alone. The Bengals’ defense isn’t good. So far this season, they have pressured the quarterback on only 29.1% of dropbacks. They also have the lowest blitz rate at 12.7% and they have only totaled six sacks in four games (spoiler alert: Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett has four on his own).
The Bengals are coming off a Monday Night Massacre where second-year quarterback Bo Nix threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns against them.
Enter seasoned pro Goff, who is not only playing behind footballguys’ number one offensive line, but he ranks first in clean pocket completion percentage (79.3%), his nine touchdown passes are the third most, and his 929 passing yards are the 10th most in the league.
Last week, against the Cleveland Browns’ vaunted defensive line, Goff managed 168 yards and two touchdowns. Look for him to double those passing yards and at least add one more passing touchdown to this week’s stats.
Worst QB Matchup: Carson Wentz, Minnesota Vikings v Cleveland Browns, Vikings -3.5, 36.5 o/u
It’s a bye week, so some may be forced to look to Wentz for a quarterback filler; try not to.
The Vikings’ offensive line isn’t good. It doesn’t help that Wentz’s 2.53 seconds to throw the ball is 24th in the league. It’s also not looking good that 14% of dropbacks by Vikings’ quarterbacks have resulted in a sack.
Now add to that the Browns’ defensive line, which Pro Football Focus has ranked as the best defensive line, the best pass-rush unit, and the best run defense unit. This defensive line enters Week 5 with a 90.5 overall grade. Defensive end Garrett (remember him from the four sacks) is a beast who only trails Micah Parsons with a 93.0 pass rush grade. It’s okay because Garrett leads all players with a 35.4% pass rush win rate.
Best/Worst Running Back Matchup
Best RB Matchup: Woody Marks, Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens, Texans -2.5, 41.5 o/u
This line started with the Ravens favored by 3.5 points, then the injury report surfaced. The Ravens listed 11 starters on their injury report, including OLB Kyle Van Noy, CBs Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie, and ILB Roquan Smith.
This is potentially beneficial to Marks, because when starting a healthy lineup, the Ravens’ defense ranked last in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. They were surrendering 25.2 fantasy points per game, 1.2 rushing touchdowns, and 116 rushing yards per game to the position.
Marks has gone from having no relevant snaps in Week 2 to a 48% snap share in Week 3 and surpassing Nick Chubb with a 56% snap share to Chubb’s 42% in Week 4. Mark’s snap share last week resulted in 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. Look for both Marks and Chubb to have a good fantasy day against this reeling Ravens defense.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JANUARY 26: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders attempts to break a tackle against Cooper DeJean #33 of the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter in the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 26, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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Worst RB Matchup: Washington Commanders Backfield @ Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -2.5, 47.5 o/u
It isn’t just the fact of the uncertainty of who will be RB1 in Washington. In fact, with the return of Jayden Daniels, it could be the quarterback. But the Commanders have utilized a semi-running back-by-committee approach to the position after the injury to Austin Ekeler. Last week, both Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt had seven carries. The week prior, it appeared that Rodriguez was the lead with 11 carries to Croskey-Merritt’s eight. Now, Daniels enters to blur the picture even further, and it is against the Chargers’ defense.
The Chargers have only allowed three rushing touchdowns, and no running back has rushed for more than 85 yards against them (the most being the J.K. Dobbins revenge game, where he absolutely torched the Chargers for 83 yards on 11 carries).
On the season, running backs have only averaged 9.2 fantasy points against them, and that includes adding Dobbins’ 15.3 fantasy points into the equation.
The uncertainty of who will be touting the ball, the Chargers’ ability to keep running backs out of the end zone, and the return of the mobile Daniels make this not the best running back match-up for the week.
Best/Worst Wide Receiver Matchup
Best Wide Receiver Matchup: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Chiefs -3.5, 45.5 o/u
In his first game back from the friendly fire shoulder injury, Worthy was targeted eight times for five receptions and 83 receiving yards. He also led the Chiefs in rushing yards with 38 on two carries.
Now the Chiefs will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. This is a great matchup for Worthy to continue his fantasy scoring prowess. The Jaguas allow the most receptions and the third most yards to wide receivers on the outside, and per Razzball’s slot v wide, 64% of Worthy’s scoring last week occurred when he was out wide. Now add that to the fact that the Jaguars are allowing the second-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers, and you have a worthwhile matchup (had to do it).
Worst Wide Receiver Matchup: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars v Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs -3.5, 45.5 o/u
You don’t really have to go far to find the worst wide receiver matchup. Thomas has played on 85% of the offensive snaps, has a 23% target share, and has caught only 37.5% of his targets. He is averaging nine fantasy points a game, and that is boosted by his 10.6 fantasy points last week.
This week, he will meet the Chiefs’ defense that has not allowed a receiving touchdown since Week 1. This defense has allowed the fewest yards to wide receivers lining up wide, which is where Thomas is 71% of the time.
Thomas may have seen a little light at the end of the tunnel last week, but it just could have been the Chiefs’ defense steamrolling their way towards him.
Best/Worst Tight End Matchups
Best Tight End Matchup: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills, Bills -7.5, 49.5 o/u
On paper, this is not the best matchup for tight ends, as the Bills are only allowing an average of 2.2 fantasy points per game to the position. But Henry’s position in the Patriots isn’t the typical tight end.
Henry is on the field for 83.9% snap share and has a 19.8% target share. He leads all tight ends with six red zone targets, has a 78.8% route participation, and has averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game.
The game script leans towards the Patriots playing from behind, which should equal more targets and more opportunities going Henry’s way.
Worst Tight End Matchup: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens v Houston Texans, Texans -2.5, 41.5 o/u
I was trying to avoid this because it feels kind of like kicking someone when they are down. That injury report mentioned earlier also includes quarterback Lamar Jackson. But that’s not the only reason to avoid Andrews; it’s also the return of Isaiah Likely, the certainty that the offense will attempt to lean on Derrick Henry with Jackson out, and most importantly, the Texans have only allowed one tight end touchdown. In their first four games, tight ends have only averaged 36.2 yards per game and a lowly 4.0 fantasy points per game. The Texans may be having offensive troubles, but their defense against tight ends remains solid.