Next move up to 1.12 or back down to 1.08 may depend on US more than Eurozone data – SocGen

The Euro has given back some recent gains. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes EUR/USD outlook.

There is a lot of bad news priced in to the current level

Last year’s 7.9% EUR/USD range was the second smallest since 1999 and the fact that the only year with a tighter range, 2019, came just before the outbreak of Covid suggests this is a return to normal. Hardly encouraging for FX thrill-seekers!

I would be faintly surprised if this year’s range were wider than last year’s, and the high and low are unlikely to be threatened.

As 2024 starts, however, I’m struck that there is a lot of bad news priced in to the current level. It’s fair to argue that the most recent dollar bounce, while mostly about a positioning adjustment after the Nov/Dec moves, is driven by resilient US economic data, rather than any surprises in Europe. On that basis, whether the next move for EUR/USD is up to 1.12 or back down to 1.08 may depend on the US more than Eurozone data.