New Zealand QoQ CPI inflation prints at the expected 0.5% versus previous 1.8%

• NZ CPI inflation hits its coolest price growth in three years at 0.5% QoQ.
• Annualized CPI inflation cools to 4.7%, improved but still well above the RBNZ’s 2% target.

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased further in the fourth quarter of 2023, coming in at 0.5% QoQ in-line with forecasts and cooling off further from the previous quarter’s 1.8%.

Annualized CPI inflation in New Zealand also matched expectations, coming in at 4.7% compared to the previous period’s 5.6%.

StatsNZ noted that some minor adjustments had to be made to correct previous errors in several statistics, but noted that the overall direction and magnitude of the data release was unchanged as a result of the corrections.

According to StatsNZ, rises in Housing and household utilities (up 1.1%) were driven primarily by rising household energy (up 1.9%), but were offset by declines in the Food category (down 1.2%), fueled by a steep decline in the price of fruit and vegetables (down 6.4%).

New Zealand QoQ CPI inflation has cooled to its lowest price growth in three years, reaching a peak of 2.2% in October of both 2021 and 2022.

Market Reaction

The Kiwi (NZD) saw a quick jump against the US Dollar (USD) to drag the NZD/USD briefly back into the 0.6100 handle in early Wednesday trading action, but thin markets are set to fade the move in short order.

Why NZ CPI inflation matters to traders

With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) inflation target being around the midpoint of 2%, Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication is of high significance. The trend in consumer prices tends to influence RBNZ’s interest rates decision, which in turn, heavily impacts the NZD valuation. Acceleration in inflation could lead to faster tightening of the rates by the RBNZ and vice-versa. Actual figures beating forecasts render NZD bullish.