New York Yankees Must Proceed With Caution In Upcoming Aaron Judge Arbitration Hearing

A hearing is scheduled for June 22^nd to determine the 2022 salary of New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. In his final year of arbitration eligibility, Judge is asking for $21 million while the Yankees are offering the three-time American League All-Star $17 million. Hearings are normally held in February, but Major League Baseball’s 99-day lockout did not end until March 10^th which affected business operations. Judge has avoided arbitration with the Yankees twice with one-year contracts worth $8.5 million (2020) and $10.175 million (2021). Due to the 60-game schedule in 2020, Judge’s prorated salary at approximately 37 percent was $3,148,148 according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Judge’s dominance throughout the first 10 weeks of the 2022 season cannot play a factor in the hearing as it will strictly focus on what had occurred last season. As the stars are aligning for Judge to sign a mammoth free agent contract at season’s end, a panel of arbitrators could rule in favor of the Yankees. Judge would have to settle for a 67.08 percent increase in salary instead of 106.39 percent while inflation in the United States presently sits at its highest rate in 40 years at 8.6 percent.

Judge isn’t looking to surpass the record set by right fielder Mookie Betts for a one-year contract given to an arbitration eligible ball player. In January 2020, Betts avoided arbitration with the Boston Red Sox and signed a one-year, $27 million contract. A month later, the 2018 American League Most Valuable Player was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. By July, Betts had signed a 12-year, $365 million contract extension according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Right-handed pitcher and Yankees teammate, Gerrit Cole, holds the record for a one-year contract awarded to a ball player in an arbitration hearing. In February 2019, Cole requested $13.5 million while the Houston Astros countered with $11.425 million. Regardless of what happens, Judge will set a record. If he loses, Judge’s $17 million salary will be lower than the qualifying offer of one-year, $18.4 million extended by 10 ball clubs to their 14 impending free agents this past offseason. The salary is calculated by averaging the top 125 contracts for the season of major league ball players.

Judge’s hearing will be influenced by the 2021 statistical accomplishments and salaries of Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Los Angeles Angels designated hitter and pitcher Shohei Ohtani. The American League’s 11^th unanimous Most Valuable Player, Ohtani earned $3 million last season as he had signed a two-year, $8.5 million contract extension in February 2021 according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Guerrero, Jr., the runner-up to Ohtani in the voting, earned $605,400. He avoided arbitration with the Toronto Blue Jays this past March and signed a one year, $7.9 million contract. Extraordinary surplus value was achieved by both as according to the Associated Press, the average major league salary on Opening Day in 2021 was $4.17 million.

Using Olympic parlance, Judge consistently fell short of the medals podium last season. He was an elite performer but had become synonymous with the number four. Besides finishing fourth in the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award voting, Judge also missed out on the top three in on-base percentage (.373), slugging percentage (.544), on-base plus slugging (.916), on-base plus slugging plus (149), barrels (70), and other advanced metrics according to Baseball-Reference and Statcast.

On occasion, Judge was separated from Guerrero, Jr. and Ohtani by other ball players. For instance, Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (.557) finished behind Guerrero, Jr. (.601) and Ohtani (.592) in slugging percentage. In terms of on-base plus slugging, Tucker (.917) was third behind Guerrero, Jr. (1.002) and Ohtani (.965). Last season as a member of the Oakland Athletics, first baseman Matt Olson (153) only trailed Guerrero, Jr. (167) and Ohtani (158) regarding on-base plus slugging plus.

Tucker earned $624,300 last season while Olson avoided arbitration with the Athletics on a one-year, $5 million contract. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Tucker is eligible for arbitration at the conclusion of this season and is presently earning $764,200. Olson was traded to the Atlanta Braves in March and avoided arbitration by signing an eight-year, $168 million contract extension.

Besides Guerrero, Jr. and Ohtani, Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien will be featured in the hearing as well. As a member of the Toronto Blue Jays last season, Semien finished third in the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award voting and earned $18 million during his lone season in Toronto. Prior to the lockout, Semien signed a seven-year, $175 million contract with the Rangers.

A Gold Glove Award winning second baseman and Silver Slugger last season, Semien posted the American League’s highest wins above replacement (WAR) for position ball players at 7.3 WAR and second-best overall in the league trailing Ohtani’s 9.0 WAR according to Baseball-Reference’s calculation. In comparison, Judge’s 6.0 WAR ranked fifth among position ball players and seventh overall in the American League. Unlike the trio who had finished ahead of him in the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award voting, Judge did not surpass 40 home runs, 100 runs batted in, and score 100 runs.

The New York Yankees are in a precarious situation over a $4 million difference with Aaron Judge as they attempt to convince a panel of arbitrators, he does not deserve a salary of $21 million for the 2022 season. Given the timing and unique set of circumstances surrounding the hearing, it would have been in the best interests of both parties to have avoided arbitration or agreed to a contract extension prior to the start of the season. Even if the Yankees prevail, hurt feelings on Judge’s part can adversely affect conversations regarding a long-term contract. The Yankees and Judge are a perfect marriage and let’s hope arbitration unpleasantries don’t ruin a match made in baseball heaven.