New York Yankees May Be In A Bidding War To Retain Slugger Aaron Judge

The man who has hit more home runs in one season than anyone in American League history is now free to sign with any MLB team of his choice.

New York Yankees right-handed slugger Aaron Judge, who will turn 31 in April, is now entering free agency.

The Yankees reportedly offered Judge a 7-year, $213.5M contract extension. Judge rejected the offer.

The massive Judge is 6-7 and weighs 282 pounds.

Judge was a 1st round draft pick of the Yankees out of California State University, Fresno in 2013. As the No. 32 player taken in the draft, the Yankees gave Judge a $1.8M signing bonus.

Judge played three seasons at Fresno State. He had 717 plate appearances, and hit only 18 homers, which is remarkable when one considers how far the slugger has come since college. It must be noted that Judge had a batting average of .345 when he entered the draft.

This scout’s first look at Judge came when he played for Scottsdale in the 2014 Arizona Fall League. He hit 5 doubles and 4 home runs in 106 plate appearances. He showed some major pop in his bat.

Contract Suitors:

Aaron Judge is among six players in major league history to have hit 60 or more home runs in a single season. Specifically, here is the list of the most single-season home runs:

1- Barry Bonds-73, 2001

2- Mark McGwire-70, 1998

3- Sammy Sosa-66, 1998

4- Mark McGwire-65, 1999

5- Sammy Sosa-64, 2001

6- Sammy Sosa-63, 1999

7- Aaron Judge-62, 2022

8- Roger Maris-61, 1961

9- Babe Ruth-60, 1927

Baseball historians, baseball executives, and fans continue to debate the legitimacy of the home run years for Bonds, McGwire and Sosa, during what is commonly called baseball’s “steroid era.”

It is time now for Aaron Judge to sign a new contract.

The Yankees have repeatedly expressed that signing Judge is a priority.

For his part, Judge told The Athletic he would prefer to sign with the Yankees, saying, “I’ve been clear about that since I first wore pinstripes. But, you know, we couldn’t get something done before spring training, and I’m a free agent.”

That last sentence clearly leaves the door open for another team to make an offer Judge can’t refuse.

If Judge wants to test the open MLB market, two clubs appear to be in the mix to offer competitive contracts. They include the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

San Francisco Giants:

Judge was born in Sacramento, California. Adopted by Linden, California school teachers Patty and Wayne Judge the day after he was born, Judge has roots in California.

Slugger Barry Bonds remains very close to the San Francisco Giants organization. In an interview with Sportico, Bonds said he wanted the Giants to sign Judge. “I hope he signs here,” Bonds stated. “Can it happen? I don’t know. It depends on what the Yankees payroll is. But we would love to have him, I’ll tell you that.” Of course, Bonds doesn’t have the authority to sign Judge, but his words have meaning.

According to fangraphs.com, the estimated 2023 payroll for the Giants is $132M. They were estimated to have been at $162M at the close of this season.

There seems to be plenty of payroll room to add a high impact slugger like Judge.

At this early point in the offseason, the highest paid Giants player for next season will be pitcher Carlos Rodon, who will earn $22.5M in 2023, his last before he becomes a free agent.

The Giants finished 2022 with a record of 81-81, good for third place in the competitive National League West. They were 30 games behind the division winning Los Angeles Dodgers.

Judge has expressed the same desire that burns within most baseball players. He would love to win a World Series ring.

As they are currently constructed, it will be difficult for Judge to reach that goal with the Giants. They have far too many holes on the roster to make up those 30 games to the Dodgers in one year. Of course, it could happen. And the offseason is just beginning.

Should they bring Judge home to California with a long-term contract, the Giants overall future will be much brighter.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers finished the 2022 season with a payroll estimated by fangraphs.com to have been $262M. They have exceeded the second tier of the MLB luxury tax structure, which was $250M.

Without any roster changes, they are expected to reduce their payroll to an estimated $165M for the coming season. That reduction may leave room to sign Judge.

The highest paid Dodgers player is Mookie Betts. Betts will earn an average salary of $25.5M for the next seven years.

Freddie Freeman is scheduled to earn $27M annually for the next five years.

Justin Turner has a club option worth $16M. Danny Duffy ($7M) Hanser Alberto ($2M) and Jimmy Nelson ($1.1M) also have club options.

The Dodgers, like the Giants, would be bringing Judge back home to California. That’s exactly what happened when the Dodgers brought in California native Freeman, signing him away from the Atlanta Braves.

The Dodgers finished 2022 with a 111-51 record, the best in baseball.

They lost to division and state rival San Diego in the National League Division Series, 3-1.

Judge may be the missing link to get them further in the postseason. He may be very attracted by the Dodgers depth on both sides of the ball, and their potential for annual success.

The possibility for a World Series ring would be realistic with the Dodgers.

New York Yankees:

The Yankees payroll at the end of this past season was estimated at $249M by fangraphs.com. That put them just shy of the second tier of MLB’s Luxury Tax.

Estimates put Judge’s next contract at eight years, with an annual value of $37M. For this writer, that is more like a “guesstimate.” Nobody really knows for sure.

Judge could fetch $300M. The length of the contract could be a tricky issue. How much power will Judge lose by the age of 33? 35? 38?

Any team signing Judge will have to have done a serious risk/reward analysis. Can a team project if Judge will keep his multiple skills as he ages?

A true five-tool, four-time All Star, Judge can hit for average, hit for power, run really well, play solid defense and throw out runners with a very strong and accurate arm from the outfield.

This is what Judge accomplished this past season:

He hit. 311/.425/.686/.1.111 with 62 homers, 133 runs scored, 131 RBIs, 111 walks, 16 stolen basses in 19 attempts. He struck out 175 times.

He should win the American League Most Valuable Player Award.

Yankee Stadium may be much more home run friendly to Judge than either of the San Francisco or Los Angeles home parks.

Judge’s Postseason:

The only negatives regarding the All-Worldly season Aaron Judge just finished occurred in his postseason performances.

Judge was uncharacteristically stymied in both the American League Division Series against Cleveland, and the Championship Series against Houston.

Here are the playoff stats for Judge:

Division Series: .200/.238/.500/.738 with 0 doubles, 2 homers and 3 RBIs in 21 plate appearances. He struck out 11 times. Reason for concern? Maybe.

Championship Series: .063/.118/.063/.180 with 0 doubles, 0 home runs, 0 RBIs, 0 stolen bases in 17 plate appearances. He struck out four times. Reason for concern? Maybe.

One shouldn’t put the postseason out of proportion to the regular season. However, some good pitching really fooled Aaron Judge in two consecutive series.

There have been plenty of good hitters who have struggled in the postseason when they face some of the best pitchers in the game.

Any team that will spend in excess of $30M per season (the amount he already rejected) has to weigh what driving on a couple flat tires in the postseason has done to Aaron Judge’s overall value.

Conclusions:

It would appear free agent slugger Aaron Judge will be able to choose from multiple suitors for his next contract.

For this scout, it seems the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers are the favorites to take a long-term risk on Judge for a positive reward. It may not be realistic, but perhaps even the Texas Rangers will make an offer.

The Giants may not have others in the lineup to offer protection and good pitches for Judge to see. And, hitting homers in San Francisco is fairly difficult.

The Dodgers make sense from a lineup and ballpark situation.

But when it’s all said and done, for this scout, it would appear the New York Yankees will ultimately return Aaron Judge to his pinstripes.