New Polls On January 6 (Part II) And Political Violence

In my last Forbes column, I reviewed some of the major findings from new polls conducted in anticipation of the first anniversary of the events of January 6 at the US Capitol. In this column, I dig a little deeper into an important part of the story: Americans’ willingness to engage in violence against their government. The questions make headlines, but care should be taken in interpreting their results. These are hypothetical questions, and as some of these polls show, it isn’t clear exactly what people are thinking when they answer them. My AEI colleague, Dan Cox, also has a very thought-provoking piece on the subject. 

The Washington Post/University of Maryland online panel survey asked people in mid-December, “Do you think it is ever justified for citizens to take violent action against the government, or is it never justified?” Thirty-four percent said it was justified. The pollsters helpfully added the results of five other questions conducted by telephone asked since 1995. These responses ranged from a low of 9% in an ABC News/Washington Post telephone poll in 1995 after the Oklahoma City bombing to a previous high of 23% saying violence against the government could be justified in an October 2015 survey. Forty percent of Republicans and 23% of Democrats in the new poll said violence could be justified. The pollsters followed up with the 34% who responded affirmatively by asking them under which circumstances violent actions would be justified. The question was open-ended, so the pollsters then grouped the responses. The top one, volunteered by 22%, said government violating or taking away people’s rights or freedom, or oppressing people. Fifteen percent gave responses suggesting it might be justified if the government is no longer a democracy or has become a dictatorship, if there has been a coup, or if the military has taken over. Thirteen percent of the responses were grouped as government violating the Constitution, 12% government abusing power/tyranny, and 11% if government is violent against its own citizens.

The late December CBS News/YouGov online poll asked about whether certain actions might be justifiable for citizens attempting to achieve political or policy goals. Thirteen percent said causing physical harm or injury to achieve these ends could be justified, and in another question, 13% said damaging or vandalizing property could be. Republican and Democratic responses were virtually identical.

In the mid-December NPR/Ipsos online poll, 24% said it was sometimes okay to engage in violence to protect American democracy, and in a separate question, a similar 22% gave that response about protecting American culture and values. Fewer than 10% strongly agreed with either statement. Partisans were in general agreement on this. Twenty-three percent of Democrats and 30% of Republicans agreed with the first statement; 21% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans agreed with the second one.

The CBS News/YouGov pollsters approached the subject differently with this question: “Suppose some people called for the use of force or violence to try to achieve political or policy goals. Are any of these issues so important that use of force might be justified depending on the situation, or would force never be justified?” Thirty-five percent (the high) said force might be justified on civil rights/equality issues. Twenty-four percent (the low) about abortion policies. In the six areas the pollsters probed, 65% or more said force or violence could never be justified. Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say violence could be justified over election results (38% to 21%), coronavirus or vaccine policies (27% to 23%), and guns (37% to 22%). Democrats were slightly more likely to say it could be justified over civil rights or equality (36% to 31%). But the results were similar for abortion (22% Republicans, 24% Democrats) and labor issues (25% Republicans, 26% Democrats).

These questions are important to study as Dan Cox has done. They take on a special importance because many Americans expect an increase in political violence generally and in presidential elections. To take just one, in the CBS News/YouGov poll, 38% expected the losing side in future presidential elections to accept the loss peacefully, but 62% expected there to be violence. Of the 62% expecting violence, only 2% said they themselves would be in favor of force or violence if their side didn’t win, while 72% said they would not. A quarter said it would depend on the circumstance.