Topline
Voters are roughly split between backing Republican or Democratic candidates in Tuesday’s House races, but a Washington Post-ABC News poll published Sunday shows Republicans may have a slight edge in enthusiasm, attention and turnout ahead of the midterms.
House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., … [+]
Key Facts
Some 49% of registered voters said they will vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 48% said they will cast a ballot for their local Democrat, according to the poll, while likely voters had a slightly wider split, with 50% Republican and 48% Democratic.
However, Republican respondents reported being more certain about casting a ballot in the midterms: 80% of voters leaning Republican say they have already voted or are certain to do so, compared to 74% of Democratic-leaning voters who say the same (certainty to vote among Democrats is eight percentage points lower than in the 2018 midterms, while Republicans held steady, according to the Washington Post).
There’s also a tangible attention gap between the parties, with 48% of Republican-leaving voters saying they have been following the midterm “extremely closely” or “very closely,” compared to 37% of Democratic-leaning voters (in 2018, there was very little difference between the two parties).
The survey also reflects sharp partisan divisions among voters, with more than 90% of both Republicans and Democrats saying they will vote for their party’s candidate, while likely independent voters favor Democrats (54%) over Republicans (42%) the poll found.
The Washington Post-ABC News surveyed a random national sample of 1,005 adults from October 30 to November 2, with 75% reached on cellphones and 25% percent on landlines
Big Number
5. That’s how many net seats Republicans need to gain to take control of the House.
Key Background
Most experts project Democrats are likely to lose control of the House, meaning the party will need to score clear victories in several key districts on Tuesday to keep the chamber. The Democratic Party is going into midterms at a disadvantage because more seats currently held by Democrats are considered toss-ups. An analysis in mid-October found that Democratic candidates had spent or reserved more than $167 million on ads, more than double Republican candidates’ $72 million.
Tangent
Republicans need to flip just one Senate seat to take control of the upper chamber, but projections for the Senate are far less certain than for the House, as key races in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia essentially remain tossups. FiveThirtyEight projects Republicans have a 55% chance of taking the Senate, compared to an 84% chance of taking the House.
Further Reading
These Are The Ten Races Democrats View As ‘Critical’ In Their Bid To Maintain Control Of The House (Forbes)
Democrats Are Outspending Republicans 2-To-1 To Hold Onto House (Forbes)
Meet The Billionaires Funding The Battle For Control Of The House Of Representatives (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2022/11/06/new-poll-shows-tight-race-to-control-house-but-republicans-are-more-likely-to-vote/