New Orleans Pelicans Play-In Preview

Tonight marks the most significant game for the Oklahoma City Thunder in over two years. It will be the first postseason contest for the franchise since Game 7 against the Houston Rockets in the first round of the 2020 NBA playoffs.

It’s been a very successful season for the Thunder, who are the youngest team in the NBA. It took 40 wins, but Oklahoma City landed the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference to secure a play-in matchup against the No. 9 seed, the New Orleans Pelicans.

It will be a difficult path for the Thunder to make the actual playoffs, with two road wins standing between them and a seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets, who earned the No. 1 seed in the West. Oklahoma City hasn’t been nearly as effective away from Paycom Center this season, going 16-25 on the road.

Before worrying about winning two games to make the playoffs, it’s all about staying in the moment and focusing on Wednesday night against the Pelicans.

These two teams matched up four times during the 2022-23 campaign, with New Orleans winning the season series 3-1. In the three contests the Pelicans won, each was by four points or less. The Thunder’s sole win was the most recent matchup, when the Pelicans were extremely shorthanded and lost by 14.

While this is a single elimination game, meaning what happened during the regular season doesn’t matter, there’s still quite a bit of insight that can be gained from breaking down these teams both separately and against one another.

If there’s anything that sticks out about the four regular season matchups between OKC and New Orleans, it’s the low cumulative scoring outputs. When removing the game that went to overtime (128-125), these two teams combined for an average of just
just
205 points per game.

If that continues tonight, it’s likely the Pelicans have the upper hand. They’re a team that heavily relies on defense, boasting a top six rating, and prefers a slower pace of play. Oklahoma City is top three in pace this season, while New Orleans is just below league average in that regard.

If the Thunder can speed up the game and play the way they like to, it could help reduce the Pelicans’ defensive effectiveness. While OKC has a top 15 defense, a high scoring shootout likely gives the Thunder an edge. New Orleans isn’t a highly efficient offense, mostly due to the lack of playmaking and facilitation.

With Zion Williamson still out of the rotation, the majority of the creation is out on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Ingram is a walking mismatch with the ability to shoot over smaller defenders, but the handling and movement scoring to dominate frontcourt players. McCollum is a jump shooter that always gets to his spots, whether that’s moving off-ball or creating on his own.

While they’re both fantastic scorers that can do a ton with the ball in their hands, most of the other members of the Pelicans roster need to be created for. Trey Murphy is one of the best perimeter shooters in the NBA, but certainly isn’t a player that kills teams in isolation situations on a nightly basis. Jonah Valanciunas is a big that can dominate the paint and also step out and shoot, but generally needs to be set up.

As such, really putting an emphasis on slowing down one of Ingram or McCollum should be a focal point for the Thunder. They’ve got the defensive resources to make an attempt to make life difficult for them, but there’s no way to truly shut either of them all the way down. If OKC can force the Pelicans’ complimentary scoring pieces to take a high volume of shots, that will be a step in the right direction as the offense would likely be more stagnant.

To be clear, Murphy could change this game on his own with a big night from beyond the arc. The Thunder have struggled all season when teams are able to get hot from deep. Luckily for OKC, New Orleans has only knocked down 35.3% if its triples when Murphy isn’t the one attempting them.

While Valanciunas is typically more of a tertiary scoring option, he has the upside to score 30 points and pull down 20 rebounds. Especially against a Thunder team that lacks interior size, he could have a productive night. As such, it will be imperative for Oklahoma City to have success playing small to get him off the floor. This game could go one of two ways, as Valanciunas could prove to be too much to handle all night, or he could be a liability defensively when the Thunder go small which forces the Pelicans to play a more mobile forward. We saw both scenarios play out during the regular season.

At the surface, the Pelicans aren’t a dominant rebounding team. In fact, the Thunder pulled down just four fewer boards than New Orleans over the course of the 82-game season. With that in mind, Oklahoma City allows a ton of rebounds to opposing teams which will be key to avoid in this play-in contest.

Although New Orleans is a great defensive team, it won’t be easy to slow down the Thunder. At the helm of their offense is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who finished the 2022-23 campaign as a top five scorer in the NBA. He leads the league in drives by a wide margin, which is why he gets to the line as frequently as nearly any player across the league. The Pelicans do foul quite a bit, so his ability to manufacture points from the line could be detrimental to New Orleans if the fouling isn’t limited.

The Pelicans’ best perimeter defender is Herb Jones, who arguably did the best job of any player this season guarding Gilgeous-Alexander. He possesses a unique blend of length and IQ that has made such an impact defensively early in his career. That will be a head-to-head matchup to watch, as the entire game could be dictated by what happens early. If Gilgeous-Alexander can get Jones in foul trouble, Oklahoma City will have the upper hand. Alternatively, if Jones can ensure Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t get off to a hot start and forces others to score, the Thunder could see an early deficit.

The OKC offense goes as Gilgeous-Alexander goes, there’s no doubting that. However, there’s other players on this roster that can make plays and score the ball when needed. Josh Giddey is one of the best passers in the NBA, but also scored nearly 17 points per contest in the regular season. Rookie Jalen Williams produced 18.6 points per game following the All-Star break on historic efficiency. Finally, Lu Dort is a guy that can score 20 on any given night and Isaiah Joe had 10 games in which he knocked down at least five triples this season.

Even with the complimentary scoring the Thunder has, the Pelicans would prefer for these individuals to beat them offensively over Gilgeous-Alexander. The chances of a few of them having an off night is much greater than the franchise cornerstone struggling in this one.

Given this isn’t a playoff series, in-game adjustments are of extreme importance. It’s all about maximizing the level of production of the players on the court and making the small tweaks within the 48 minutes of action.

The last time the Thunder made the postseason, Dort scored 30 points in the biggest game of his career. In that same season, Gilgeous-Alexander led the No. 5 seed Thunder in scoring during the regular season. The youngest team in the NBA obviously lacks postseason experience top to bottom, but don’t underestimate the poise OKC plays with.

If the Oklahoma City Thunder win this game, they’ll head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves on Friday in another elimination game in which the winner officially makes the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. However, the loser of that game will be done for the season.