Topline
Approximately two in five Republicans are likely to blame election fraud if the GOP doesn’t take back Congress in the November midterm elections, new Axios-Ipsos polling finds, paving the way for more possible disputes over the election results—particularly as approximately 200 candidates who disputed the election outcome in 2020 are running for Congress.
A man fills out a ballot at a voting booth on May 17 in Mt. Gilead, North Carolina.
Key Facts
The poll, conducted September 28 to September 29 among 1,004 U.S. adults, found 39% of Republicans say their party not winning control of Congress would likely be because of election fraud, including 19% who say it’s “highly likely” that would be the cause.
A smaller 36% of Republicans are unlikely to say election fraud is to blame if the GOP loses Congress, while 26% are unsure of what they’ll blame.
Only 25% of Democrats will likely point to election fraud if their party doesn’t keep control of Congress, while 60% are unlikely to say that’s the culprit of any electoral losses.
Respondents were narrowly more likely to support Democrats in the midterms, with 35% saying they’re more likely to support Democratic candidates versus 31% who will likely support Republicans (15% were unsure and 14% do not plan to vote).
A 58% majority of respondents do not believe election fraud claims from 2020 and believe that President Joe Biden “won the 2020 election fairly,” while 29% disagreed with that statement.
Big Number
202. That’s the number of candidates running for Congress who have expressed beliefs that the 2020 presidential election result was “flawed” or based on fraud, according to a Brookings Institution analysis. All candidates are Republicans, and the congressional candidates are a subset of the 345 candidates in total who are running in November after expressing distrust in the 2020 results. That also includes 47 candidates who are running for statewide elected office—like governor or secretary of state—and 96 candidates running for state legislatures.
What We Don’t Know
What will happen in November. Polling is still close on which party will gain control of Congress in the midterm elections, with an analysis of polls by FiveThirtyEight finding 45.4% of Americans on average are likely to support Democrats and 44.5% will support Republicans. Of the 202 congressional candidates the Brookings Institution identified as 2020 election deniers, 131 are likely to win their races, while 21 have a “medium” likelihood of winning and 50 candidates’ chances are low—suggesting that they could contest the election results if they lose.
Key Background
The Axios-Ipsos poll is one of numerous polls that have been conducted since the 2020 election suggesting that a sizable portion of Republicans still believe claims of election fraud, despite a lack of evidence and repeated investigations disproving there was any widespread fraud. Republicans have also reported being more distrustful in the election process as a result, with an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted in October 2021 finding only 36% of Republicans “trust that elections are fair” and 60% are confident their state and local governments “will conduct a fair and accurate election in 2022.” Many election offices have ramped up their security ahead of the midterms in anticipation of harassment and potential violence from people who contest election results, Reuters reports, as election workers have faced ongoing threats and harassment in the wake of 2020. Some Republicans have already started with voting challenges even ahead of Election Day, as the New York Times reports right-wing activists have already challenged tens of thousands of voter registrations in battleground states and tried to have them thrown out as inaccurate or fraudulent.
Further Reading
Two Americas Index: Must be fraud (Axios)
Democracy on the ballot—How many election deniers are on the ballot in November and what is their likelihood of success? (Brookings Institution)
U.S. election offices tighten security for Nov. 8 midterms (Reuters)
Activists Flood Election Offices With Challenges (New York Times)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/10/10/nearly-40-of-republicans-will-blame-election-fraud-if-party-loses-in-midterms-poll-finds/