Topline
Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s lead against TV personality Mehmet Oz (R) in the race for the Pennsylvania Senate is fading just two weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll released as the candidates are set to meet Tuesday in their first and only debate.
GREENSBURG, PA – MAY 06: Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks at a … [+]
Key Facts
Fetterman netted the support of 51% of voters, while 49% back Oz in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,084 registered voters (margin of error -/+ 4.1) released Tuesday, representing a decline in support for Fetterman from a month ago when he led Oz by five points.
Republican voters have become more decisively pro-Oz over the past month, and 94% now say they will vote for him, compared to 87% in a September CBS/YouGov survey, putting a significant dent in Fetterman’s lead, which was more than 10 points in mid-September, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Enthusiasm among voters backing Fetterman has declined sharply over the past month – in September, 63% said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, compared to 47% in the latest survey, though Fetterman backers are still more enthusiastic about voting for him than Oz’s voters—30% say they are very enthusiastic about voting for Oz (down from 36% a month ago).
Hot-button controversies in the race – Fetterman’s health following a stroke in May and whether Oz actually lives in Pennsylvania – are less important to voters than issues that affect the everyday lives of Pennsylvanians: more than 80% said the economy and inflation, gas prices, crime, abortion, and opioid addiction were “important” for the candidates to discuss in their debate, compared to less than 50% saying Fetterman’s health and Oz’s residency were important.
Indicating high voter engagement, 64% said they were somewhat or very likely to watch Tuesday’s debate, while 36% said they were not very likely or not at all likely to tune in.
Key Background
The results of Tuesday’s CBS/YouGov are consistent with other recent polls that show the race has significantly narrowed. Fetterman has just a 2.3 point advantage in polls overall, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Cook Political Report also changed its forecast on the race in early October from lean Democrat to a toss-up. Throughout the campaign, Oz and his team have hammered Fetterman over whether he is healthy enough to serve following his stroke in May, and the controversy ballooned earlier this month when an NBC reporter publicly questioned Fetterman’s ability to engage in small talk after she interviewed him in a segment that focused heavily on his health. Fetterman, meanwhile, has used his stroke to cast himself as a candidate who understands the hardships of everyday Pennsylvanians and highlight his stance to guarantee healthcare coverage for every American.
Big Number
55. The percentage of survey respondents who said Fetterman is healthy enough to serve, down from 59% in September.
Further Reading
Fetterman Ad Raises Stroke Amid Controversy As Oz Distances Himself From Campaign’s Attacks (Forbes)
Fetterman’s Doctor Says He’s Fit To Serve In Senate After Stroke (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2022/10/25/penn-senate-race-near-tie-as-republicans-rally-around-oz-narrowing-fettermans-lead/