Near term upside risk – OCBC

Ishiba will remain as PM after receiving support from parliament after 2 rounds of voting in a special parliamentary session yesterday. USD/JPY drifted higher; last at 153.83 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is mild bearish

“Ishiba will lead the minority government with LDP-Komeito coalition, alongside the support from Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on a confidence and supply agreement (while staying out of the coalition).”

“DPP wants to raise the income ceiling for tax payments and had previously critic the BoJ for raising rates. Markets may also ‘speculate’ that BoJ may not hike this year, further adding to JPY weakness. USDJPY inched higher this morning.”

“Daily momentum is mild bearish, but RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 154.80 (recent high) and 156.50 (76.4% fibo). Support at 153.30 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low), 151.70 levels (21, 200 DMAs), 150.70 (50% fibo).”