NBA Western Conference Win Projections For 2022-23 Season

Tuesday, Oct. 18 marks the beginning of the NBA’s 76th season. With a third of the league having a realistic shot at reaching the Finals and playing for a championship, most of the sure-fire contenders are out West.

After a bit of a down season due to major injuries, the West is looking fierce. From veteran teams looking to keep their window open to young and athletic groups trying to carve their own path to the top, it’s a conference that will supply fascinating matchups every night.

It’s time to examine each team and project how the standings will look next April. After assigning wins to all 30 teams in the league (East projections coming soon), the West had 613 total victories with 411 coming from the playoff seeds (1-8). The East actually had more total wins (617), but fewer from the playoff spots (402).

1. LA Clippers

Projected record: 57-25

Change from 2021-22: +15

Ceiling: 1st

Floor: 4th

The 2023 Clippers will be a joy to watch on a nightly basis if you love small-ball versatility and a beautifully spread offense. There will be All-Star guards and wings screening for each other, making plays out of the short roll, and forcing the opponent to adjust to their style.

I previously wrote about LA’s roster construction and why it’s tailor-made for both regular season and playoff success. More than any iteration of the Kawhi and PG-led Clippers, this team has answers to every problem they’ll face when the chips are down.

Leonard’s movement and burst in the preseason looked encouraging after 15 months of rehab and time away from competitive basketball. This projection of 57 wins assumes he’ll play between 55-58 games, missing scheduled back-to-backs and factoring in the usual wear-and-tear. The big number for the Clippers entering this season, though, is 45 – that will be how many games Leonard and George need to play together if they want a shot at the top seed.

Although we’ve been top-heavy teams that proved to be juggernauts (KD-Steph Warriors), there hasn’t been an NBA team in the last 20 years to match the depth of these 2023 Clippers. When Luke Kennard and Terance Mann are fighting for consistent minutes in the rotation, it’s a sign that you’re loaded.

John Wall brings an element Ty Lue has wanted for the last two years. Even at 32 years old and not playing in a calendar year, Wall is still springy, lightning quick in transition, and most importantly, decisive with the ball. He looked better than expected during the preseason and should fit well next to the starters or bench units. In transition frequency and efficiency, expect this team to rise from the bottom of the league to middle of the pack.

Wall’s ability to get two feet in the paint on his line drives will unlock a new dimension to LA’s paint-and-spray offense. They were already generating high-quality, open threes during the 2021 season when Leonard and George were the main attackers. With more halfcourt speed to get downhill, good luck guarding these guys.

It’s not going to matter which point guard the Clippers start between Wall and Reggie Jackson. Both will bring something different to the table. But when it’s closing time, Leonard and George will have the ball in their hands dictating most of the action. Lue will also try to get his all-wing lineups as many reps as possible before the playoffs, when they will be deployed against bigger teams to create advantages.

The Clippers have never been the No. 1 seed in franchise history. But when you have Norman Powell and Nic Batum coming off the bench and filling in for starters that will inevitably miss games, that’s one of the best insurance policies in the league.

The last time Leonard took a year off with injury, he came back with a vengeance and reminded everyone why he should be feared. Similar vibes are floating through Los Angeles heading into this campaign.

2. Golden State Warriors

Projected record: 55-27

Change from 2021-22: +2

Ceiling: 1st

Floor: 5th

Will the Dubs start this season just like last year, winning 18 of their first 20 games and thrashing opponents with a league-leading defense? Probably not.

They also don’t need to. Even in a loaded and revived West, there is a path for Golden State to have a better record just by having a durable rotation and managing minutes.

The defending champs suffered a handful of setbacks from January to March, resulting in the Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green trio playing 11 total minutes together. Thompson won’t be starting this season on the shelf, and his performance down the stretch of the Finals was more indicative of what we’ll see moving forward – his defensive impact flew under the radar a bit due to Curry setting the world on fire.

I don’t expect Green to miss 36 games again, although you can never use a crystal ball when discussing injuries. The aftermath of Green’s superman punch on Jordan Poole might create an awkward environment for the first month, but one thing fans seem to forget is how busy the NBA schedule is. With games every other day, constant travel, and practices throughout the week, there’s ample time for teammates to be around each other and resolve locker room issues.

While it’s risky to project a win increase for a rotation that lost a valuable floor-spacer and rebounder in Otto Porter Jr. and defensive guru Gary Payton II, the Dubs are banking on a youth injection making up for those losses. You will see sophomores Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga getting a heavier share of minutes.

Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green are more than just serviceable replacements, too. Both have experience on deep playoff squads with title aspirations. Both will make the extra pass to give up good shots for excellent ones.

Based on the limited preseason action we’ve seen, James Wiseman is set to give Curry a new pick-and-roll partner that enhances Golden State’s vertical spacing. It’s a dynamic they’ve lacked since JaVale McGee departed in 2018. They will likely have to feed Wiseman the occasional post touch to keep him dialed in, but you can’t teach his athleticism. Just having another strong, enormous body to set bruising screens will help unlock pull-up opportunities for Poole and Thompson in bench units.

Kerr will drive fans crazy with his offensive approach during the regular season, but how do you argue with the results? Yes, there will be a smaller proportion of the offense dedicated to Curry’s on-ball brilliance. Yes, he will be saving a lot of their simpler, deadlier actions for the playoffs. Get used to it. The formula has worked plenty of times and resulted in four championship parades.

Last year was THE year for Andrew Wiggins. You saw everything come together at the right time, on both ends of the floor, and he became the best version of himself to ultimately be the second-best player on a title team.

Although he may be excluded from the All-Star team this year, Wiggins should be even better in 2023. Personally, I can’t wait to see how he matches up with the Clippers’ star wings.

3. Phoenix Suns

Projected record: 54-28

Change from 2021-22: -10

Ceiling: 1st

Floor: 6th

I can’t bring myself to be worried about Phoenix heading into this year, at least in terms of winning regular season games. Quite frankly, it comes down to whether or not you believe the drama surrounding Deandre Ayton’s contract situation was overblown. I happen to think it was – he still got paid and will be a more integral part of their offense this season. If anything, the motivation stemming from their playoff debacle and his lack of involvement should lead to Ayton being more forceful, with both his play style and locker room presence.

The Jae Crowder predicament is the only reason I refrained from giving them the No. 1 seed for a second straight year. For all of his flaws, Crowder is still a stretch four that defenses respected, thus creating extra room for Devin Booker and Chris Paul to operate. His presence will be missed on both ends, as he was their strong veteran wing that could take on defensive assignments against bulkier forwards.

Until the Suns find a trade – and it will be challenging to replace him with someone who matches his impact for their bench units – they will be putting more of a burden on the starters. Phoenix’s depth is among the worst of any contender in the league. This is a huge year for Landry Shamet, who hasn’t fully put everything together offensively. With a rotation desperate for more shot creation, they could benefit from Shamet taking a major step and becoming more of a dual scoring threat.

For Phoenix to hit the over on their win total (52.5) and reach this projection, Mikal Bridges becomes the most important player on the team. On an X-factor scale, he might even be in the top five of the league. If he demonstrates more off-the-dribble burst and is more deliberate with his screen-and-roll usage, it should unlock more off-ball opportunities for Paul and Booker.

Most of the responsibility will fall on Monty Williams to encourage more on-ball usage from Bridges and Cam Johnson. The Suns already have a diverse offensive playbook, so I have little doubt he’ll be afraid to implement new wrinkles for his wings to get downhill and attack against a spread defense.

When Paul, Booker, and Ayton were active last season, the Suns were 31-7, the equivalent of a 67-win unit. With those three on the court, they scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions (91st percentile of all three-man lineups) with a +8.6 net rating. It was a deadly group that showed how efficient a high pick-and-roll offense can be, particularly when they utilize their ‘Snap’ actions where all three are involved.

Williams does have some repairing to do in the locker room, but he knows that winning cures all. Ayton is going to receive more touches and opportunities to create with the ball in his hands, whether it’s on the roll or in the post. Ayton is still one of the league’s top screen-setters because of his frame and timing. That’s why I’m optimistic Paul still has another dynamic year left in him. In the regular season, where teams are playing drop coverage more than any other defensive style, he’ll remain the NBA’s mid-range king.

What the Suns absolutely need to work on this year is diversifying their shot profile. Perhaps Bridges is ready to help solve the lack of free throws with his ability to attack and draw contact. And the mid-rangers are still necessary late in games. But there is no reason this team should be 25th in three-point frequency, generating only 33% of their shots from the outside. If they can hunt more threes, especially off Ayton’s rim gravity, they may be a stone cold lock for a top two seed.

We’re dropping them 10 wins from last season, which feels more than fair. It doesn’t make sense to go lower unless there’s a negative return for Crowder.

4. Denver Nuggets

Projected record: 51-31

Change from 2021-22: +3

Ceiling: 1st

Floor: 6th

The case for Denver being a top seed in the West is pretty cut and dry. They have arguably the best player on Earth, even if Milwaukee fans would refute it. Two starters – Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. – are returning after playing just nine combined games last year. We only saw glimpses of what Denver’s full starting lineup could do in 2021 after trading for Aaron Gordon. In an extremely small sample of 117 minutes, the Jokić-Murray-Gordon-Porter Jr. quartet thrashed opponents with a 126.4 offensive rating.

Also, it’s not like Murray and Porter Jr. will have to learn a new system. Any adjustment period will be minimal. The Nuggets desperately missed Murray’s genius pull-up game that made their pick-and-roll so dynamic. Without him putting pressure on defenders to fight around screens, or baiting a switch so Denver can exploit mismatches, too much of the burden was placed on Jokić. Often, he was asked to make something out of nothing.

We’ll see if Porter Jr. has made any defensive improvements. But just having another threat spaced around Jokić and Murray’s ball-screen action will make a monumental difference. Denver didn’t have the necessary shot-making to give opponents any stress last year, evidenced by their struggles in the first round. In his last full season (2021), Porter Jr. shot 133-of-286 on catch-and-shoot triples. That was 46.5%, placing him fourth in the NBA among all 86 players to attempt at least 200 shots.

This team played at a 54-win pace during the shortened 72-game schedule in 2021, and you can definitely say they are deeper two years later. Bruce Brown operating as a screener and playmaker gives Michael Malone even more opportunities to use inverted pick-and-rolls with Jokić surveying at the top. Also, if the Nuggets elect to use more switching schemes, Brown has two years of experience being asked to switch practically anything on defense.

Although losing Monte Morris in a trade looked rough at first, the fit of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in this offense looks spectacular. He’s played on a championship team, knows how to perfect his role, and is capable of attacking the middle of the floor when defenders rush him off the line. Most importantly, when he finds a rhythm, those defenders will stick to him like glue.

This should be the year Jokić has the most room to breathe, in one-on-one scoring situations and when he’s searching for cutters, which is why I’m not so sure a third MVP is out of the question. He also just never misses time. He’s played in 96.8% of the Nuggets’ regular season games since October 2018.

Denver goes about nine or 10 deep, but we know injuries are bound to pop up for every team throughout the long schedule. Going over 49.5 wins was relatively easy, but you don’t want to go too high before it’s clear how Murray and Porter Jr. look. This felt like the sweet spot for a team that understands homecourt in the first round is important to grab, but they are focused on being healthy and whole for a deep playoff run.

Ummm, we didn’t really need to see another DeAndre Jordan experiment.

T5. Memphis Grizzlies

Projected record: 50-32

Change from 2021-22: -6

Ceiling: 2nd

Floor: 7th

A lot of folks really don’t understand how great Memphis was last year. They weren’t a fluky 56-win team that lucked into wins. They outscored teams by 6.2 points per 100 possessions and were one of two teams to finish top five in offensive and defensive rating. Phoenix was the other.

Fun fact about the Grizzlies, by the way: Last season was technically the best offensive team in franchise history. In their 27 years of existence before 2021-22, they had never finished at least two points above the league-average offensive rating. Taylor Jenkins lifted them to new heights while Ja Morant and Desmond Bane made sure the Grizzlies were must-watch TV.

It’s hard to believe we still have another 15-plus years of watching Ja Morant. He’s the most entertaining star in the league, hands down. He can even make preseason action feel significant.

From what we’ve heard, Jaren Jackson Jr.’s injury shouldn’t affect them too much. He had surgery in late June to repair a stress fracture in his foot. But he looks good in workouts and should be back in November. But if he’s missing 15-20 games, that could be all it takes for them to slip a couple spots compared to last season. Jackson is one of the NBA’s premier defensive talents, particularly as a backline rim protector. Last year, 90 players contested at least 200 shots in the restricted area. He ranked second in efficiency allowed, holding opponents to just 49.3% at the rim.

Losing De’Anthony Melton could be a bigger hit to their regular season depth than most anticipate. He was fifth on the team in total minutes, soaking up those backup playmaking duties and offering reliable shooting for a group that was often starving for more.

The West was a bit down last year, due to the Clippers and Nuggets not having their full lineups. At their peak, both of those teams have stronger closing units and better, top-tier superstars with some veteran experience.

It would be unwise to put the Grizzlies below fifth. They proved they can stay above water when adversity hits, and Bane is perfectly capable of leading the charge if Morant misses time again.

T5. New Orleans Pelicans

Projected record: 50-32

Change from 2021-22: +14

Ceiling: 3rd

Floor: Play-in

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected record: 48-34

Change from 2021-22: +2

Ceiling: 5th

Floor: Play-in

8. Dallas Mavericks

Projected record: 46-36

Change from 2021-22: -6

Ceiling: 4th

Floor: Play-in

Even before the preseason, I thought I’d be irrationally high on New Orleans. After seeing their depth in the exhibitions and sorting through the West, I realized any hype surrounding this team is completely rational. The Pelicans are going to be one badass offensive unit.

Led by a determined and visibly lean Zion Williamson, they are one of the few teams in the West that can be frightening with big lineups through bully-ball, while also having the personnel to play small and run you off the floor.

Without Zion last year, New Orleans ranked fourth in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage by grabbing 28.8% of their own misses. In the playoffs, that elevated to 35.7% – a disgusting number that nearly put Phoenix on the brink. Yet, their halfcourt offense only produced 91.2 points per 100 possessions during last season, putting them 27th overall in halfcourt efficiency. That’s precisely the impact Williamson brings to the court. He’s going to clean up misses and do it efficiently.

We’re also talking about a player who, in his last full season, posted the seventh-highest efficiency among anyone in NBA history to attempt 1,000 or more two-pointers. He was 20 years old, with the rest of the top 10 on that list being an average of 26.4. And now, he’s in even better shape.

Brandon Ingram is coming off a postseason series where he averaged 27 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists on 58.4% true shooting. CJ McCollum, fresh off a contract extension that was good for both sides, is still in the final years of his prime and has experience toggling between on-ball and off-ball duties. It’s a wonderful fit next to Ingram and Williamson, and I expect to see Willie Green utilizing McCollum in more guard-screening actions for him to confuse the defense (think of Klay Thompson). If McCollum and Williamson run a couple inverted pick-and-rolls each game, I might faint.

Fans should hammer the over for New Orleans if it’s 44.5 or 45.5, depending on the betting site. Herb Jones’ defensive intensity (and the fact he gets more joy out of making someone’s life miserable instead of taking a vacation) should be the only reason you need. Willie Green is doing a phenomenal job with this core, and the depth alone should be enough to get the Pelicans into the 49-50 win range assuming decent health.

While the Nets and Hawks are the two toughest East teams to gauge, look no further than Dallas and Minnesota out West. One gained a top-20 player that should stabilize their defense, the other refused to pay their second-best playoff performer from last year and couldn’t replace him.

The Wolves’ core talent is superior to Dallas, but they went all-in on a roster without a bona fide superstar that has proven he can demolish playoff defenses. The Mavericks have one. It just happens to be a guy currently on track to have the greatest career in basketball. No big deal.

Rudy Gobert’s fit with Karl Towns won’t be seamless. There should be real concerns about the positioning on offense, as Towns is at his best when he’s involved in the primary action. It does make you question how often Towns will be used as a spot-up threat around the initial pick-and-roll action with Gobert screening and diving to the rim. That’s something the Wolves needed doses of last year, to give D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards more options once they break into the middle of the floor. However, Towns is too stupendous of a talent to be relegated to the weak-side.

But you can’t deny Gobert’s unmatched screening and the effect it’s going to have on Edwards, who I think will sneakily take over as the Wolves’ best player in the next 12 months.

Defensively, Minnesota’s floor should be around 12th in points allowed per possession. While they will miss Patrick Beverley’s aggression at the point-of-attack, they are getting a fierce rim protector that will discourage all shots in the restricted area and force teams to shoot more mid-rangers and pull-up threes. That’s why it’s imperative Russell shows more commitment on the defensive end. His effectiveness in drop coverage schemes — fighting over screens and recovering for rearview contests – will be sort of a bellwether for how good they can be.

Keeping Jaden McDaniels was paramount in Minnesota’s pursuit of Gobert. The 22-year-old forward, who will be starting, is primed for a leap in production. He shot 58% from two last season, including 72.6% at the rim, with competent defense on the wing. The Wolves need him to progress back to league average from downtown (31.7% last year after shooting 36.4% as a rookie). The catch-and-shoot opportunities will absolutely be there, especially with Gobert’s vertical threat pulling in the defense and forcing help.

If there’s a team making me nervous about a projection, it’s Dallas. Luka Dončić with a spaced floor is a demon whose buttons you don’t want to push. His methodical approach to every possession is exhausting for teams to handle, combined with the expert mismatch hunting and how many clean looks he generates for Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

It feels disrespectful to put them eighth after a West Finals berth. Dončić is one of those future Hall-of-Famers that you can almost guarantee will net you 50 wins a season. To be fair, this is not far off that mark, or even well below their over/under of 48.5 wins. It’s just based on them not having a productive offseason, on top of other West contenders having more depth to withstand injuries.

Hardaway Jr. returning should help mitigate the loss of Jalen Brunson as a secondary ball-handler. Still, Dallas was outscoring opponents last season by over four points per 100 possessions when Dončić rested. I’m pessimistic that will continue, even if Christian Wood is an attractive piece off the bench.

9. Los Angeles Lakers

Projected record: 40-42

Change from 2021-22: +7

Ceiling: 6th

Floor: Miss play-in

10. Sacramento Kings

Projected record: 36-46

Change from 2021-22: +6

Ceiling: 8th, Play-in

Floor: Miss Play-in

11. Portland Trail Blazers

Projected record: 34-48

Change from 2021-22: +7

Ceiling: 9th, Play-in

Floor: Miss Play-in

This cluster of teams should be labeled, “Don’t trust us.” These are the groups you should stay away from when doing any over/under bets. With the Lakers and Blazers, there are just too many factors at play, with the potential downsides outweighing the number of paths to a best-case scenario.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis played just 22 games together last year, going 11-11 and being outscored by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. While the pendulum has swung too far on Davis and he’s now underrated on a national scale, he feels due for a bounce-back year. He won’t mirror his New Orleans production, but I’d be careful writing him off for an All-NBA spot in April.

Pinpointing how much buy-in Russell Westbrook will exhibit this year is an impossible task. He’s fully aware this is his final year in Los Angeles, and he may not make it halfway through the season before the Lakers find a trade partner.

This LA roster just lacks excitement. They are starving for outside shooting, as well as size on the perimeter to challenge any top-flight wing they’ll face. Patrick Beverley will provide the grit and leadership to hold his teammates accountable on defense, but he will often be too small to contain other teams’ high-usage stars. Asking LeBron, in year 20, to absorb more of those responsibilities might be unwise. His defensive ability is still there in moments, but the focus and attentiveness have taken a major dip since the bubble.

The Lakers’ over/under being 45.5 felt high, since that’s much closer to their ceiling than reasonable expectation. James has missed 53 of the 154 total regular season games over the last two years. His 38th birthday is in two months. After nearly two decades of invincibility, are we to the point where he’s expected to be sidelined for 15-plus games a year? If that repeats for a third consecutive season, trusting the Lakers to have a winning record is foolish.

Kendrick Nunn automatically becomes the most fascinating piece on the team because they didn’t have his secondary creation last year. He should fit a similar role to KCP’s Laker tenure, at least offensively. The last time Nunn was on the floor (2020-21), he scored 17.8 points per 36 minutes on 59.6% true shooting – his finishing at the rim was exceptional, on top of being a solid spot-up option.

It’s a good thing Austin Reaves got plenty of opportunities last year as a rookie (23.2 minutes), because he’s likely to be LA’s third-most impactful player on most nights. His IQ, spatial awareness, and propensity to cut are exactly what the team needs. But he doesn’t necessarily help the fact they are extremely light on shooting and the gravity that usually comes as a result.

Contrary to a team with high volatility, such as Brooklyn, the Lakers enter this season with the smallest seeding range in the league. At their best, led by two alphas, they can max out as a 48-win team with hopes to avoid the play-in. Although, if Westbrook is still on the roster, that would require head coach Darvin Ham benching him in fourth quarters. At their worst, they repeat the disastrous 2021-22 season, winning between 33-35 games with various injuries before they can reconfigure the rotation next summer.

Sacramento needed a significant defensive overhaul, so the Mike Brown hiring should be a breath of fresh air. Their average rank in defensive rating over the last five seasons is 24.8, and that will need to climb closer to league average to reach the play-in. Crafting a reliable defense in lineups featuring De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, and Domantas Sabonis will require a lot of reps to figure out. If it’s possible, Brown should be able to find the right schemes to make those groups passable.

If KZ Opala is penciled in as their starter, I’m more optimistic about the Kings soaring past their over/under of 33.5 wins. He has the size and length to be a disruptive wing-stopper. Stationed around the Fox and Sabonis two-man game, Opala will enjoy more wide-open looks than he’s had in his basketball career. This fit reminds me a little of the Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless contributions in Portland – the Blazers had to live with the cold streaks from those two wings because their defense sorely needed them on the floor.

Just from what we’ve seen, though, Opala has a clean shooting stroke and won’t shy away from pulling the trigger. Sacramento is hoping to mold him into an impactful 3-and-D piece that can eventually close games for them. Only 63 games into his NBA career, he’s displayed excellent cutting instincts and an unselfish attitude that could be huge in lineups with two high-caliber shooters (Huerter and Barnes), a dynamic roller in Sabonis, and a floor general in Fox that can easily get to the rim.

Based purely off of talent, the Kings are closer to a .500 team. This year, they strike me as the group that’s always in tight games, making life miserable for contenders coming through Sacramento.

But every year, there are one or two teams that underachieve in the win column versus how their net rating would project. For instance, last year’s Spurs had the statistical profile of a 40-win team (17th offensively, 16th defensively). Yet, they won 34 games because of how talented and tough the West opponents were. In a more stacked conference this time around, the Kings feel like a better version of last year’s Spurs. The formula is certainly there and Sacramento should be a top-10 league pass team, but the ceiling is concrete when you consider the personnel of teams above them.

I’m sorry Portland natives, but the Blazers might be the team I’m least excited for. Sure, any time Damian Lillard is back on the floor, it’s fun to see how he audacious he can be with his range. Anfernee Simons is quietly turning into an elite shooter that could make this duo better offensively than the Lillard-McCollum pairing – at least in theory.

But there’s no clear direction for the Blazers. They brought in Gary Payton II and Jerami Grant to beef up their perimeter defense that haunted them over the last couple years, but there will be too many mistakes for those guys to make up for. Jusuf Nurkic is a step slower than he used to be, and they just have a lot of role players I don’t really trust in big moments.

The Blazers will hover around .500 for most of the season, but there is little-to-no hope of them winning games Lillard misses.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected record: 26-56

Change from 2021-22: +2

13. Houston Rockets

Projected record: 24-58

Change from 2021-22: +4

14. Utah Jazz

Projected record: 22-60

Change from 2021-22: -27

15. San Antonio Spurs

Projected record: 20-62

Change from 2021-22: -14

Fans should know by now, a bad team doesn’t always equate to a boring one. More than any year I can remember, this final group has electrifying stars that actually keep you intrigued throughout a season.

Originally, I thought OKC might be too good for this tier. After going 5-1 in preseason action, 26 regular season wins might be a breeze. However, after eight years, I’ve learned to not put too much stock into preseason records.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was sidelined with a grade two MCL sprain, should be returning shortly after the regular season begins. Although they have incentives to lose 60 games and be at the bottom yet again, Gilgeous-Alexander is just too gifted of a talent to not pick up random wins against mid-tier contenders who don’t take OKC seriously. Every year, Lu Dort has boosted has shot volume and scoring averages. With the green light he certainly has (Dort took 7.7 threes per game last year!), all it’s going to take is one year of above-average three-point shooting to make things interesting for this offense.

Josh Giddey is also too smart and impactful of a player to not make a difference, especially in games OKC hosts the other bottom-feeding groups. Just from a talent perspective and taking into account the defensive culture Mark Daigneault is working toward, they deserve a two-win increase from last season. But OKC is still incredibly young, which will keep them deep in the lottery.

I’m probably more fascinated by the Rockets’ core, simply due to the flashiness and supreme confidence that exudes from Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., and newly-drafted Tari Eason. For a completely fake an arbitrary award, I’m placing the 2023 Rockets in the running for the “most enjoyable sub-30 win team in league history.”

Expect Green to be above the 24-point per game mark this season. The self-creation and step-back threat is too crisp for a guy that’s still 20 years old. Never once did I understand the harsh criticism of his style last year. He was drafted to be the franchise’s next perennial All-Star and All-NBA candidate for the future. Young guards should be allowed to go through as many growing pains as possible for their first couple seasons.

Green kept his turnover rate down (only 11.3% despite a high rookie usage) and proved that he can attack off a ball-screen in many different ways to keep defenders guessing. These guys don’t have to be generational passers from day one in the NBA. I’m betting on his playmaking chops taking a meaningful step forward this year.

Smith Jr. only played in one preseason game after suffering an ankle sprain, but he looks to be on track to return for the regular season opener. If I had to pick a Rookie of the Year heading into the season, it would be him. He projects to be a dynamite shooter that knows how to break down a defense off the dribble.

If we see Alperen Sengun get plenty of time with the starters, they could go as high as three or four wins above their over/under of 23.5. He may still be too turnover prone, but there’s no denying the talent is there to complement Houston’s speedy guards. I expect this team to be atop the league in pace this season, running after every turnover and defensive rebound.

The Spurs are in a developmental year, but Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Josh Primo will be making their way onto highlight reels every night. The race between San Antonio and Utah for Victor Wembanyama will be epic. By the trade deadline, we shouldn’t expect to see Mike Conley or Jordan Clarkson on the Jazz as they race to the bottom of the standings.