Navy Shortfall In P-8 Antisubmarine Aircraft Could Be A Problem For The Air Force Too

For the last ten years, the U.S. Navy has been fielding the world’s most advanced maritime patrol aircraft, a militarized version of the BoeingBA
737 jetliner that can fly farther and faster than the Cold War turboprops it replaces.

Designated the P-8A Poseidon, it is often referred to as an antisubmarine aircraft because of its sophisticated suite of sensors and weapons for finding, fixing and finishing off hostile subs.

But Poseidon is much more than that: it also tracks and targets hostile surface vessels, conducts reconnaissance over land and water, serves as a communications node for coalition forces, and performs search-and-rescue missions.

Poseidon is a case study in successful program management by plane-maker Boeing, which has delivered 117 P-8s to the Navy on time and under budget—including during the pandemic, when many other weapons programs faltered due to workforce disruptions and supply-chain problems. Boeing contributes to my think tank.

However, only three years after validating an operational requirement for 138 P-8s in 2018, the Navy cut its planned buy to 128—apparently in response to budget constraints.

The timing was not good. China was steadily increasing the size of its undersea and surface fleet (including with ballistic-missile subs capable of hitting America from launch sites in the South China Sea), and Navy planners had decided to cut the buy of Triton maritime surveillance drones from 65 to 27.

Poseidon was supposed to operate in tandem with Triton to police the world’s oceans. Cutting both parts of the antisubmarine air fleet implied a major shortfall in future capabilities.

And that was before Russia invaded Ukraine, a move signaling that any future restraint by Moscow concerning how it deployed its own naval forces around the globe was unlikely. Russian subs have repeatedly been detected operating in the waters near America’s NATO allies, including around the British Isles.

The bottom line is that as the maritime threat grows, the U.S. Navy is shrinking its fleet of manned and unmanned patrol aircraft. Even when the P-8s of half a dozen overseas partners are included in totals, it appears the future fleet of manned antisubmarine aircraft will only be about a third the size of the Cold War force—183 planes versus 560 not so long ago.

Of course, today’s patrol planes are far better than those of the past. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday describes Poseidon as “the most effective platform we have” for both wide-area search and localization of maritime threats. But like their Cold War predecessors, each Poseidon aircraft can only be in one place at a time.

The Navy needs a force of P-8s at least as large as its validated warfighting requirement, and maybe larger given how threats are changing. Boeing is pressing Congress to fund the remaining increment of ten P-8s.

Now there is another reason why the full requirement should be funded—a reason few observers have noticed that could have big consequences for a sister service.

As noted above, the P-8 airframe is based on the Boeing 737 commercial transport. However, it does not use the 737 MAX airframe that the company currently builds for commercial carriers, it uses a previous variant called the Next Generation, or 737NG.

Over 7,000 737NGs have been built, giving the P-8 a built-in logistics network around the world. However, the only thing sustaining production of the NG at this point is military orders, meaning mainly U.S. and allied demand for the P-8.

The problem the Air Force faces is that it wants to acquire a replacement of the aging E-3 AWACS radar plane using the same variant of the 737, and current Navy plans might not keep the production line and workforce intact long enough to be ready for building the Air Force plane.

Designated the E-7, the Air Force’s future radar plane is critical to monitoring global airspace and managing air operations. The service says it needs 26 aircraft, and last month awarded a sole-source contract to Boeing for its development.

The development process probably will not take long, because the AWACS successor will be an evolved version of the Wedgetail radar plane operated by Australia. But the Air Force has a raft of upgrades it wants to install on its version, so Boeing can’t just start turning out more Wedgetails.

If the NG line gaps between the end of P-8 production and the beginning of E-7 production, then the Air Force will need to reconstitute both the work force and the supply chain, a process fraught with uncertainty. Filling out the Navy requirement with ten more P-8s would largely solve the problem, but Boeing assembles Poseidons at a rate of one per month, so it won’t be long before the Navy’s existing order for 128 planes is completed.

After that, the only orders keeping the line warm are those from allies. The 737NG line is thus fragile; if the Navy is not funded to its full requirement on P-8 or there are hiccups in allied plans, the Air Force’s follow-on buy faces significant uncertainties.

That is an unwelcome possibility given how decrepit the AWACS fleet has become. The head of Air Combat Command, Gen. Mark Kelly, says his service is “20 years late” developing a successor to AWACS, and describes the existing E-3 fleet as being in “hospice care.” The Air Force can’t tolerate any delays in its replacement plan.

The logic of buying ten more P-8s thus extends well beyond the growing maritime threat presented by China and Russia. Just as the Navy conducts antisubmarine missions in support of the entire joint force and U.S. allies, so the Air Force provides global air surveillance for the same diverse population of warfighters.

Keeping the 737NG line running is thus pivotal to executing military plans. Stopping short of the Navy’s validated warfighting requirement is risky, and trying to build the Air Force’s future radar plane on an airframe other than the 737NG is utterly impractical.

Congress and the Biden administration need to think this through.

As noted above, Boeing contributes to my think tank.