Munetaka Murakami of Japan reacts after strike out thrown by Italy’s starting pitcher Ryan Castellani during the first inning of the quarterfinal game between Italy and Japan at the World Baseball Classic (WBC) at Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan, Thursday, March 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Toru Hanai)
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Japan’s greatest aces made the jump to MLB in each of the last two offseasons. Now the nation’s premier slugger is on the way. Munetaka Murakami expects to be posted this winter according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
Murakami blasted 24 home runs in 263 plate appearances this season for the Yakult Swallows, posting a .286/.392/.659 batting line. He has a .945 OPS over his eight-year career with 265 home runs. His best season was in 2022 when he set a single-season record for a Japanese-born player with 56 blasts.
Murakami is a left-handed hitter and third baseman, but defense is not his calling card, and he could move to first base in MLB. With his prodigious power, that should have little effect on his market. There hasn’t been a Japanese player who came to MLB with as many career home runs since Hideki Matsui 23 years ago.
That being said, he’s not quite a sure thing. His 29.5% strikeout rate is a major concern given that he didn’t consistently face MLB-caliber velocity in Japan. However, the temptation of a big slugger who won’t turn 26 until February should prove alluring enough to incite a large-scale bidding war among MLB teams.
Since he is already 25, he won’t be restricted by the international amateur bonus rules that Roki Sasaki was a year ago. Whichever club signs him will be responsible for paying his posting fee—20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million, and 15% on anything beyond $50 million.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have to be presumed to be in the mix for any top-tier Japanese talent at this point, having signed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Sasaki over the last two years. Murakami would be an awkward roster fit though. With Freddie Freeman at first base and Ohtani at designated hitter, Murakami would have to play third until Freeman becomes a free agent in 2028. Max Muncy is the current third baseman, and he has a $10 million team option for next year that will certainly get picked up. That would necessitate a trade, but Muncy can veto any trade sue to his 10-and-5 rights.
A team with a clearer need and a history of involvement with Japanese players is the Boston Red Sox. Masataka Yoshida has been a subpar hitter as a DH, and the club struggled to fill their first base job for much of the year. They do have Nathaniel Lowe for one more year before free agency though, and Triston Casas is expected back from the knee injury he suffered in May.
The Seattle Mariners were lacking for power at the corner infield spots until they traded for Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor at the deadline. Those two helped push them into the playoffs, but they’re going to be free agents. Murakami could help fill the void in the middle of the lineup and can play either corner position.
The Texas Rangers are another club that can use a first baseman. They used Jake Burger, Rowdy Tellez, and Josh Smith there this season, but none of them is their long-term answer at the position. The club went 81-81 this year despite their excellent starting pitching because they finished 22nd in MLB in runs scored.
An under-the-radar team that could make a splash in free agency is the Cincinnati Reds. The notoriously frugal franchise practically never signs players at the top of the market, but they have a lot of money coming off the books this winter. A big slugger like Munetaka Murakami could be the jolt they need to get back into the playoff mix next season.