Move Ukraine Beyond Stalemate By Supplying Combat Aircraft

News from Ukraine provides signs for hope with Ukrainian forces reoccupying Kherson, and Russians surrendering to drones. However, this conflict is still far from over and much remains on the line, both for the people of Ukraine and for security implications around the globe. The longer the conflict extends, the greater the costs on the Ukrainian people and the coalition supporting them. This can be measured in lives lost, economic hardships borne by Ukraine’s friends, and increasing political strain among western nations. Vladimir Putin is a master at opportunistically maximizing the divisive potential afforded by these realities. That is why the United States, and its allies need to increase the scale and scope of the military tools they are providing the Ukrainians—to empower faster battlefield gains that will ultimately drive a resolution of this conflict. Nowhere is this truer than the impact western combat aircraft could have on the war.

Most of the military assistance provided to the Ukrainians so far is for surface operations—things like artillery, ground-launched missiles, and combat vehicles. While this aid is important, it fundamentally locks the Ukrainians into a two-dimensional force-on-force fight with the Russians. It does not take an advanced degree in military strategy to understand that traditional ground-centric warfare is defined by physical attrition, which will invariably favor Russia given its larger supply of personnel and materiel. It is also an incredibly slow way to fight, measuring progress one step at a time—a brutal “meat grinder.”

It is not in America’s or its allies interests for this to play out much longer given numerous western economies on the verge of recession, with energy supplies strained, and key food stocks affected. Nor can the Ukrainians sustain this kind of fighting in perpetuity from a manpower or resource perspective. The clock is running, and the Ukrainians need a time-based advantage to persevere.

Given that reality, it is puzzling and alarming why the Biden Administration once again chose to deny a Ukrainian request to procure MQ-1C Gray Eagle remotely piloted aircraft. This is exactly the kind of capability the Ukrainians need to accelerate battlefield gains given its ability to gather real time intelligence information and use it to launch air-to-ground missiles against time-critical targets. The power afforded by this sensor-shooter technology revolutionized U.S. combat operations and has been emulated by countries around the world. It is no mystery why Ukraine keeps asking for these aircraft.

One reason given for denying the Ukrainian’s request is the Biden Administration’s security concern that sensitive technology could be exploited by the Russians if they were to recover shot down aircraft. This is a puzzling justification given that the U.S. and its allies have operated these aircraft for the past two decades in Afghanistan and Iraq with numerous losses. It is not a question of what will happen “if” the Russians gain access to this technology—they already have it. The reality is that while MQ-1Cs are highly capable their technology is well understood.

The administration further rationalizes denying the request because Ukraine already has access to Turkish-made TB-2 remotely piloted aircraft. While true, this rationale fails to acknowledge that the TB-2 and the MQ-1C are quite different, with the latter carrying a far more powerful array of sensors, munitions, and with a much greater time aloft. At a time when Ukraine most needs a decisive advantage in the air, it is crucial that we provide them the tools with which they can create that advantage.

Administration officials also cite the cost of the MQ-1C, suggesting that available funds could be used to get larger numbers of alternate capabilities, like the TB-2. This argument ignores the performance advantages that the MQ-1C brings to the fight. War is about winning, not saving money—and winning requires the right tools. Allowing Putin to succeed would be much more costly over the long-term. It is also worth pointing out that if this is really an economic issue, the Administration could easily transfer MQ-1Cs and its larger MQ-9 cousin that it has in U.S. military stocks—just as it has done with everything from over a million artillery rounds to armored personnel carriers.

Additional Biden Administration pushback centers on the notion of survivability, with the MQ-1C’s vulnerability to Russian air defenses cited. While true in some respects, the reality is that neither Ukraine nor Russia have secured air superiority. Both sides are shooting down each other’s aircraft, while a significant number manage to operate successfully. What the Administration needs to consider are the losses that will occur and the broader strategic interests at risk by failing to better equip the Ukrainians with more effective airpower. The question really needs to focus on the results that MQ-1Cs will secure versus failing to try at all. The former turns up the pressure on the Russians, the latter cedes them battlefield sanctuary. Yes, some MQ-1Cs will get shot down. However, that should not be a deterrent to providing them given the results they promise to deliver.

Finally, the Biden Administration denial cited concerns regarding the potential of further escalating the war. Of all the reasons not to provide Ukraine MQ-1C’s, this is probably the most puzzling. The MQ-1C is a propeller-driven remotely powered aircraft whose core design is over twenty years old. It is not a stealth bomber or a nuclear powered attack submarine. Russian forces have tortured, raped, and mercilessly killed thousands of civilians. They have ruthlessly leveled Ukrainian cities outright and have recklessly fired artillery at nuclear power plants. Ending this senseless Russian violence as fast as possible on terms acceptable to the Ukrainian people should be what matters most. That demands an improved set of warfighting tools to move beyond the slow-moving ground war of attrition this conflict has become. To self-deter now is a dangerous path to follow and may undermine Ukrainian forces at the very time they need our help the most.

Nor should this conversation be restricted to one type of aircraft. The reality is that Ukraine needs to reset its entire Air Force to win this war and secure the peace. This will demand training personnel, helping construct the necessary infrastructure, and provide the combat aircraft and associated munitions necessary to replace the Soviet-era aircraft that it currently possesses. Deferring the process of transforming the Ukrainian Air Force to one based on western combat aircraft and principles undermines Ukraine while empowering Putin.

A look at the map showing the relative position of Ukrainian and Russian forces clearly shows there is a long way to go in this fight. Accelerating that clock by providing an advantage in combat aircraft to better exploit the air domain is essential for Ukraine to secure victory. It will dial up the pressure on Putin, stop the suffering of the Ukrainian people, and ease the economic disruption rest of the world is experiencing because of the war. The U.S. holds the power to positively shape the outcome of this conflict. That is why there is bipartisan support for the issue in Congress—a rare feat these days. Let’s get on with it: provide Ukraine the airpower it needs to win now.