Topline
Most Democrats are keen to see the back of President Joe Biden, according to an AP-NORC poll released Monday, with few supporting the incumbent making another bid for the White House in 2024 as doubts grow about his ability to govern successfully, accomplish major policy goals or work with Republicans controlling the House.
Many Democrats don’t want Joe Biden to run in 2024, an AP-NORC poll found.
Key Facts
Only 37% of Democrats want Biden to make another bid for the White House in 2024, according to the poll of 1,068 Americans conducted between January 26-30, down from around 50% in the agency’s polls in October and January.
Biden’s falling support is concentrated among younger Democrats, the poll found, with less than a quarter (23%) of Democrats under 45 supporting another election bid, down from nearly half supporting one (45%) before the midterms.
The drop in support was more modest among older Democrats ages 45 and over, the poll found, with nearly half (49%) in favor of Biden running again, down from 58% in October.
Overall, only 22% of Americans polled think Biden should run again in 2024—down from 29% from before the midterms—and only 9% of Republicans would want to see him run.
The figures come amid poor approval ratings for Biden—just 41% approve of his performance as president—and just a quarter (25%) of the public feel like the country is heading in the right direction, the poll found.
Many Democrats expressed having little to no confidence in Biden’s ability to effectively manage government spending (71%), accomplish major policy goals (71%) and work with Republicans in Congress (85%), a sentiment almost all Republicans (94%-96%) said they shared.
Key Background
Biden has struggled in the polls over the last year as his popularity wanes among members of the public. Despite several legislative wins and Democrat success in the midterms, this poll is the latest of many suggesting Americans do not wish to see his name on the ticket again in 2024. Growing disapproval towards the nation’s leaders is not solely directed at Biden and a slew of political controversies have soured attitudes towards officials across the board. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) required 15 rounds of votes and major concessions to a small number of fringe right wing legislators to secure enough support from his own party to be elected House Speaker. One of those votes—Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.)—has dominated the news cycle since his election after numerous investigations suggest he has fabricated large parts of his work and personal history, steadfastly refusing to resign or address the matter despite growing outrage. Former President Donald Trump, who a recent poll suggests is now the least popular among voters since 2015, is embroiled in a slew of controversies, investigations and lawsuits. Trump, as well as former Vice President Mike Pence and Biden, has come under fire after classified documents were found at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
What To Watch For
Biden is set to deliver the annual State of the Union address on Tuesday, the success of which could determine the trajectory of his reelection campaign. So far, the only known Republican contender for the 2024 election is former President Trump, who is expected to face stiff competition in the primaries. Former Republican South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are both expected to run for the 2024 GOP nomination.
What We Don’t Know
It’s not clear who would replace Biden on the ticket if he didn’t run for reelection. As the incumbent Vice President, Kamala Harris would be an intuitive choice to lead the ticket, though her disastrous approval ratings could prove problematic. Nobody has announced any intention to run yet, though pollsters have eyed the likes of Gavin Newsom, J. B. Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer—respectively the governors of California, Illinois and Michigan—transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders as possible contenders.
Further Reading
Biden 2024? Most Democrats say no thank you: AP-NORC poll (AP News)
Exclusive: Top Pollster: This Is Why Biden Should Not Seek A Second Term (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/02/06/most-democrats-dont-want-biden-to-run-in-2024-ap-norc-poll-finds/