Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden To Run Again, Poll Finds—But They’ll Probably Vote For Him Anyway

Topline

President Joe Biden intends to announce his 2024 reelection campaign as soon as Tuesday, multiple outlets report, though a new Associated Press/NORC poll suggests that most Americans, even Democrats, would prefer he didn’t run—even as Democrats are still prepared to vote for him in a general election.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the economy at an International Union of Operating Engineers … [+] on April 19 in Accokeek, Maryland.

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Key Facts

The poll, conducted April 13-17 among 1,230 U.S. adults, found only 26% of respondents would like to see Biden run again in 2024, versus 73% who said he shouldn’t.

That includes 47% of Democrats, while 52% of Democrats do not want him to run.

Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 bid was similarly unpopular, with 30% of respondents saying they don’t want him to run again, though 55% of Republicans say they want him to run again.

The vast majority of Democrats—81%—say they’re likely to support Biden in a general election if he does run, however, with 41% saying they would “definitely” vote for him and 40% saying they “probably” would.

The poll also found 43% of respondents would probably or definitely vote for Biden, while only 35% said the same of Trump.

In interviews with poll respondents, the AP reports Biden’s age was a primary concern for why he shouldn’t run again, as the president—already the oldest in U.S. history—would be 82 years old upon being sworn into office for a second term, and 86 by the end of his tenure.

Big Number

42%. That’s Biden’s overall approval rating, including 78% support among Democrats and just 7% approval among Republicans.

What To Watch For

Biden’s aides are eyeing Tuesday as a potential day to announce his 2024 bid, outlets including the AP and Washington Post report, with the New York Times reporting a video announcing his run is already in production. The date would mark four years since Biden entered the 2020 Democratic primary race, though no final decisions have reportedly yet been made and the White House would not confirm the reporting.

Tangent

Biden’s likely 2024 run comes as Republicans’ battle over the party’s 2024 nominee has been heating up. A Wall Street Journal poll released Friday found 51% of Republicans intend to support Trump, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now captures only 31% of likely GOP voters. The poll marks a notable reversal from December, when DeSantis had a 14-point advantage over Trump, as the Florida governor has recently seen a collapse in support, even among lawmakers in his home state who have instead endorsed Trump.

Key Background

Biden’s 42% approval rating marks an improvement from March, when AP’s polling had him at 38% support. The president’s approval rating has not been over 50% since August 2021, according to an aggregate of polls from FiveThirtyEight. Biden has largely been expected to run again in 2024, even after suggesting before he took office that he only intended to serve for a single term. The president said last week while in Ireland that an announcement of his reelection campaign was soon coming, telling reporters, “I told you my plan is to run again” and he expected it would be formally announced “relatively soon.” No major Democrats have announced plans to challenge Biden in the primary election, though former 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have announced bids for the Democratic nomination.