More Than 3 Billion Lives Now Threatened By Global Warming, UN Warns

Human-caused climate change is now dealing damage to every region of the world, with almost half of humanity at risk of increasing harm to their lives and livelihoods, concludes a landmark UN report released today.

In its report focusing on the impacts of global warming on people and the planet, the International Panel on Climate Change says that every inhabited continent is already experiencing multiple climate impacts, from droughts and flooding to biodiversity loss and falling food production. Between 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in areas “highly vulnerable to climate change,” the authors warn, with “additional severe risks” should the Earth warm beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

Some of the effects “will be irreversible, even if global warming is reduced.”

Emphasizing that the harms caused by global warming go far beyond simply the thread of fires and flooding, the report finds: “Climate change impacts are increasingly being felt in all regions of the world with growing challenges for water availability, food production and the livelihoods of millions of people.”

Crucially, these harms will intensify rapidly over the coming years.

“We also know that impacts will continue to increase if drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are further delayed—affecting the lives of today’s children tomorrow and those of their children much more than ours.”

The report is vital because it represents the consensus view of thousands of climate researchers from 195 countries, and as such is intended to guide the plans that governments put in place to respond and adapt to the changing climate. But the authors say governments are not doing anywhere near enough to meet the threat.

“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”

Responding to the report, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said: “Today’s IPCC report paints a dire picture of the impacts already occurring because of a warmer world and the terrible risks to our planet if we continue to ignore science. We have seen the increase in climate-fueled extreme events, and the damage that is left behind—lives lost and livelihoods ruined. The question at this point is not whether we can altogether avoid the crisis—it is whether we can avoid the worst consequences.”

MORE FROM FORBESAs The World Heats Up, Could ‘Carbon Clubs’ Supercharge Climate Action?By David Vetter

Urging Action

The report authors are unequivocal: acting now to slow global warming and adapt to its effects can reduce much of the expected harm.

“Today’s report shows that global action to achieve a safe and healthy planet is more urgent than previously thought,” said report author Lorraine Whitmarsh, Director of the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformation at Cardiff University. “We are not on track to achieve a climate resilient, sustainable world. Urgent action is required to adapt to climate impacts, as well as making deep cuts in carbon emissions.”

Whitmarsh made it clear that the future was not set: every step nations take to cut the emissions that cause global warming could help reduce the severity of the impacts felt. But this meant acting now.

“There are options we can take to adapt, but their effectiveness decreases with increased warming,” she said. “Any delay at all will mean irreversible impacts and species extinction, such as eradication of tropical coral reefs and loss of polar ice. These changes affect the poorest worst, but no-one will escape effects such as extreme weather and crop failures. And we are already experiencing these effects with global warming now to 1.1 degrees Celsius. There is a rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future. The good news is that many measures to adapt to climate change will also improve quality of life and protect nature.”

Speaking on behalf of the influential Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG), Mark Maslin, professor of Earth System Science at University College London told me:

“It is essential for governments, corporations and individuals to understand the severe consequences of climate change. This is why the IPCC report is so important, bringing together world-leading scientists and social scientists.”

The report, Maslin said, “lays out the most stark assessment to date showing our future is one of extreme weather events, increasing food and water insecurity, increasing poverty and unemployment, increasing loss of land, biodiversity and people’s lives. Climate change threatens human wellbeing and the very health of our planet. The report is very clear there cannot be any further delay reducing global emissions if we are to ensure we can still have a liveable future for everyone.”

Meanwhile, CCAG expert Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water research institution in New Delhi, enumerated the most concerning points raised by the IPCC.

“The IPCC report worries me on three counts,” he said. “We now have high confidence that the accelerating climate crisis is increasing water-related diseases. Second, we have high confidence that climate change will severely impact food production and food security. Third, droughts and heatwaves will trigger biodiversity loss, as well as human migration. To combat this surge of crises, developing countries like India will need to significantly scale up their adaptive capacity.”

Alluding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ghosh said: “The IPCC report has made it clear that not only are humans responsible for the impact on climate, we also know very well what a changing planet will do to us. Yet, international cooperation continues to fray and regional security crises are taking on geopolitical dimensions. It’s now for us to decide how we will behave with each other in the face of a severe climate crisis.”

John Kerry added his voice to those urging action.

“Denial and delay are not strategies, they are a recipe for disaster,” he said. “Fortunately, we have a blueprint for action. The best scientists in the world have shown us that we must accelerate adaptation action, with urgency and at scale. Our efforts to date have been too small and too fragmented to match the scale of the impacts we are already experiencing, let alone the threats we expect in the future. To truly adapt we must invest in communities, build climate resilient systems, and conserve critical ecosystems during this decisive decade.”

The report offers a region-by-region breakdown of the key dangers that are increasing as a result of the warming world, with risks outlined for every continent, plus the world’s small islands.

Climate Impacts: U.S. And Canada

In North America, “even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, human life, safety, and livelihoods … especially in coastal areas will be placed at risk from sea level rise, severe storms, and hurricanes,” the report states. Rising temperatures had increased mortality and morbidity in people, but were also badly harming the continent’s biodiversity, with many animal and plant species being threatened and displaced.

The same rising temperatures, combined with the mismanagement of rivers and water sources, are contributing to water scarcity and droughts across large swathes of the North American landmass. Economic activity is already being badly impacted by extreme events such as flooding and fires, while food production is at risk of going into decline as a result of the changing conditions.

Communities on and near coasts and rivers are expected to see increased flood and erosion, “displacing people, compromising economic activity, disrupting transportation and trade infrastructure.” Wildfires will “increasingly endanger lives, livelihoods, mental and physical health, property, key infrastructure, and economic activities and contribute to compromised air quality and municipal water contamination with multiple human health implications.”

Africa

“Africa has contributed among the least to greenhouse gas emissions, yet key development sectors have already experienced widespread losses and damages attributable to anthropogenic climate change,” the report notes.

Most vitally, life expectancy across Africa will suffer drastically: the report states with a high degree of confidence that at 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, “distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases is expected to increase, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in East and Southern Africa … the risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply, with at least 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually across large parts of Africa.’’

As a result of climate change, since 1961, agricultural productivity growth has dropped 34% across the continent. In just one example—fisheries—the report notes that global warming of 1.7 degrees Celsius could leave “1.2–70 million people in Africa vulnerable to iron deficiencies, up to 188 million for vitamin A deficiencies, and 285 million for vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids by mid-century.”

On biodiversity, further warming of up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in Africa could cause an estimated 7–18% of animal and plant species to go extinct.

Asia

On the world’s most populous continent, heatwaves, droughts and flooding are already affecting millions. Those weather impacts, as well as widespread extreme air and water pollution, are contributing to increases in circulatory, respiratory, diabetic and infectious disease, undernutrition and mental disorders. Heat-related deaths are expected to rise.

The water supply is a huge concern in large parts of Asia, with rivers such as the Indus and the Ganges, which supply hundreds of millions of people, facing “severe water scarcity challenges.” Global warming is expected to raise the risk of drought conditions in Asian countries by 5-20% this century.

Connected to this are food supply issues. “Floods and droughts, together with heat stress, will have adverse impact on food availability and prices of food resulting in increased undernourishment in South and Southeast Asia,” the authors write.

A particular threat in Asia is connected to energy demand: rising temperatures would lead to a higher demand for cooling systems such as air conditioning; this in turn would lead to a greater demand for energy, while a lack of fresh water would compound rising demand through the need for additional desalination and underground water pumping. “Among thirteen developing countries with large energy consumption in Asia, eleven are exposed to high energy insecurity and industrial systems risk,” the report says.

Australasia

In Australia and New Zealand, the human population will face an increasing range of climate threats to their security and way of life, from heatwaves and wildfires to extreme flooding.

Over southern and eastern Australia, and northern and eastern New Zealand, “extreme fire weather is projected, with increasing droughts.” Meanwhile, heavy rainfall intensity is also projected to increase.

The report draws particular attention to ecosystems, the loss of which not only harms the natural world, but has impacts on “critical infrastructure, essential services, food production, the national economy, valued places and employment.” Damage to coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef will worsen, while animal and plant species will go extinct. The authors cite the example of the Bramble Cay melomys, a type of rodent which was declared extinct in 2019. Australia’s Queensland government stated that this “probably represents the first recorded mammalian extinction due to anthropogenic climate change.”

The report warns of “disruption and decline in agricultural production and increased stress in rural communities in south-western, southern and eastern mainland Australia due to hotter and drier conditions,” and an increase in heat-related deaths for both people and wildlife.

Central And South America

Inequality, poverty and high population density make nations in Central and South America especially vulnerable to climate change, according to the report. Natural and human systems are already being impacted by increase frequency and severity of droughts in some regions, harming the water supply, impacting “agricultural production, traditional fishing, food security and human health.”

Deforestation and the human use of land in regions such as the Amazon was causing rapid biodiversity loss. Combined with rising temperatures, the authors write that, with a medium level of confidence, “up to 85% of natural systems (plant and animal species, habitats and communities) … are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change.”

The report singles out the vulnerability in Central and South American nations being worsened by “unstable political and governmental institutions, which suffer from corruption, weak governance and reduced capacity to finance adaptation.” Among its other effects, weak governance means climate events badly impact urban water supplies, drainage and sewage infrastructure across the region.

The report forecasts that climate change will further interact with political and economic factors to cause the large-scale displacement of people, leading to mass migration throughout the region.

Europe

Though a relatively wealthy region, Europe will not escape severe impacts brought on by rising temperatures. Southern Europe in particular will face harms from extreme heatwaves and droughts, while “substantive agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century.”

At 3 degrees Celsius of warming (5.4 Fahrenheit), “the number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two- to threefold at compared with 1.5 degrees Celsius,” the report says. “Above 3 degrees Celsius, there are limits to the adaptation potential of people and existing health systems.”

The authors warn that warming will decrease the extent of current land and water ecosystems and “irreversibly change their composition.”

As for fire risks, “fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, threatening biodiversity and carbon sinks,” such as forests.

While some areas will be more prone to drought, others will experience more frequent extreme flooding, early indications of which were seen in many European nations in 2021. In coastal areas, “sea level rise represents an existential threat for coastal communities and their cultural heritage, particularly beyond 2100,” with coastal flood damage rising “at least 10-fold.”

MORE FROM FORBESWildfires Could Increase 50% This Century. Here’s What To Do About ItBy David Vetter

Small Islands

Outside of the main landmasses, the world’s small islands are home to around 65 million people, and are especially vulnerable to changes in the world’s climate. These islands face “a larger proportion of the most intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, droughts, changing precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, coral bleaching, and invasive species,” the report says.

By 2050, sea level rise affecting the islands is expected to vary between 7-9 inches and 6-16 inches. This will double the frequency of floods in Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific islands, while “tropical cyclones will remain the main driver of (rarer) flooding in the Caribbean Sea and Southern Tropical Pacific.”

With a high percentage of island people living less than 10 meters above sea level, and with many livelihoods tied to ecosystems under threat, rising sea levels and intensifying storms are already harming small island infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, water and food security, and economies and culture, the IPCC says.

Ultimately, global warming may force human populations to abandon many small islands. With a high degree of confidence, the report authors note that “the impacts of climate change on vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas present serious threats to the ability of land to support human life and livelihoods.” As a result, “climate-related migration” from the islands is expected to increase, though further work needs to be done to establish how widespread this migration will be.

The Working Group II Report to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report can be viewed here.