More Democrats Have Voted Early—But Election-Day GOP Votes Could Sway The Midterms

Topline

In-person early and absentee voting has already exceeded records set in the previous midterm election, and in most battleground states, Democrats continue to turn out in higher numbers than Republicans—but a strong GOP showing is expected on Election Day.

Voters wait in line to cast their ballot for early voting at the Franklin County Board of Elections, … [+] on the eve of the US midterm elections, in Columbus, Ohio, on November 7, 2022. (Photo by Paul Vernon / AFP) (Photo by PAUL VERNON/AFP via Getty Images)

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Key Facts

In Pennsylvania, probable Democratic voters had cast more than 70% of the 1.1 million absentee and early votes received as of Sunday, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic political data analysis firm (there are about 550,000 more registered Democrats in Pennsylvania than Republicans).

Early GOP voter turnout in Pennsylvania has dipped from 2020 more than it has among Democrats, but GOP strategist Mark Harris thinks Republicans’ tendency to vote on Election Day rather than via early or absentee voting could offset this trend (a comparison with the 2018 midterm isn’t possible due to recent changes to the state’s absentee voting laws, allowing any voter to submit an absentee ballot).

In Arizona, early GOP voter participation is down compared to 2018, the New York Times reported last week, noting that Democratic early voter participation was on par with 2018 levels (39%) a week before the election, yet Republican participation stood at 33%, compared to 45% at that point in 2018.

Nevada is an outlier compared to other battleground states, according to the Nevada Independent, which found fewer registered Democrats have voted as of Sunday (42%) than Republicans (45%), though there are more registered Democrats in Nevada and the raw numbers of Democratic ballot returns are higher than Republican returns.

Georgia has seen a dramatic increase in in-person early voting and a decline in absentee voting from 2020, which is largely believed to be due to restrictions on absentee voting enacted in 2021: Nearly 2.3 million people voted in-person by the close of early voting on Saturday, shattering the state’s previous midterm early voting records, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

While Georgia does not publish party affiliation for early voting, TargetSmart estimates 49% of early votes came from Democrats, while 41% of early votes were cast by Republicans.

In Florida, where there are nearly 300,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, 320,017 more Republicans have voted early in-person or via absentee ballot compared to Democrats, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

Surprising Fact

In Miami-Dade County, where the number of registered Democrats exceeds registered Republicans by nearly 10 points, about 6,000 more ballots had been cast in-person or via absentee by Republicans versus Democrats as of Sunday, indicating the county could vote for a Republican governor—incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis—for the first time in two decades.

Big Number

40,796,941. That’s the total number of early in-person and absentee ballots cast nationwide as of Monday, exceeding the record number of early midterm votes cast in 2018, according to the US Elections Project. Among the 23 states that report early voters’ party affiliations, 43% of ballots were cast by Democrats and 34% were cast by Republicans.

Key Background

While Democratic early voter turnout exceeds Republican turnout just two days before the election, GOP voters are expected to take to the polls in higher numbers on Election Day, possibly eliminating Democrats’ advantage. A recent Gallup poll found a 22-point gap in early voting preferences between the two parties, with 54% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans saying they planned to vote early, either by absentee ballot or in person. In previous midterm years, members of both parties tended to vote early in roughly equal numbers.

Tangent

Fearing early-voting hesitancy could sway election results in Democrats’ favor, Arizona Republican Party Chair Kelli Ward encouraged early voting last week by tweeting a photo of herself delivering her own ballot to a drop box. Ward, for years, had pushed unfounded claims that early voting was rife with fraud.