More Countries Are Diversifying Their Drone Arsenals

Morocco’s reported purchase of Chinese Chengdu Wing Loong II is merely the latest example of a country diversifying its drone fleet.

With the addition of these armed Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), Rabat will have armed drone types from three different suppliers, the other two being Turkey and Israel. As noted here last year, Morocco’s acquisition of Turkey’s well-known Bayraktar TB2 drones along with Israeli Harop loitering munitions (so-called suicide or kamikaze drones) gives it similar capabilities to that of Azerbaijan.

Baku deployed both drone types to devastating effect against the Armenian military in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. The Israeli drones knocked out Armenian air defenses, and the Turkish UAVs destroyed large numbers of Armenia’s Russian main battle tanks. Morocco might attempt to replicate such tactics in a potential war with its neighbor and rival Algeria, which also operates a predominantly Russian-built arsenal of military hardware.

Ethiopia has similarly procured a diversified fleet of armed drones since mid-2021. Addis Ababa acquired the Chinese Wing Loong and Turkish TB2 along with the Iranian Mohajer-6, the same model Russia recently began using in Ukraine.

Diversified procurements of these kinds will most likely become the norm rather than the exception, especially as more drone manufacturers put more models on the market at increasingly competitive prices.

Before the U.S. reinterpreted the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which seeks to limit the proliferation of ballistic missiles and armed drones, under the Trump administration, Washington refused to export its large advanced armed drones, even to close allies.

Consequently, China, exploiting the gap in the market, widely sold armed drones like the Wing Loong II and the CASC Rainbow CH-4B to states in the Middle East and elsewhere with little care about how they were used. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was one of the countries to procure the former, which it actively used in recent conflicts in Yemen and Libya.

In January 2021, the outgoing Trump administration made a landmark $23 billion deal to sell the UAE 50 fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II aircraft and 18 armed MQ-9 Reaper drones. However, the following December, the Emirates announced the deal’s suspension. That same month, Abu Dhabi ordered 80 advanced 4.5-generation Dassault Rafale F4 multirole fighters from France. In September, it was reported that the UAE was seeking 120 Turkish TB2s in a deal that could be worth up to $2 billion. The UAE may even diversify its drone arsenal further by buying Israeli drones sometime in the future.

(Some of these countries may also opt to buy larger, more high-end, and expensive drones like the Reaper but probably in fewer numbers than much cheaper and more expendable drones like the TB2.)

Iraq bought over a dozen CH-4Bs in the mid-2010s and used them during its war against the Islamic State (ISIS). However, these drones have been grounded since September 2019 due to a lack of spare parts. Baghdad has since hinted it’s interested in diversifying its small drone fleet by acquiring Turkish TB2s.

Iran is supplying Russia with “hundreds” of armed drones amidst its war against Ukraine. These include the Mohajer-6 acquired by Ethiopia and Shahed-136 loitering munitions. Moscow’s singular reliance on Iran as a foreign supplier for armed drones is undoubtedly out of necessity rather than choice, given the isolation it has experienced since its fateful decision to invade Ukraine. Russia reportedly wanted TB2s from Turkey, but the manufacturer refuses “to give them drones in this situation.” China is also reluctant to incur Western sanctions by arming Russia with its combat drones.

In addition to diversifying their drone procurement sources, countries are also working to develop their capabilities to manufacture UAVs locally. Morocco’s deal for Chinese drones reportedly includes manufacturing a number of them in the kingdom. Rabat was already reportedly negotiating a deal to co-produce Israeli loitering munitions on its soil.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is another operator of Wing Loong IIs. Now Riyadh wants TB2s and a factory to manufacture them locally. The kingdom has already signed an agreement with China to build drones locally. And the Saudis are developing their own drone, the Samoom, which they anticipate could join the kingdom’s armed forces by 2024.

Turkey has already reached several agreements to co-produce its drones abroad. In May, Iran opened its first drone factory abroad in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan.

These recent developments strongly indicate that the proliferation of increasingly sophisticated and deadly armed drones in volatile parts of the world could get much worse in the near future.