Moderate appreciation of the AUD and NZD – Commerzbank

After hitting an interim low in October last year, AUD/USD and NZD/USD have recovered somewhat, but are still trading well below last year’s interim highs. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie and Kiwi outlooks.

Upside potential thanks to hawkish central banks?

Despite a weakening real economy, we continue to expect a moderate appreciation of the AUD and NZD. The reason for this is the surprisingly hawkish stance of the central banks, which have not yet been dissuaded by falling inflation and are therefore likely to start cutting rates much later than other G10 central banks. 

At the same time, the later starting point also limits the scope of rate cuts this year for the time being and gives hope that the restrictive approach will bring inflation under control in the long run. For the time being, we remain positive on the Aussie and the Kiwi.