MLB Prospects Struggling To Adjust To The Big Leagues

Everyone loves prospects because of their potential. When teams promote their top young players, they expect them to hit the ground running, especially when their first promotion occurs on Opening Day. Converting potential into reality isn’t easy though, and some of baseball’s best prospects are struggling in their first taste of MLB action—including one who has already been sent back down to the minors.

RHP Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Whether or not Sasaki is a prospect is debatable. MLB.com rated him the top overall prospect in the game before this season, but he had four years of high-level experience dominating in Japan. What isn’t debatable is that he has walked more batters than anyone else in MLB, issuing 16 free passes in 19 2/3 innings. While his 3.20 ERA looks great, underlying metrics are cause for concern, including allowing 29 baserunners and a 1.48 WHIP. He was known for triple-digit velocity in Japan, but his fastball sat in the 92-96 mph range in his last start on April 19.

3B Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs

Technically, Shaw is no longer a member of the Chicago Cubs. He plays for the Iowa Cubs now after Chicago demoted him last week. He was the organization’s first-round pick in 2023 and was ranked the 18th overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com before this season. The Cubs cleared the way for him to take the third base job when they traded Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith to the Houston Astros this offseason, but he hit only .172/.294/.241 with one home run through 18 games and struggled to make contact in the strike zone before they sent him down last week.

RHP Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

Pitching prosects and the Rockies go together like oil and water. Dollander is the latest young hurler to try to rewrite the franchise’s sad history on the mound. He was the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft and he made it all the way to Double-A in his first professional season. After one start in Triple-A to open the year, Colorado called him to the Majors, but he has a 7.36 ERA across three games and 14 2/3 innings. While his 18 strikeouts are encouraging, he has surrendered eight home runs already, which are two more than anyone else in MLB.

2B Max Muncy, Athletics

Muncy, who isn’t related to the longtime major leaguer of the same name, wasn’t as highly regarded as the players listed above, but he was a first-round pick in 2021 and ranked as the sixth-best prospect in the A’s system before the season. With Zack Gelof injured, he won the second base job coming out of spring training. He only has a .176/.211/.279 batting line though, and was held out of the lineup yesterday.

Prospects Succeeding

Not every prospect has started out poorly. Kristian Campbell has been fantastic for the Boston Red Sox, posting a .402 on-base percentage while playing second base and in the outfield. The aforementioned Cam Smith has a .429 slugging percentage and a 109 OPS+, indicating his offense has been 9% better than the league average.

A pair of older rookies who weren’t considered prospects are off to great starts. Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Jake Mangum was 29 when he made his MLB debut this season, but he’s hitting .328 and leading the AL with eight stolen bases. 26-year-old right-hander Chad Patrick has a 2.11 ERA through 21 1/3 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers. The successes of Mangum and Patrick juxtaposed with the struggles of Sasaki, Shaw, and Dollander show how imprecise predicting baseball can be.