‘Minions 2’ Drops 70% As ‘Top Gun 2’ And ‘Elvis’ Fall 38%

In domestic Friday box office news not about Thor: Love and Thunder, Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru fell a sharp 70% on its second Friday, earning $14.43 million to bring its eight-day total up to $179 million. That positions the $80 million prequel/sequel for a $47.2 million (-56%) weekend and $211.8 million ten-day domestic total. That makes the sequel to Minions and the prequel to Despicable Me the first animated film to top $200 million domestic since Frozen II ($477 million) in late 2019. Presuming its domestic/overseas split remains as it was over the last few days, it should be just over $400 million worldwide by Sunday night. Once it passes Sing 2 ($403 million) on Sunday or Monday, it’ll be the biggest animated grosser globally since Frozen II ($1.445 billion) in late 2019.

That drop, while sharp, is on par with the first Minions, which dropped 57% in weekend two and had $216 million domestic by the end of its second weekend. Minions was less leggy ($336 million from a $115 million opening weekend in 2015) than The Secret Life of Pets ($368 million from a $104 million debut in 2016) and Despicable Me 3 ($272 million from a $99 million Fri-Tues debut in 2017). Still, a run on par with Minions at this juncture would give Minions 2 a $325-$335 million finish. Like Thor: Love and Thunder probably/possibly earning “only” about as much as Thor: Ragnarök, I’m not going to besmirch a huge-grossing sequel to a huge-grossing predecessor not grossing “huger.” See also: Jurassic World Dominion “only” grossing $375 million domestic compared to the $417 million-grossing Fallen Kingdom.

Paramount and Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick acted like a typical movie for the first time in its run. The Tom Cruise-starring legacy sequel earned $4.465 million (-38%) on Friday for a likely $14.6 million (-44%) seventh weekend. It’ll have $596.5 million by tomorrow night. $600 million domestic will come next week, and we’ll see how close the $170 million flick is to $1.16 billion worldwide tomorrow. It’s undoubtedly going to make it to $1.2 billion and past Incredibles 2 ($609 million), The Last Jedi ($620 million) and The Avengers ($623 million) to crack the all-time top ten in unadjusted domestic earnings. Beyond that, let’s see if it does the Everything Everywhere All at Once ($67.7 million by tomorrow) thing where it drops harder against a tentpole and then holds steady the week after.

Warner Bros.’ Elvis earned another $3.2 million (-38%) on Friday for a likely $11.3 million (-39%) weekend and $91.4 million 17-day domestic cume. That’ll put it just behind Rocketman ($95 million in 2019), although obviously, we’re not looking at the next Bohemian Rhapsody ($214 million) or Straight Outta Compton ($160 million). The acclaimed and buzzy Baz Luhrmann-directed rock opera biopic should have around $155 million worldwide by tomorrow, well on its way to at least doubling its $85 million budget. The Austin Butler/Tom Hanks flick is one of the few likely award-season contenders (alongside Everything Everywhere and, probably via sheer momentum, Top Gun: Maverick) to open amid the year’s first half. Its solid commercial performance is another notch in the whole “Warner Bros. Is more than Batman and Harry Potter” thing.

Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion earned $2.35 million (-50%) on Friday for a likely $8.11 million (-50%) weekend and $350 million 31-day domestic cume. I do not yet know if Colin Trevorrow and Emily Carmichael’s $185 million dino threequel will arrive on “rent it for $20” PVOD this coming Tuesday. Still, history shows that such a circumstance shouldn’t damage the film’s theatrical run much. We’re still looking at a final domestic cume of around $365-$375 million and a global total of $905 million-$930 million. Blumhouse’s The Black Phone earned $2.34 million (-41%) on Friday for a $7.45 million (-39%) weekend and a terrific $62 million 17-day cume. This one might also drop on PVOD this coming Thursday, but Scott Derrickson and C. Robert Cargill’s $19 million crowd-pleaser has pulled solid legs for an original, R-rated horror flick.

Walt Disney’s Lightyear earned $890,000 (-57%) on Friday for a likely $2.82 million (-56%) weekend and miserable $112.2 million 24-day cume. Again, those who blame the film’s poor performance on its LGBT content should glance at those Thor 4 and Jurassic World 3 grosses. The Pixar sci-fi actioner/Toy Story spin-off won’t get anywhere near The Good Dinosaur’s $123 million domestic cume. A24’s charming and buzzy Marcel the Shell with Shoes On expanded to 48 theaters in weekend three in advance of its wide expansion next weekend. It earned $100,000 (+14%) on Friday for a $335,000 (+28%) weekend and $959,000 17-day cume. Thanks to the blow-out performance of Everything Everywhere (which played the Marcel trailer before every showing), I’m cautiously optimistic for this delightful little family-friendly melodrama. Trust but verify.