Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals Set For NL Central Showdown

For the rest of March, I’ll be taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2022 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2023 rookies will be addressed. We’ve already covered the AL East, NL East and AL Central; today, it’s the NL Central.

1. Milwaukee Brewers – “Tru” Talent Record = 88-74 – Offensive Rating = 101.1 (13th), Pitching Rating = 94.1 (8th), Defensive Rating = 98.2 (10th); IN: LF Jesse Winker, UT Abraham Toro, C William Contreras, UT Owen Miller, LHP Wade Miley, RF Brian Anderson; OUT: LHP Brent Suter, RF Hunter Renfroe, 2B Kolten Wong, UT Jace Peterson, RHP Brad Boxberger, C Omar Narvaez, LHP Taylor Rogers, DH Andrew McCutchen

That’s an awful lot of turnover for a team that missed the playoffs by the narrowest of margins, and it’s even more when you consider the 2022 trading deadline activity headlined by the departure of closer Josh Hader. That’s just how it goes in Brewer Country, where you tend to get traded just before you’re due a big pot of cash.

All of that said, while their big deals don’t always pan out, the Crew seems to hit on most of the deals around the margins. An upgrade from Narvaez to Contreras at catcher, while losing only outfield prospect Esteury Ruiz? That’s a win. They got a nice year out of Avisail Garcia, and let him walk. Then let Hunter Renfroe go after a year; enter Winker, who would appear primed for a bounce-back year back in the cozy NL Central. Miley’s also had some nice years in this division, and their other position player acquisitions all have the positional flexibility that’s needed more than ever in the era of 13-man pitching staffs.

Then there’s the kids – Brice Turang is set to start at 2B, and Garrett Mitchell in CF. Neither projects as a star, but both should eventually be league average regulars, which is just fine. OFs Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer are next in line – Frelick’s a favorite of mine who could be a future leadoff man, and Wiemer’s bat will play. Another OF, Jackson Chourio, is one of the best prospects in the game, but needs more time to develop. There isn’t much pitching help in the pipeline.

This is a huge year both on and off the field for the Brewers, as the clock is ticking on the eventual free agency of aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, both after the 2024 season. The contentious arbitration hearing between the club and Burnes doesn’t bode well for a long-term commitment, so this could be their last ride before they are moved a la Hader.

2. St. Louis Cardinals – “Tru” Talent Record = 88-74 – Offensive Rating = 109.1 (6th), Pitching Rating = 103.6 (19th), Defensive Rating = 96.4 (5th); IN: C Willson Contreras; OUT: LHP Jose Quintana, LF Corey Dickerson

They’re separated by a fraction of a win in my true-talent projection, but the Cards and Brewers couldn’t be more different in how they do business. The Cards spend more, have far less turnover, and while both teams’ fan bases are very devoted, St. Louis diehards actually get a chance to become attached to a significant number of their favorites.

And the Cards are in the process of graduating a significant amount of talent onto the big club. Contributors like LF Lars Nootbaar, 2B Brendan Donovan, 2B Nolan Gorman and RHP Andre Pallante showed up in 2022, and will be joined by phenom OF Jordan Walker this season. SS Masyn Winn and RHP Gordon Graceffo are also on the doorstep and will wait their turn until reinforcements are needed – both can be long-term pieces. LHP Matthew Liberatore and RHP Tink Hence also should be monitored; Liberatore is closer, but Hence could be in line for a breakthrough campaign.

While the Cards were relatively quiet this offseason, they stealthily stole an ace starting pitcher from the Yankees at the deadline in Jordan Montgomery. It cost them only oft-injured CF Harrison Bader. Montgomery takes the ball every fifth day, has two high-end pitches in his changeup and curve, and could assert himself as the Cards’ best starter this season.

20. Chicago Cubs – “Tru” Talent Record = 74-88 – Offensive Rating = 93.1 (22nd), Pitching Rating = 104.7 (20th), Defensive Rating = 96.8 (9th); IN: CF Cody Bellinger, RHP Brad Boxberger, RHP Jameson Taillon, SS Dansby Swanson, 1B Eric Hosmer, RF Trey Mancini, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Tucker Barnhart; OUT: C Willson Contreras, LHP Wade Miley

That’s a whole lot of quantity coming on board, but outside of Swanson, the quality is somewhat questionable. Yes, this team will be better, but barring a career renaissance from Bellinger, it’s difficult envisioning much more than a run at a .500 record. The everyday lineup feels like a succession of #6 hitters, which is not a good thing.

While the starting rotation also lacks star power, the Cubs did find out some good things about some of the pitchers they auditioned last season. Lefty Justin Steele appears to be a keeper. He was babied a bit innings-wise last season, but he gets the most from his stuff and throws tons of strikes. Hayden Wesneski also showed promise, and has a real shot to break camp at the back of the Cub rotation.

Unfortunately, the farm system is not among the game’s best. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong is generally seen as their top prospect. He’s a strong defensive player, but will likely never reside in the middle of an MLB lineup. At best, he could hit at or near the top, but more likely in the #7 range. Lefty Jordan Wicks is their most advanced pitching prospect, and could arrive in the second half of this season.

4. Cincinnati Reds – “Tru” Talent Record = 63-99 -Offensive Rating = 85.5 (30th), Pitching Rating = 103.3 (18th), Defensive Rating = 104.0 (25th); IN: SS Kevin Newman, 1B Wil Myers, CF Will Benson; OUT: UT Kyle Farmer, 2B Mike Moustakas, UT Donovan Solano

Reds fans, I’m here to tell you that your club is at or near the bottom of its “tank”, and will soon start turning upward. While it’s pretty hard to have a truly bad offensive club while playing your home games in Great American Ball Park, these guys are pulling it off, and will continue to do so until their brewing batch of top position player prospects get their bearings at the MLB level. I mean, Jake Fraley is projected to bat cleanup for these guys.

First, the good news. The starting pitching could be really good, at least at the front of the rotation. Hunter Greene could be special, and Nick Lodolo isn’t too far off of his pace. Graham Ashcraft has the makings of a strong arsenal himself, and just has to find a way to miss more bats.

Oh, but the offense. This could get really, really ugly, perhaps worse than in 2022. But look at the bright side – the cavalry is coming. My motto has always been, the more shortstop prospects, the better. They ALL played shortstop. Albert Pujols did. Jim Thome did. Well, the Reds have shortstop prospects. Elly De La Cruz is the best and most advanced of the lot. He’s a 6’5” manchild who can stay at the position, and do absolutely everything asked of him and more. Potential superstar. Noelvi Marte struggled a bit in the upper minors last season, and might eventually need to move to 3B. He should have the power to make it stick. Edwin Arroyo is only 19 and can really pick it in the field. His bat showed major growth last season. He just needs time. And Cam Collier, the Reds’ 2022 1st rounder, projects as a 3B and could be a foundational offensive player, potentially a steal at #18 overall. If these guys reach their potential, the Reds will find places for all of them on the field and be better for it.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates – “Tru” Talent Record = 58-104 – Offensive Rating = 89.1 (27th), Pitching Rating = 113.3 (27th), Defensive Rating = 105.3 (26th); IN: 1B Ji-Man Choi, RHP Vince Velasquez, LF Connor Joe, C Austin Hedges, LHP Rich Hill, 1B Carlos Santana, RF Andrew McCutchen; OUT: SS Kevin Newman, RHP Bryse Wilson, RHP Zach Thompson

Like the Reds, the Pirates will need to experience a bit more short-term pain before any long-term gain. And while the Bucs do have some youngsters with significant upside, they don’t have as many as their Cincinnati brethren. When two of your SETUP MEN LEAD YOUR TEAM IN WINS, as the Pirates’ Wil Crowe and Chase DeJong did with six in 2022, you’ve got some issues.

It’s all about SS Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh in 2023, as it was in the last half of 2022. The 6’7”, 220, behemoth may be the largest man to ever play the position at the MLB level. Talk about a high variance player – at this point, Cruz could be a superstar or a bust. He hits the ball as hard as anyone, but his plate discipline is nearly non-existent. Cruz’ defensive performance has been mixed as well. Plus, he’s 24, not exactly a baby. This will be a telling season, to say the least.

C/LF/2B Endy Rodriguez (you read that right) has the potential to be a breakthrough player at the MLB level this season. The switch-hitter can really, really hit and has a chance to break camp with the big club. More likely, he’ll get called up sometime in the spring and make his mark quickly. OFs Cal Mitchell and Jack Suwinski were called up before their time last season, and should be better this time around.

On the pitching side, it remains pretty bleak. Mitch Keller has at least become a competent starter, and Roansy Contreras held his own in a rough situation for a youngster. Don’t be shocked if JT Brubaker takes a significant step forward this season. His curve is a legit out pitch and the rest of his repertoire is respectable. David Bednar is a relatively high-end closer, which on this club makes him a likely trade chip.