Milwaukee Brewers, MLB’s Hottest, On Lower End Of True Talent Rankings

It’s time for my annual batted ball-based midseason team true-talent rankings —here’s a quick refresher on the methodology.

In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” are applied to each team’s population of batted balls, both for and against, to derive the production they “should have” achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.

Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs’ performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.

In 2020, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.

To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Six clubs were subjected to this penalty, a fairly average number compared to recent norms.

Today we’ll tackle the bottom 15 clubs – one of whom is on absolute fire, recently beating the mighty Dodgers six consecutive times, winning eight more games than their projection at the break. The vast majority saw their projection line up closely with their actual record. Here we go:

30. Colorado Rockies (Actual Record = 22-74, Projected Record = 30-66)

Offensive Rating = 82.6 (30th), Pitching Rating = 118.6 (30th), Defensive Rating = 102.7 (23rd); 2024 Final = 29th

Absolutely sickening. The worst team in baseball on both sides of the ball, and that’s with the White Sox existing. And I really don’t want to hear about Coors Field at this point. Breaking balls don’t break for their opponents either, but the Rockies somehow struck out exactly 300 more times than their opponent at the break. They put a whopping 471 fewer balls into play – and still hit more pop ups than their opponents. They were -131 in fly balls, and -132 in liners. They were one of the six teams assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty. Positives? Hunter Goodman’s had a nice breakthrough, their team exit speed differential isn’t embarrasingly bad and they actually had a +1.8 degree launch angle advantage over their opponents.

29. Chicago White Sox (Actual Record = 32-65, Projected Record = 37-60)

Offensive Rating = 90.9 (24th), Pitching Rating = 117.6 (29th), Defensive Rating = 99.8 (15th); 2024 Final = 30th

They’re off of the mat, and that counts for something. My batted ball-based method looks much more kindly upon their team defense than other publicly available metrics, with CF Luis Robert helping them post a solid 95.4 team fly ball multiplier. Otherwise, especially on the pitching side, they can only boast that they’re not the Rockies. They were the only team besides Colorado to whiff fewer than 700 batters through the break. Their -196 batted ball differential is less obscene than the Rockies’ mark, but the Sox were -101 in line drives. Like Colorado, their team average exit speed nearly matched their opponents, and they possessed a positive (+1.0 degree) launch angle differential.

28. Cleveland Guardians (Actual Record = 46-49, Projected Record = 37-58)

Offensive Rating = 83.8 (29th), Pitching Rating = 102.7 (20th), Defensive Rating = 104.0 (25th); 2024 Final = 21st

Our first real surprise,as the Guardians had nine more wins than their first half projection, the largest positive spread in MLB. They perennially lag in my batted ball-based method, as they simply do not hit the ball hard. Steven Kwan is their poster child. In past years, they typically avoided strikeouts at the plate and put tons more balls in play compared to their opponents. Not this year – they’re actually -42 in that department, and are hitting them as weakly as ever – only the Brewers (!) have a lower average offensive exit speed, and the Guardians’ -1.4 mph exit speed differential is the largest in the game. Oddly, they’re are third consecutive team at the bottom of these rankings with a positive team launch angle differential (+1.3 degrees).

27. Baltimore Orioles (Actual Record = 43-52, Projected Record = 38-57)

Offensive Rating = 92.7 (23rd), Pitching Rating = 109.6 (28th), Defensive Rating = 104.4 (26th); 2024 Final = 11th

This one surprised me. Obviously the O’s have been brutal, but I thought they were at least better than their record. No team has fallen as far in these rankings from the end of last season, and it’s been across all phases of the game. They’ve put 151 fewer balls in play than their opponents – but have hit 23 more pop ups. Their average exit speed exactly matches their opponents’ – but they hit 71 fewer singles, 17 fewer doubles, 11 fewer triples and 19 fewer homers. Now most of this falls on the back of their pitching staff, which has allowed the loudest fly ball contact in the majors (92.6 mph average fly ball exit speed). Team defense has also lagged, particularly in the outfield, where Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad have keyed subpar 102.4 fly ball and 107.0 line drive defensive multipliers. The kids do not appear to be alright.

26. Los Angeles Angels (Actual Record = 47-49, Projected Record = 40-56)

Offensive Rating = 99.4 (16th), Pitching Rating = 106.4 (24th), Defensive Rating = 112.1 (30th); 2024 Final = 27th

This one, on the other hand, does not surprise me. This is a bad team, despite the seven game gap between their actual and projected records. They hit the ball pretty hard and pretty high, with a modest team exit speed and large launch angle (+1.2 degrees) differential. Other than that…..ick. 176 more strikeouts than their opponents, and 72 fewer walks – they put 254 fewer balls into play than their opponents. They’re probably the worst team ever to have a +17 homer differential at the break. Their awful defense is a huge reason why – 1B Nolan Schanuel and 3B Luis Rengifo have been brutal in the infield (111.8 grounder multiplier), while Jo Adell and Jorge Soler have been awful in the outfield (MLB-worst 116.5 liner multiplier).

25. Athletics (Actual Record = 41-57, Projected Record = 42-56)

Offensive Rating = 93.7 (22nd), Pitching Rating = 109.6 (27th), Defensive Rating = 100.3 (17th); 2024 Final = 25th

When discussing the Athletics it must be emphasized their Sutter Health Park is extremely hitter-friendly. The A’s offense isn’t as good as it might seem, but their pitching is every bit as bad and perhaps worse. Their team batted ball differential is bad but not cataclysmic at -148, but dig a little deeper. -167 in fly balls, – 89 in line drives….and +171 in grounders. Their team launch angle differential is a laughably bad -4.8 degrees, which is actually only the second worst in MLB. We’ll discuss their competition shortly. As a result, the A’s hit 30 fewer doubles and 19 fewer homers than their opponents. Their offense at least has some promising youngsters – their pitching staff is presently nearly bereft of hope.

24. Washington Nationals (Actual Record = 38-58, Projected Record = 42-54)

Offensive Rating = 101.4 (11th), Pitching Rating = 107.7 (26th), Defensive Rating = 106.4 (28th); 2024 Final = 26th

Our first team that is markedly above average in one facet of the game, in this case, offense. Despite the team’s lack of overall progress, this is a big deal. James Wood is that good, and perhaps better. Thanks largely to his efforts, the Nats’ exit speed is within hailing distance of their opponents, and they actually hit a handful more line drives. Of course, this is the club with a larger negative launch angle differential than the A’s, at -5.3 degrees. Wood contributes to that as well – once he begins to elevate the baseball more, watch out. MacKenzie Gore’s development is about the only plus on the run prevention side. Their ground ball defensive multiplier is a laughable 124.2, with 1B Nathaniel Lowe the primary offender.

23. Pittsburgh Pirates (Actual Record = 39-58, Projected Record = 45-52)

Offensive Rating = 90.2 (26th), Pitching Rating = 100.3 (18th), Defensive Rating = 95.4 (8th); 2024 Final = 24th

This one is actually a bit of a surprise to the positive side. Of course, anything involving exit speeds is greatly affected by the presence of Oneil Cruz. Thanks to him, the Bucs’ average exit speed exactly matches their opponents’. There still are some worrisome offensive markers, however. A -120 batted ball differential while hitting more grounders than your opponents……not good. Their -2.0 degree launch angle differential also has a cost – the Bucs were +61 in singles but -45 in doubles and -26 in homers through the break, hitting only 66 homers. On one hand, average overall pitching seems like a good thing, but considering the work done by Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, the rest of the staff has been pretty bad. Team defense grades out pretty well according to this method, with a strong 88.4 grounder multiplier keyed by 3B KeBryan Hayes.

22. Miami Marlins (Actual Record = 44-51, Projected Record = 45-50)

Offensive Rating = 99.7 (15th), Pitching Rating = 103.1 (22nd), Defensive Rating = 102.4 (22nd); 2024 Final = 28th

There’s actually been quite a bit of progress made in South Florida this season, particularly on the offensive side. Kyle Stowers and Agustin Ramirez appear to be “guys”, and I’m still holding out hope for a Jesus Sanchez breakout. (Let him play against lefties, please?) Their team K and BB totals and exit speed differentials are all at least close to even now, due in large part to improvements on the offensive side. The improvements have been smaller on the pitching side, but Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez have opened eyes at times. A -1.9 degree launch angle differential is an issue, and the blame mostly resides with the bats. The team defense has taken a step backward, with a 105.7 grounder multiplier enabled by 1B Eric Wagaman, SS (before his move to 2B) Xavier Edwards and the small sample of 2B Ronny Simon.

21. San Francisco Giants (Actual Record = 52-45, Projected Record = 46-51)

Offensive Rating = 89.0 (28th), Pitching Rating = 91.6 (6th), Defensive Rating = 100.8 (18th); 2024 Final = 18th

Four of the last six teams we’ll cover today (including the last three) fit the same profile – poor offense, strong run prevention, in the mix for playoff spots. The Giants are an eminently unremarkable baseball team that has played well above its head this season. They are the kings of the can of corn fly ball offensively – they are 28th among the 30 MLB clubs in projected fly ball SLG. Despite not hitting their fly balls all that hard, they hit a ton of pop ups – only two teams have hit more. Logan Webb is the driving force behind their pitching staff. Thanks largely to him, they’re 5th in the majors in ground balls generated. Put all of this together, and the Giants have a hefty +4.7 degree launch angle differential, 2nd best in baseball. Unfortunately, the #1 club is up next, so it doesn’t necessarily correlate directly with winning.

20. St. Louis Cardinals (Actual Record = 51-46, Projected Record = 47-50)

Offensive Rating = 100.1 (13th), Pitching Rating = 102.9 (21st), Defensive Rating = 99.1 (13th); 2024 Final = 19th

Speaking of unremarkable baseball teams…….the Cardinals have been firmly ensconced in MLB’s soft middle for years now. Their young players largely haven’t gotten better, and their vets have been merely decent. Their hitters make contact and their pitchers pitch to contact. Their hitters pop up a lot and their pitchers get a ton of grounders, so they’re the proud owners of MLB’s largest launch angle differential at +4.9 degrees. Perhaps most damningly, the Cardinals are……boring. How’s a nice -16 triples differential grab you? They had all of four three-base hits at the break. At this point, I think the Cards would be best served by abandoning mediocrity and sinking toward the bottom before assembling their next high quality club.

19. Arizona Diamondbacks (Actual Record = 47-50, Projected Record = 48-49)

Offensive Rating = 106.3 (7th), Pitching Rating = 106.9 (25th), Defensive Rating = 99.5 (14th); 2024 Final = 16th

The anti-Giants – take the over when the Arizona Diamondbacks play. Only one club allowed a higher average exit speed in the first half. Their own average exit speed wasn’t that much lower, however, and the D’backs had a +1.1 degree average launch angle differential compared to their opponents. Only four clubs had a higher projected SLG on fly balls……but no team had a higher projected SLG against on fly balls. They were one of six clubs assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty. The Snakes also had a positive net K/BB profile, whiffing 55 fewer times and walking 34 more than their opponents. Obviously, injuries – including the loss of Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery – have been a huge problem. This team would be a handful with even average run prevention.

18. Cincinnati Reds (Actual Record = 50-47, Projected Record = 49-48)

Offensive Rating = 90.0 (27th), Pitching Rating = 95.2 (9th), Defensive Rating = 94.0 (4th); 2024 Final = 22nd

The next two teams grade out almost identically across the board. Both are run-prevention wagons with limited offenses. It’s pretty frustrating to watch the Reds struggle to piece together an offense in such a hitter-friendly home park, but their pitching and defense deserve plaudits. This is one instance when a large negative (-2.8 degree) launch angle differential isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Almost to a man, and led by Andrew Abbott, Reds’ starters challenge Great American Ball Park by inducing lots of fly balls (and pop ups). Despite this, their doubles (-16) and homer (-11) differentials are at manageable levels. Their infield defense has been incredible, with an MLB-best 80.1 grounder multiplier, keyed by 2B Matt McLain, 3B Santiago Espinal and SS Elly De La Cruz.

17. Milwaukee Brewers (Actual Record = 56-40, Projected Record = 48-48)

Offensive Rating = 90.5 (25th), Pitching Rating = 95.1 (8th), Defensive Rating = 94.0 (5th); 2024 Final = 10th

This isn’t as surprising as one might think. Hang with me here. The Milwaukee Brewers as currently constituted are not the same bunch that compiled this .500ish projected record, especially on the pitching side. With Jacob Misiorowski, Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester dealing at the top of the rotation, this bunch is far better than the 8th best pitching club in the game. The offense? Well, yeah, they deserve that low ranking. They have the lowest average exit speed in the game at 87.2 mph. Though they’ve put 89 more balls in play than their opponents, they’ve hit 113 fewer fly balls (but 13 more pop ups). It’s a bad offense……but it plays up a bit because of speed and fundamentals. The defense is actually down a notch from 2024 (when it ranked 1st), but the infield has been great, with SS Joey Ortiz keying a 82.2 grounder multiplier.

16. Kansas City Royals (Actual Record = 47-50, Projected Record = 49-48)

Offensive Rating = 95.4 (20th), Pitching Rating = 94.5 (7th), Defensive Rating = 101.3 (20th); 2024 Final = 15th

Yet another run prevention-focused club to close out the Bottom 15. There’s plenty of hope for this offense, however. Only the Blue Jays have struck out less. The Royals put 146 more balls in play than their opponents, and the pluses were in the right places, on flies (+68) and liners (+62). Though they hit only 73 homers and had a -25 homer differential, the Royals actually hit the ball harder than their opponents, with a +1.4 degree launch angle differential. Those positive exit speed margins exist solely within the liner and grounder categories, however – their projected SLG in the air is 5th worst in MLB. There’s a winning offense in there somewhere, and the pitching is simply solid.