Key Insights:
- MicroStrategy stock sits 3% above a key floor, putting MSTR stock at breakdown risk.
- Dividend math shows 71 years of coverage, but delisting fears create fresh pressure.
- Analysts stay bullish, yet chart levels warn that $172.5 will decide the short-term path.
MicroStrategy stock price trades near $177, and it has already lost 40% in one month. This drop is much heavier than Bitcoin’s 20% fall in the same period.
The stock now sits only 3% above the key support at $172.5. If this level breaks, the chart shows a clear path to the downside.
The pressure comes from a mix of dividend worries, index-removal fears, and growing stress in the wider crypto market.
Why the Dividend Story Is Important for MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock
MSTR stock pays a dividend, so traders worry the payout may add pressure if Bitcoin drops more.
The company tried to answer this directly. It reported that, at the current Bitcoin price, it has 71 years of dividend coverage.
This means the company can handle the payout even if revenue stays low.
The math is simple. If Bitcoin grows by 1.41% or more per year, the value of the company’s holdings fully covers the dividend cost. With slower Bitcoin growth, the coverage still lasts decades.
So the dividend does not create real danger for the MSTR balance sheet right now, even if the stock keeps falling. But a different problem is rising.
A proposed MSCI index rule for 2026 might remove MicroStrategy from the NASDAQ 100 and other large indexes.
JP Morgan says this is because Bitcoin now makes up more than 50% of the company’s total assets. MicroStrategy holds about 638,000 BTC, worth roughly $72,000,000,000.
If index removal happens in January 2026, index funds would be forced to sell between $2.8 billion and $11.6 billion of MSTR stock. Large forced selling like this can hit prices hard, even if the company itself is strong.
Fear Grows Amid Delisting Concerns and Key Claims
Some traders are worried because of public comments from Peter Schiff. The Bitcoin critic says Michael Saylor’s long-term Bitcoin plan leaves him with “less than 17% paper profit” after five years. He also claims MicroStrategy could “lose access to capital” and end up selling Bitcoin under pressure.
These comments increase fear among retail traders, even though they are opinions, not confirmed risks. Analysts see the situation very differently.
TipRanks shows:
- 14 buy ratings
- 0 sell ratings
- Average target: $524 (about +195% from current price)
- High targets up to $705
Analysts believe the selloff looks emotional and not linked to the company’s real financial health. They also point out that MicroStrategy’s balance sheet remains safe as long as Bitcoin stays above about $87,300.
The company itself said Bitcoin’s price swings do not threaten its annual obligations.
Weak MSTR Stock Price Chart Raises Doubts?
MSTR stock price has been falling along a steep downtrend since late October. The most important level is $172.5.
If the price breaks below this line, the next areas on the Fibonacci chart sit at $146, $126, and $105. These levels match earlier reaction zones and would confirm a deeper breakdown.
But there is also a clear path upward. If the stock climbs back above $213, the trend begins to repair. This opens a move toward stronger areas in the mid-$200 range.
Right now, MicroStrategy is sitting on the floor that will guide the rest of 2025. A bounce from this zone keeps the 2026 story for MicroStrategy stock and even Bitcoin alive.
A clean breakdown tells us that the market is focusing on delisting fear, not the company’s 71-year dividend safety or the strong analyst targets.