Michael Fulmer A Savvy Signing For Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have had a knack for scooping up relief pitchers and making them better for several seasons now. In most cases lately, they have flipped these relievers for prospect depth at the trade deadline.

At first glance, them picking up Michael Fulmer on a reported one-year, $4 million deal looks like more of the same. Through six seasons in the majors, mostly spent in Detroit, Fulmer has pretty successfully navigated the transition from starter to reliever. He was the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year and an All-Star as a starting pitcher in 2017 but moved to the bullpen after returning from Tommy John surgery for the 2020 season.

What’s most alluring for the Cubs about Fulmer is his velocity. In his career, his four-seam fastball averages in the mid-90s and his sinker has been a tick faster. One of the qualities the Cubs pitching staff has lacked recently has been upper-90s speed. Overall pitch speeds are trending upward around the league, so grabbing Fulmer is a step in the right direction for the Cubs at least in that regard.

Back in January, team chairman Tom Ricketts said his Cubs were at an “inflection point” this season, so it’s not unlikely to think that Fulmer has a role with the team over more long-term period.

But on a one-year deal, the 29-year-old seems almost destined to be traded in July. It’s how the Cubs have operated for a few seasons now.

And maybe he will get dealt, depending on how the Cubs season goes. Ricketts might be wrong, and the losing might continue. There are still holes on the roster even after offseason improvements, and contending this year hinges on a lot of variables, including more than one player having a bounce-back campaign this year. The 2023 Cubs do look a lot better — at least on paper — over last year, and the National League Central is a weak enough division for them to make things interesting.

That leaves the possibility that Fulmer does not become trade fodder in a few months. On a contending team, he could make for a valuable piece. But in order for that to happen, the Cubs development staff that has done so well with other relievers will have to work its magic. Although he has maintained an ERA in the low 3.00s as a reliever, some of his peripherals, especially lately, might indicate that Fulmer is trending in the wrong direction.

Last year in particular, especially after being traded to the Twins, Fulmer’s walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) spiked from 1.246 to 1.562, and his fielding independent pitching (FIP) went from 3.21 to 4.14. Broadly speaking, the Twins and Tigers were equivalent defensively last season, so it does not seem to indicate that Fulmer was overly benefiting from Detroit’s defense and was somewhat exposed when he made the move to the Twins. Regardless, a WHIP too far above 1.00 for a relief pitcher can often spell trouble. On the other hand, with the new defensive rule changes in place this year, and the duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner up the middle for the Cubs, there might not be reason to worry about Fulmer.

Of greater concern is whether Fulmer will maintain his high velocity. The average on his high-speed stuff was down about a mile per hour last year compared to 2021. If this trend continues, Fulmer and the Cubs might be in trouble. He missed all of the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery, and posted his worst numbers in 2020 with greatly decreased velocity. That year, he had an 8.78 ERA and averaged over two baserunners allowed per inning. Obviously, he righted the ship in the following seasons, but if Fulmer’s average pitch speed is going to continue to decline, that’s another cause for concern.

Ultimately, at $4 million for the year, that may not matter. If he doesn’t work out, the Cubs aren’t losing a lot here. More importantly, if he does pitch well out of the bullpen, Fulmer presents an intriguing option for the Cubs’ high-leverage innings. He saved 14 games in 2021 and has 34 holds over the past two seasons.

Considering both the terms of the deal and what Fulmer could offer to the bullpen, this is a savvy move for the Cubs, even with the possibility that his performance is gradually declining.