Mexico Fans Will Dominate Gold Cup Final Crowd Vs USMNT, And That’s OK

One of the lasting storylines from the U.S. men’s national team’s 2-1 win over Guatemala in the 2025 Gold Cup semifinals was how the sell-out crowd in St. Louis, traditionally a hub of American support, appeared to be made up predominantly of Guatemalan fans.

That may be nothing compared to how Houston’s NRG Stadium may feel on Sunday evening when Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT takes on Mexico in their eighth all-time meeting in a Gold Cup final.

Nearly all of what is expected to be a near-sellout crowd at 72,220-capacity is likely to be supporting Mexico, in a city with an enormous Mexican-American population. That’s even by design from Concacaf, which regularly relies on the American popularity of the Mexico national team to drive ticket sales for the biennial event.

It’s unfortunate that USA fans aren’t as mobilized as fans of other Concacaf nations when it comes to regional competition. But any concerns that a lack of American support now will carry over to next year’s FIFA World Cup – in which the U.S. will play its group games in Southern California and Seattle – are probably unfounded.

Been here before

The same pattern appeared a generation ago when the United States prepared to host the World Cup a first time in 1994. Even less than two weeks before the World Cup opener, the U.S. played Mexico in a friendly at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. (Enormous thanks to longtime American soccer journalist Pablo Maurer for finding and posting the above Nightline clip from 1994.)

While the 1-0 American victory was viewed as a major confidence boost ahead of the tournament, the heavily pro-Mexico crowd dynamics did little to promote the idea that the USMNT would enjoy a home-field advantage at USA ’94. But once tournament play started, Americans turned out en masse.

The reason is simple: Even with very little knowledge of the sport at the time, Americans still considered the World Cup a “major international event” similar to the Olympic Games or major Tennis or Golf competitions. So just like Americans would suddenly care about figure skating, gymnastics, track and field and swimming in Olympic years, when the World Cup began, they cared about soccer.

Many more Americans have become soccer fans in the 31 years since. Even so, no other major soccer event involving the USMNT has achieved “major event” status in the nation’s mainstream English-speaking sports media and culture. If anything, it’s more likely to lend that status to big Premier League or UEFA Champions League gameas, or the Euopean Championships (known colloquially as the Euros), given the emergence of the idea among so many American fans that Europe is the sole home of big-time soccer.

Media Language Divide

But for American Spanish speakers whose lineage is in the Concacaf region, it’s a decidedly different story. For most Concacaf nations, the Gold Cup is the second-biggest event on the quadrennial soccer calendar behind World Cup qualifying. And even for regional powers like Mexico, Panama, Honduras and Costa Rica, the Gold Cup represents a unique chance to actually win silverware, since like the USA none have ever been realistic contenders to win a World Cup title.

In that context, the struggle to draw USMNT fans to St. Louis makes more sense. Even for most hardcore, it was maybe the third-most important match of 2025 behind this spring’s Concacaf Nations League semifinals and third-place matches that were played with a stronger squad. For Guatemalan fans, it was literally their national team’s most important match in the 29 years since their last Gold Cup semifinal appearance.

The disparity in perception isn’t quite as stark for the final, though still significant. And the size of the potential Mexico fanbase Sunday is far lager. According 2023 U.S. Census estimates, 1.9 million people in the Houston metro area identify as Mexican American, not to mention potential travelers from San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and Fort Worth.

In terms of international competition, this will be the highest-profile Mexico event in any sport since the 2023 Gold Cup final and until next summer’s World Cup. But in the overall U.S. sports media landscape, Sunday’s clash falls well behind the USA-Canada ice hockey clashes earlier this year, next year’s Winter Olympics, and possibly also any major tennis tourmanent final appearances by American singles players.

How Does It Change?

It would be a positive development for the entire region if USMNT fan views of the Gold Cup changed.

The emergence of Canada as a consistent regional rival could help. For better or worse, most Americans see far more in common with their neighbors to the north than the south. And Canada manager Jesse Marsch’s insistence in criticizing U.S. soccer while in the role only helps generate the kind of folder that rivalries require.

Changing the tournament to a quadrennial event could also add to its perceived significance, especially because in the process, it would probably mostly end the practice of coaches deciding to field lesser-strength rosters. Attendance data from previous Gold Cup tournaments suggests the presence of the team’s best stars does make a considerable difference.

And like so many competitions, the best way to make fans care is for them to endure unexpected defeats. If Canada, Panama, Costa Rica or Jamaica could break through and end the bi-polar rule of the USMNT and El Tri at this event, it would make more fans of both nations take notice.

The talent base in Concacaf is evolving to the point where that feels more likely to happen eventually than it ever has before. And Canada did break through once in 2000. If we someday look at a tournament field and think four or more sides could realistically win the title, it becomes easier to equate it with the Euros or Copa America.