In September 2025, Metaplanet (MTPLF) stock dropped 41%, even as Bitcoin price traded near record highs.
On September 24, Benchmark Equity Research kept its “Buy” rating on Metaplanet stock with a target of ¥2,400 by 2026.
Tied to the company, Capital Group has also become the company’s largest shareholder with an 11.45% stake.
Metaplanet Inc., based in Tokyo, saw its stock fall sharply this month. As of September 26, shares closed at ¥517, down from ¥533 the previous day.
The stock traded between ¥496 and ¥531 in recent sessions. Over the past month, it dropped 41%, despite Bitcoin’s relatively strong performance.
The company holds more than 25,500 BTC, making it the fifth-largest corporate holder in the world.
Yet the stock has not followed Bitcoin’s upward path. Shares traded on the U.S. OTC market under the symbol MTPLF have fallen about 40% since the start of 2025.
Metaplanet (MTPLF) stock has also faced sharp swings. Sometimes in July 2025, the stock dropped 14% in a single day.
Analysts say these moves come from concerns over the company’s valuation, new share issuances, and weaker investor confidence.
They see these issues as specific to Metaplanet and not linked to the wider market.
The gap between Bitcoin’s price and the company’s stock is striking. While Bitcoin trades close to record levels, Metaplanet’s value has gone in the opposite direction.
Analysts say the company’s recovery could depend on Bitcoin price reaching $125,000 to $130,000, as well as better financial planning and reduced dilution of shares.
Even with the recent drop, Benchmark Equity Research reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on September 24.
The firm set a price target of ¥2,400 by the end of 2026. This outlook is based on Metaplanet’s strategy and Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Unlike other companies that only hold Bitcoin, the Japanese firm Metaplanet uses a derivatives-based approach.
This strategy allows it to generate income from its reserves rather than relying only on Bitcoin’s price.
Analysts say this gives the company a unique position among firms linked to digital assets.
However, challenges remain. Investors want more clarity on how Metaplanet plans to diversify its income and manage its finances.
Analysts say improved transparency would help rebuild trust. The company will also need to show discipline in reducing share dilution, which has added pressure on the stock.
If anything is clear, Benchmark’s view suggests that Metaplanet could benefit if Bitcoin continues to grow as an institutional asset.
However, for the stock to regain strength, the company may need to prove it can manage its treasury effectively and expand beyond Bitcoin.
Capital Group’s New Role in Bitcoin Exposure
Capital Group, a U.S.-based asset manager with $2.6 trillion under management, has become Metaplanet’s largest shareholder.
It now owns an 11.45% stake worth nearly $500 million. This move gives Capital Group indirect exposure to Bitcoin without holding the cryptocurrency directly.
Metaplanet is now the largest Bitcoin treasury company in Asia. With Capital Group’s backing, it gains a powerful partner as it pursues its strategy.
For Capital Group, the investment fits into its plan of gaining exposure to Bitcoin by investing in companies that hold it.
The firm has long been seen as conservative. Buying into Metaplanet signals growing institutional interest in Bitcoin.
Capital Group also showed interest in other treasury firms such as MicroStrategy.
This reflects a broader shift, as more large investors seek ways to benefit from Bitcoin without handling the risks of direct custody.
The partnership could boost confidence in Metaplanet’s position in the global Bitcoin market.
Still, analysts stress that the company must address its own challenges.
Market watchers say the mix of Bitcoin’s growth, shareholder support, and improved company discipline will decide its future path.