Maxing Out Devin Vassell In 2024 Might Not Be A Bad Thing

When thinking of San Antonio Spurs wing Devin Vassell, the term “max contract” is probably not associated with him. However, it might be soon.

Vassell, who’s just 22, is currently putting up a solid line of 20.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He’s sporting a TS% of 59.7 and has canned 45 three-pointers in just 14 games this season, connecting on over 44% of his attempts from range.

After the conclusion of this season, Vassell will be eligible for a contract extension as he’s currently in Year 3 of his NBA career, and a former first-round draft pick. While the Spurs will likely try to sign him for less than max money, a few rare circumstances could make a deal for that amount just fine anyway. Let’s get into it.

New TV money

The NBA is reportedly looking to sign a new TV deal that is over three times as large as their previous one worth $24 billion over nine years. That deal expires in 2025, and the league would very much like to have a new deal in place by then.

$75 billion is the number most often associated with what the league is looking for, and that would be for the same amount of years, presumably. That means an outright explosion of future income, and a drastically higher salary cap.

Even if the NBA and NBPA agree to cap smoothing – a concept that avoids a one-year hike which we saw in 2016 – there’s no getting around the fact that the salary cap in 2025 is going to be drastically bigger than the year before.

Vassell, whose new extension would kick in by summer of 2024, would miss out on that cap explosion by one year, which makes it likely that his agent will then seek maximum compensation under the old salary cap to offset lost value in 2025. The max, which in Vassell’s case is likely to be 25% of the salary cap, would obviously be worth less if it kicks prior to a significant cap increase.

Sidebar: Even if Vassell signs the extension in 2023, during the salary cap for the 2023-2024 season, its value can change automatically in the summer of 2024 to support the cap of 2024-2025, when the contract actually activates. However, in that scenario, it can only change if it is indeed a max contract.

For example: If Vassell signs an extension in October of 2023 worth $80 million over four years, which would be below the max, he’d be locked into that contract regardless of cap increases in 2024.

However, if Vassell instead signs the 25% max in October of 2023, that number automatically adjusts to what 25% of the cap is when the deal activates on July 1, 2024. His compensation would be determined by percentage, and not by a set salary.

New salary cap

The 2023 salary cap is projected to come in at $134 million, which would be an increase of $11 of this season’s cap number of $123 million.

If we assume another $11 million rise between 2023 and 2024, Vassell would receive 25% of a $145 million cap, or a starting salary of $36.25 million.

Some may do a double take on that number, but remember that the $145 million cap number is a year before the new TV contract triggers an even bigger cap increase.

Even with cap smoothing, and taking into account the current rate of increase year-by-year, it’s not inconceivable to see a 2025 cap land in the area of $170 million. A 25% max under that cap structure would start at $42.5 million.

(Do note that this could all change, and so far no figures are set in stone. The only certainty is that the 2025 cap number is going to land at a higher number than that of 2024, and significantly so.)

Vassell may not currently be viewed as a player worth a maximum contract, but when you take into account how aggressively the cap is going to increase in years after 2025 as well, a maxed out Vassell on a contract signed prior to the new TV contract could become a very good deal for both the Spurs and Vassell himself.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.