MAS policy decision on 14 Oct – OCBC

USD/SGD continued to get bumped up for 5 consecutive sessions. Pair was last at 1.3041 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

MAS may surprise with an earlier easing

“Hotter US payrolls was the trigger, in line with our caution that the corrective rebound can continue. Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3060 (50 DMA), 1.31 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) Support at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo), 1.2940 (21 DMA).

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.79% above our modelimplied mid. MAS policy decision will be announced on 14 Oct, alongside 3Q GDP. We expect MAS to maintain policy status quo again at the upcoming Oct MPC meeting as prevailing appreciating path of the S$NEER policy band remains appropriate.

“But we do not rule out an outside chance that the MAS may surprise with an earlier easing, given that MAS adopts a forward-looking approach to monetary policy making and that the core CPI’s disinflation journey remains intact, apart from the slight bump-up in August.”