Marvel’s ‘Doctor Strange 2’ Must Reassert Walt Disney’s Box Office Strength

With tickets going on sale tomorrow, we are one month out from the domestic debut (counting Thursday previews) of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. With Turning Red ending up mostly on Disney+ instead of theaters, the Marvel flick is the first “Walt Disney proper” (all due respect to the 20th Century Studios and Searchlight releases) to reach theaters since Walt Disney’s Encanto. That animated gem’s Thanksgiving theatrical release was arguably treated as a marketing campaign for its Christmas Disney+ debut, and frankly Sing 2’s $395 million global compared to $253 million for Encanto shows that money was left on the table in the rush to what would have always eventually been huge Disney+ viewership. The Benedict Cumberbatch flick is in the usual position of having to reassert the notion that Disney’s MCU movies (and Disney’s biggies in general) can still rule the box office.

Scott Derrickson’s Doctor Strange was a rock-solid hit in late 2016, earning $232 million domestic from an $88 million debut and grossing $677 million from a $165 million budget. The big question heading into the final lap of marketing is whether audiences will view the Sam Raimi-directed installment as a straight-up sequel to Doctor Strange or as the first “mythology episode” of the MCU since Avengers: Endgame. Yes, we know that the multiverse adventure will likely have its share of Easter eggs, cameos (including presumably Patrick Stewart reprising his previous incarnation of Professor Charles Xavier from the Fox X-Men movies) and major franchise-shattering events. Marvel is hoping for an uplift akin to Captain America: Civil War which introduced Spider-Man and Black Panther while pitting the Avengers against each other for a 61% jump from The Winter Soldier’s $714 million.

Conversely, if the film “only” plays as Doctor Strange 2 and the bump is closer to Ant-Man and the Wasp ($620 million versus $519 million for Ant-Man) or Iron Man 2 ($623 million versus $585 million for Iron Man) and the film doesn’t get an otherwise-expected $100 million from China (since we’re pretty much at the point of having to write off the previously massive supplemental territory), then the film might “only” earn between and $620 million and $715 million. And in a vacuum, especially with still-lingering Covid concerns and (presumably) a $175-$225 million budget, that would be mostly okay presuming decent reviews and strong consumer approval. However, fair or not, there is some pressure to again show that the MCU, specifically Disney’s films contained wherein, remains the most dominant franchise in Hollywood. Because that hasn’t been the case of late.

Black Widow’s mid-summer release was compromised by Disney+ availability (for a $30 upcharge), but its $380 million global cume was well below pre-Covid expectations. I never expected the stand-alone, fantasy-free Scarlett Johansson-led prequel to crack $1 billion, but it’s telling that Black Widow is about to get surpassed by Sony’s $120 million video game adaptation Uncharted ($373 million and counting). Eternals did crawl to $400 million, essentially tying with Dune, but the “Marvel tries to make a DC Films flick” fantasy earned the worst reviews in MCU history and (with $164 million domestic) sold fewer domestic tickets than even The Incredible Hulk ($132 million in 2008). Thank heaven for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which earned terrific reviews, $225 million domestic from a $94 million Fri-Mon Labor Day debut and $432 million worldwide on an over/under $175 million budget.

Warner Bros.’ Dune earned $400 million worldwide on a $165 million budget but also spawned a (likely to be bigger) sequel and won six technical Oscars. Shang-Chi was a buzzy and well-liked hit, but its global gross was well below the likes of F9 ($721 million, including $203 million from China) and No Time to Die ($774 million, including $61 million from China) and earned about as much overseas ($207 million) as Disney’s buzzy Free Guy ($209 million including, to be fair, $94 million in China). The Marvel movies all A) earned less worldwide than Godzilla Vs. Kong ($468 million, including $188 million from China) and B) earned less overseas than even Chris Nolan’s Tenet ($305 million, including $66 million in summer 2020). However, Sony’s Marvel movies didn’t play in China and still soared past the Disney releases.

Venom earned $269 million in China in late 2018, making up 31% of its $854 million global cume. Venom: Let There Be Carnage did not play in China and still earned $214 million domestic and $505 million worldwide. Likewise, Spider-Man: Far from Home earned $199 million in China on the way to a $1.131 billion global cume in the summer of 2019. Spider-Man: No Way Home didn’t play in China and still earned an astonishing $803 million domestic and $1.89 billion worldwide. Disney gets a portion of Spider-Man revenue, but the Sony release scored partially by being a metatextual Spider-Man 4 and Amazing Spider-Man 3 which also took place within the MCU. It is easily the biggest global earner to not play in China and has the fourth biggest no-China overseas gross ever behind Avengers: Endgame, Titanic and Avatar.

Sony’s Marvel movies outperform Disney’s MCU flicks (sans any help from China) and the Disney MCU movies ended up well below a surprising number of non-Disney releases. Uncharted is going to top Black Widow, Godzilla Vs. Kong outgrossed Shang-Chi and Dune (which moved, way back in August of 2019, from November 2020 to December 2020 to get away from Eternals) ended up neck and neck with Marvel’s big-scale fantasy adventure with little critical acclaim or pop culture impact. And now The Batman is on its way to an over/under $775 million global cume, including an over/under $375 million domestic total. After a four-year run (2016-2019) of theatrical domination courtesy of Avengers, Star Wars, Pixar, WDA and those live-action remakes, Disney needs to show that they can still rank at or at least near the top of the mountain.

The MCU summer kick-off movie playing like an MCU summer kick-off movie and pulling grosses on par (on a Covid curve and without China) with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($390 million domestic and $890 million worldwide in 2017). The non-Avengers movies can still thrive even if they don’t quite reach grosses on par with Jurassic World: Dominion (Lost Kingdom earned $417 million domestic and $1.308 billion worldwide, bigger than any of Disney’s non-Avengers MCU flicks save for Captain Marvel and Black Panther) or Minions: The Rise of Gru (Despicable Me 3 was the only $1 billion grosser of summer 2017). But the relative overperformances of No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home and The Batman mean that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness has to make a case that Marvel and Disney should still be feared among theatrical giants.

It is 20 years ago that Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man turned the comic book superhero movie into an A+ tentpole sub-genre, and it’ll be ten years ago next month since Joss Whedon’s The Avengers turned the MCU into the envy of Hollywood. Yesterday was the eighth anniversary of Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which asserted the post-Avengers MCU’s ability to successfully approximate rival genres and annex their competitions’ fandoms into their collective. The last two years, for a variety of reasons, have seen Disney’s MCU movies operating like “just another franchise.” To paraphrase Iron Man 2, the last three MCU movies have shown that god can bleed. With a well-liked actor in Benedict Cumberbatch, a marquee director in Sam Raimi and the promise of “required viewing” spectacle and surprises, In the Multiverse of Madness is the first chance for Disney to ward off the sharks.