Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez Deserves His Lucrative, Complex New Contract

Multiple clubs – most noticeably the Atlanta Braves – have been hustling to sign their best young players to long-term deals in recents months/years. The Braves have locked up Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Michael Harris to team-friendly pacts. Albies’ deal, in particular, is so club-friendly that it defies fairness, and I don’t make such statements lightly.

The Braves have done a great job developing those guys, who appear to value staying together for the long haul and winning a bunch of hardware very highly, perhaps at the expense of their career earning power.

Julio Rodriguez, on the other hand, is a Mariner. I worked in Seattle for a while, and even then, it had been a long time since they had won. Ichiro was still there, and even though he was a shining star, he wasn’t homegrown, like Ken Griffey Jr. before him. Rodriguez is the guy the fanbase has been waiting for since Junior, and they are currently rejoicing because the new kid wants to be in the Pacific Northwest for the long haul.

He could make as much as $470M over as many as many as 18 seasons, beginning this year. He’s guaranteed to earn $120M through 2029, and then the deal can go one of three ways. If he doesn’t fare so well over that span, he can exercise a 5-year, $90M option. If he becomes the megastar most everyone believes he will be, the club can exercise an 8 or 10-year option that can range in value anywhere from $200-350M based on his placement in MVP voting between now and 2029.

It really is a quite creative contract that provides value for both player and club. The economic floor is a pretty staggering one if he doesn’t become a star, and the ceiling, while geometrically even more staggering, still provides value over contract should he become the face of the game.

To get such a deal, one must be a generational player. And don’t look now, but I’ve been evaluating minor and major league performance for over a generation now, so let’s take a step back and see where J-Rod ranks compared to other phenoms in terms of minor league and rookie season dominance.

Since 1993, I have ranked minor league prospects using my Relative Production Potential method. It evaluates position players OBP and SLG relative to their league, adjusted for age and level, but unadjusted for position or home park. It’s a ranked list that basically serves as a master follow document, a launching point from which to conduct more traditional scouting.

Rodriguez finished 15th on my 2019 list, and 5th in 2021 (there was no minor league season in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Since 1994, there have been 61 players who finished in the top 15 on my list in back-to-back minor league seasons. (Four more players, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones and Cliff Floyd likely would have made it 65 had there been a 1992 list.)

64 of those 65 played in the big leagues – A’s 1B prospect Miles Head (#12 in 2011, #7 in 2012) is the exception. A bunch more never became MLB regulars – Victor Diaz, Alex Escobar, Chad Hermansen, Josh Kroeger (played in hitter-friendly Tucson in the hitter-friendly PCL), Calvin Pickering and Chris Snelling. Andy Marte and Oscar Taveras died. And Wander Franco hasn’t qualified as an MLB regular just yet.

The rest of them have at been an MLB regular for at least one season, and most have been much, much more than that. Only 16 of the remaining players have posted less than 10 career WAR, and reaching that level is much harder than you think.

One of the first players to ever receive a long-term MLB deal before reaching the majors – Astro 1B Jon Singleton – is one of those 16 players. In theory, he would be a cautionary tale for the Mariners’ investment in Rodriguez. But he was guaranteed a fraction of Rodriguez’ nest egg – he didn’t pan out, and the Astros shrugged it off and set about building a championship club.

How much risk are the Mariners actually taking here? Let’s look at the 20 best prospects/rookies going back to 1994 in terms of their minor (using my aforementioned evaluation system) and early major league (based on rookie year age/OPS+) pedigrees and see where J-Rod fits:

#20 – 1B ANTHONY RIZZO – (MLB rookie age = 22, OPS+ = 116) – Rizzo ranked 5th on my 2011 minor list, and 4th in 2012. He bounced around a bit before establishing himself in the big leagues as a Cub, and has accumulated 39.1 MLB WAR. There was doubt at some point in his AAA tenure as to whether he’d be an MLB star, but only for a brief time.

#19 – OF ADAM DUNN – (22, 121) – Don’t laugh. Dunn was a stud, a big man who could really run when he was in the minor leagues. He ranked 15th on my 2000 list, and 1st in 2001. His power was evergreen, but everything else started going backward pretty quickly. Dunn accumulated 17.9 MLB WAR.

#18 – OF MOOKIE BETTS – (22, 117) – A little low, you say? Well, remember that we’re ranking these players based on their age and MLB performance in their rookie season. Betts was older and less productive than most of the players in this Top 20. He ranked #9 on my 2013 minor league list, and #4 in 2014. Betts has 55.6 MLB WAR and counting.

#17 – 1B VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. – (20, 106) – His father will turn up later on this list. Guerrero ranked 2nd on my 2017 minor league list and 1st in 2018. He debuted as an MLB regular at age 20 – tied for youngest on this list – so a 106 OPS+ is plenty impressive. He already has 12.9 MLB WAR.

#16 – 3B SCOTT ROLEN – (22, 121) – Our first Hall of Famer. Rolen finished 12th on my 1995 list, and 4th in 1996. He amassed 70.1 MLB WAR and got into the Hall after some sluggish early results. Note that we’re still older and less productive than Julio Rodriguez – 2022.

#15 – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – (22, 123) – Bit of a cautionary tale here. No one would have second-guessed the Indians if they gave him the keys to the city early in his career, but injuries eventually crushed him. He finished 2nd on my 2002 list and 15th in 2003. He still managed to accumulate 27.8 MLB WAR.

#14 – 3B EVAN LONGORIA – (22, 127) – Injuries have plagued the latter stages of his career, but don’t forget how good this guy was. He finished 6th on my 2006 list, and 4th in 2017. He currently has accumulated 58.5 MLB WAR. We’re still older and less productive than 2022 Julio.

#13 – OF B.J. UPTON – (22, 136) – OK, now we’re older but slightly MORE productive than Julio. I guess this is another cautionary tale. Upton forgot how to hit while still a reasonably young man. He actually finished in the Top 15 of my minor league list THREE straight times – 6th, 1st and 9th in 2003-04-05. Upton wound up with “only” 16.8 MLB WAR.

#12 – SS COREY SEAGER – (22, 134) – Seager got paid in free agency this past offseason, and will earn $31.5M in his age 37 season. I’d say the M’s have a lot more upside over their franchise player’s contract than the Rangers. Seager finished 12th in my 2013 rankings, and 7th in 2014. He has 25.1 MLB WAR presently.

#11 – 1B FREDDIE FREEMAN – (21, 116) – We’re getting pretty close to the Julio zone now. Same age as Rodriguez as a rookie, bit less productive. Freeman also had three straight top 15 seasons, finishing 5th, 15th and 6th in 2008-10. He’s still at the top of his game, and has 48.0 WAR in the bank.

#10 – OF VLADIMIR GUERRERO – (22, 117) – On those 1st year regular numbers alone, he probably belongs a bit lower on this list, but he was a borderline regular that year, and his production mushroomed to 150 OPS+ at age 23. He finished 9th on my minor league list in 1995, and 2nd in 1996. He posted 59.5 career WAR, and is in the Hall of Fame.

#9 – 3B ADRIAN BELTRE – (20, 114) – Tough one to rank here. Had a really nice rookie season, and then the bat regressed for a while. He finished 3rd, 1st and 11th in my minor league rankings from 1996-98. Obviously, the glove was always there, probably even better than Rolen’s, and his 93.5 WAR will make him an easy Hall of Famer once he is eligible.

#8 – OF GIANCARLO STANTON – (20, 118) – Ranked 2nd, 4th and 1st on my 2008-10 lists. Was pretty clearly a bat-first prospect from the get-go, but the bat was clearly pretty special. Lots of injuries along the way, but Stanton has racked up 44.9 WAR to date.

#7 – DH YORDAN ALVAREZ – (22, 173) – Talk about tough to rank. An older rookie than all of the players at this level of the list, but his rookie year production is far and away the best of anyone. But before we go crazy running him up there too high, he’s a pure DH and has been injury prone. 4th, 11th and 7th on my 2017-19 lists.

#6 – OF JULIO RODRIGUEZ – (21, 131) – He lands here. Already has 4.4 WAR in less than a full MLB season. Plays a demanding defensive position well, giving him a clear edge over Stanton, Alvarez. It’s clear by looking at the players BEHIND him on this list that the Mariners have the law of averages in their favor with regard to his future. Except that…..

#5 – OF JASON HEYWARD – (20, 131) – Yup, I have to rate Heyward ahead of Rodriguez. As a rookie, he was exactly as productive as Julio and was a full year younger. He also was an exceptional defensive outfielder. If the Braves gave him that era’s version of the Julio contract, no one would have batted an eye. He had finished 6th on my 2008 minor league list, and 1st in 2009. He wound up getting a huge free agent deal with the Cubs, won a World Series ring, and wasn’t as bad an investment as many would have you believe (38.7 career WAR). That said, if Rodriguez ages a la Heyward, Mariner fans will not be happy.

#4 – SS CARLOS CORREA – (20, 135) – 1st overall draft pick. 7th, 11th, 1st on my 2013-15 minor league lists. A 20-year-old MLB regular as a rookie with a 135 OPS+. Has had some injury bumps along the way, and is still angling for his first HUGE free agent payday, but already has amassed 37.8 WAR.

#3 – OF RONALD ACUNA JR. – (20, 143) – Wasn’t a highly acclaimed amateur free agent, but hit from Day One in the minors, finishing 14th on my 2016 list and 1st in 2017. Hasn’t quite been himself after a serious knee injury late last season, but there are no major concerns. Isn’t yet 25, and already has 17.1 WAR.

#2 – OF MIKE TROUT – (20, 168) – The top two guys are more like #1 and #1A. I put Trout here because he was 2nd on back-to-back minor league lists in 2010-11, while the other guys was #1 in consecutive years. Trout has accumulated 80.5 career WAR, but has hit an injury wall in the last couple seasons. A thought experiment – would the Mariners be happy with Mike Trout production through age 28, followed by a dramatic downturn from Julio after they exercise his max option?

#1 – SS ALEX RODRIGUEZ – (20, 161) – The other, as yet unmentioned homegrown M’s superstar. Of course, he left Seattle as soon as he could, and that has not been forgotten. Still, he is the best prospect of the last generation-plus, finishing 1st on my 1994 and 1995 minor league lists. Accumulated 117.6 MLB WAR. He clearly would have been worth any deal the late-90s Mariners might have offered him.

So, based on Julio Rodriguez’ minor league track record and early major league excellence, I’d say the Mariners have a pretty good chance of getting quality return on their investment. If he becomes even an intermediate-term star – a pretty safe bet – the contract should pay for itself.

But the M’s are looking for more than that – they are looking for sizeable value over contract. And most of the players in the vicinity of Rodriguez on this list would have delivered that. The downside? Probably Jason Heyward, and that’s not awful. An early bonanza, followed by a potential big-money flameout, like Mike Trout’s current worst-case scenario, is also in the realm of possibility. The most likely outcome, however, is that Julio Rodriguez is great, and everyone is happy.