As Russian strongman Vladimir Putin continues his illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has branched out from the immediate battlefield to conduct a clandestine offensive against countries supporting Ukraine. To deter these underhanded Russian attacks on U.S. or allied “soil or systems,” the West should provide Ukraine with M60 tanks, Leopards and other offensive weapons that can fundamentally disrupt the battlefield, refocusing Russia’s attention on propping up Putin’s tottering regime.
For Russia, the only path to victory is to break European unity and pro-Ukraine public sentiment. That makes forward battlefield progress in Ukraine less relevant. If Russia can foment enough disorder to help pro-Russian leaders enter into power, global support for Ukraine will wither and Ukraine will, in time, fold under pressure.
To do this, Russia is systematically carrying out operations targeting U.S. and allied governments. National security leaders warned that Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) was linked to cyber attacks on NATO systems in May and June. But the attacks are wide-ranging and go far beyond military targets. In June, Microsoft warned that Russia was “engaged in “strategic espionage” against government, think tanks, businesses and aid groups in 42 countries supporting Kyiv.”
Continued Russian attacks on U.S. or allied “soil or systems” merit a steady roll-back of appeasement-based policies crafted to reduce wider tensions and discourage Russian efforts to expand their invasion beyond Ukraine.
The carrots have failed and it is now time to try some sticks.
Rolling back Europe’s informal commitment to keep Western-sourced tanks, aircraft, and other “offensive” weaponry out of Ukraine is a logical first step. Russia only cares about the battlefield if the Russian Army loses significant ground or faces a significant loss.
Should Russia continue hitting U.S. or allied “soil or systems,” more serious postwar measures may merit public debate. Barring Russian naval vessels from the Black Sea offers a good starting point in an eventual peace agreement. Obligating Russia to demilitarize their side of the Ukrainian frontier is another viable post-war demand from the international community.
Send In M60 Tanks, Leopards And Aircraft
While Ukraine focuses on sustaining and resupplying their Soviet-era arsenal, sources of Soviet-era ammunition and spares are becoming increasingly difficult to find. And with Russia running into resupply problems of their own, Ukraine’s search for legacy ammunition and spare parts will only get harder.
Though Europe has embraced efforts to trade old Soviet-era gear for more modern ground combat platforms—Poland’s donation of at least 240 T-72 tanks is notable—Ukraine’s scattershot shift towards NATO-standard weaponry must accelerate and start crystalizing around larger numbers of identical assault-ready platforms.
Second-tier assault weapons are fine. At this point, Ukraine may not need top-tier offensive weapon systems to retake parts of occupied Ukraine and to threaten strategically relevant areas within Russia itself. With Russia running out of precision ammunition, reactivating reserve T-62s and other long-retired Cold War platforms, large amounts of the West’s second-string weaponry may make a perfect fit for the Ukraine battlefield. Older, early-generation NATO tanks are, in the main, smaller and easier to operate than America’s M1 Abrams tank or many of NATO’s other complex front-line behemoths.
Many potent but old-school M60 main battle tanks are still widely available, with current M60 operators eager to upgrade. Along with the United States, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Jordan, Greece, Israel and others either have M60 tanks in service or may have a good supply of surplus M60’s in storage. With Iran looking to supply Russia with drones and other items, Saudi Arabia and other big Middle Eastern M60 operators that President Biden visited earlier this month may seize upon the opportunity to swap out their upgraded-but-aged M60s for more modern gear.
Ukraine has made no secret that it favors German-built Leopard tanks. In Europe, Leopard I tanks are still available in numbers, yet the misguided effort to keep the West’s offensive weapons out of Ukraine have kept these still-capable tanks off the battlefield and out of the fight. In April, Rheinmetall proposed selling second-hand Leopards to Ukraine. In June, Spain seemed on the cusp of dispatching a handful of more modern Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks, but the proposed donation seems to be either far smaller than originally reported or is not happening. But, if Ukraine is managing to keep the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer operational in the field, the Leopard makes a natural extension, as both platforms share parts.
The only catch is that, to take the offense, Ukraine has to marshal resources, holding back new platforms until they can be committed in sufficient numbers to make a significant difference. Feeding new tanks into the fight, piecemeal, may save a stressed front, but the impact of the new platforms risks being reduced.
In the air, moving Ukraine from Soviet-era fighters to more modern Western fighters and bombers is a far more complex task, but, if Ukraine’s allies can adopt a 4-6 month timeline, it is eminently possible to assemble a viable path forward. Training Ukrainian pilot candidates and ground support personnel can start right now, focusing on several potential Western-sourced attack platforms. Going forward, Russia’s actions can dictate if or what platforms may eventually arrive to bring the fight in the air to the Russians.
By providing Ukraine the necessary tools to break siege lines, retake territory and threaten tactically important territory within Russia, Putin will be forced to step back from creating global mischief, refocusing precious resources on stabilizing the Russian army and maintaining his increasingly perilous hold on power.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/07/20/t60-and-leopard-tanks-are-a-strong-response-to-russias-unconventional-assault/