Luhansk About to Fall – Trustnodes

The third world stands weeks from starvation as Russian troops move to take the last town standing in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine, Sievierodonetsk.

“Seizing Sievierodonetsk will let Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk Oblast fully,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says before adding:

“Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective.”

There’s speculation Ukrainian forces may tactically retreat, followed by a counteroffensives. In other areas there have been limited advances.

“Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks in the Donetsk Oblast, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled,” ISW says.

Half of Donbas is therefore about to fall with it to be seen whether a counteroffensive will be successful. Talks of negotiations have now increased too as the west debates how to respond.

The Dolphin Flotilla

About 20 million ton of grain are blockaded in Ukraine, something that is predicted to lead to mass starvation in Africa, sparking a refugee crisis in Europe.

The newly re-elected French president Emmanuel Macron and the newly elected German chancellor Olaf Scholz, held a 90 minutes discussion with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on the matter.

The outcome is what some describe as Putin offering the EU’s terms of ‘surrender’ that he would be willing to accept. That being Europe removing sanctions on Russia for them to lift the grain blockade.

That has led to criticism of both Scholz and Macron for speaking to Putin, but on the other hand they can now say Europe tried everything to no avail, potentially opening the way for UK to move.

There’s increasing chatter about what we are calling a dolphin flotilla. Dolphins, because they protect humans from sharks, in this case averting mass starvation of third parties that have nothing to do with this war.

Such flotilla would have to go through Istanbul and whether they can is up to the Turkish president Recep Erdogan.

The Montreux Convention regulates the passage through the Bosphorus, but many of the limitations do not apply if say the British navy visits a port in Romania, or indeed arguably in Ukraine, and none of them apply if at Turkey’s invitation, they visit a port in the strait.

The port in question being Odessa, which is currently blockaded by the Russian navy. Opening it will avert the starvation crisis.

What Will Boris Do?

The United States currently appears to be out of the debate. They’re not at best of terms with Turkey and they won’t really be affected  by a potential refugee crisis.

Some in US appear to take the view that countries directly affected, like Egypt, should instead increase the pressure on Russia, yet does Putin care about Sisi?

Germany doesn’t have a navy as such. France maybe would join UK. Italy probably would as it’s the first chance in a long time to remind people they too are a great power of sorts. In addition, Italy would probably be the most affected European country by a refugee crisis from North Africa.

Turkey is probably on board as you don’t just blockade grain. There’s a humanitarian crisis, many of them refugees may end up in Turkey, and in many ways this is a fairly direct attack on both Europe and Turkey.

Just Turkey and UK is probably enough, with Italy it’s more than enough, with France it’s decisive. Just Turkey and UK because you shoot at British dolphins, and you get article 5.

From Russia’s point of view, what did they expect by blockading grain? They’re not in any  negotiating position, and this escalation to war on the entire world through starvation necessarily has to be answered.

It may well be therefore that the blockade would end without the ships even going there as once UK declares its seriousness to actually send the dolphins, the only move Russia can make is to back down.

The British prime minister Boris Johnson and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the matter on Sunday. That suggests this is seriously being considered by the United Kingdom.

Peace Somehow?

Another way to potentially solve this crisis is if somehow peace is negotiated in a way that both sides can declare a win.

With the taking of Luhansk, and much of Donetsk, Putin can say he’s achieved his goals as declared prior to the invasion, and end it here.

A serious discussion on sending a flotilla to the Black Sea would be one good reason for Putin to do so. In fact if he gets such agreement he should be lucky as the fall of Luhansk will be a bad look for the many current leaders who have said Putin can not win, including Scholz.

That he has managed to get so far suggests some of the west’s strategy is not working, and that strategy therefore will change, and in part it is up to Putin to decide whether he wants to learn just how.

It is also of course for Ukraine to decide in part whether they want to say fine, we can stop here, close this chapter. That would probably be considered by Ukraine however only if the rest of it is accepted into Nato.

That would still be a difficult decision, but at least there would be a decision to make. In addition if Ukraine is open to it, Putin can be taken out of the picture entirely as then it would be Nato’s decision whether to force peace. Whether to say enough.

Either outcome is probably acceptable to the western public as long as the starvation crisis is averted.

The threatening of third parties moreover and of Europe directly with a refugee crisis gives leaders cover to be more forceful and set out some terms of their own, on the ground if necessary.

Something that suggests this grain crisis will be ended, or western leaders will be punished, and thus prices as well as inflation will come down which should alleviate some pressure on both bitcoin and stocks.