Live Odds, Bets, And Baeza’s Fight With Himself

The Kentucky Derby’s towering chaos sets it well apart from the two succeeding Triple Crown races — for the runners, it’s as if they’ve been tacked up and dropped with their jockeys into a Category 5 hurricane. Everybody’s out to get everybody any which way, which is true of any race, but at the Derby there are twice as many athletes out there doing that. Despite the 151st Kentucky Derby’s bumptious formation of its field — three scratches in this past race week — via its “Road To The Derby,” Churchill has drawn the talent to set up a number of fine, close, thorny interior battles that will, by hook or by crook, decide the race.

But before we arrive at whether a possible stretch duel between Journalism and Baeza would resemble the finish of the Santa Anita Derby, or whether it would be something else, here, a refresher on the field and the odds. Note: The track money is well and truly awake and chattering like mad out at Churchill now, so we’ll be listing the live odds below and reporting, commenting and updating them as the afternoon progresses toward post time. Post time is 7:32 p.m. EDT.

Saddle Cloth, (Post Position), Horse, Trainer, Jockey, (Morning Line), Live Odds

1. (1.) Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, (20-1), 13-1

2. (2.) Neoequos, Saffie Joseph Jr., Flavien Prat, (30-1), 39-1

3. (3.) Final Gambit, Brad Cox, Luan Machado, (30-1), 15-1

4. (SCRATCH) Rodriguez, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 12-1

5. (4.) American Promise, D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, (30-1), 12-1

6. (5.) Admire Daytona, Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire, (30-1), 37-1

7. (6.) Luxor Café, Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira, (15-1), 9-1

8. (7.) Journalism, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, (3-1), 7-2

9. (8.) Burnham Square, Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., (12-1), 16-1

10. (SCRATCH) Grande, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 20-1

11. (9.) Flying Mohawk, Whit Beckman, Joe Ramos, (30-1), 29-1

12. (10.) East Avenue, Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco, (20-1), 38-1

13. (11.) Publisher, Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr., (20-1), 30-1

14. (12.) Tiztastic, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, (20-1), 20-1

15. (13.) Render Judgment, Kenny McPeek, Julien Leparoux, (30-1), 15-1

16. (14.) Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, (30-1), 24-1

17. (15.) Sandman, Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, (6-1), 5-1

18. (16.) Sovereignty, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, (5-1), 9-1

19. (17.) Chunk of Gold, Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, (30-1), 28-1

20. (18.) Owen Almighty, Brian Lynch, Javier Castellano, (30-1), 38-1

21. (19.) Baeza, John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, (12-1), 19-1

(Source: Churchill Downs, 5/3/2025, 12:40 p.m. EDT)

As ever, the live odds diverge from the morning line, and that gap reflects a certain narrative. It should be noted at the outset that rain is threatening in Louisville right now, and at race time it’s predicted. Naturally, that upends a few assessments and even topples what might be called “certainties.” Notable points of diversion: Sovereignty has come way down in probability to win, very nearly doubling from 5-1 to 9-1. Last-man-in Baeza hasn’t quite descended that far in implied probability to win, but his tanking from 12-1 to 19-1 is certainly a big drop and, it should be immediately noted, will make him more, not less, attractive to players who are looking for a good price. Sandman, the third of the five on the tier behind Journalism, has surprisingly stayed level.

For his part, the rock-steady big man to beat, Journalism, has only come down (in implied probability to win) by half a point, but it’s early days yet on this boy, and you have the sense that players are waiting to see what the money does to his competitition, which it is by no means finished doing, and whether the weather gods will thunder in and upend the tote, pouring it all on Flying Mohawk, who apparently doesn’t mind the slop. More on this point as the clock ticks on down to post time.

To some of the interior battles: Baeza doesn’t seem like a colt that is easily spooked, and that’s a good thing, because the enormous differences between the Derby and every other race these colts have known are clear the moment the gates slam open. The “freak-ability” factor can be more or less remote depending upon the athlete’s history and his or her pedigree, but the reality is that no matter how well an exercise rider, jockey or trainer actually thinks he or she might truly know their three-year-old Triple Crown candidate, the collective mental state of the Class of 2025 can be reasonably compared to that of a gaggle of 15-year-old high-school freshman football players. Trainable, certainly, but definitely also susceptible to heavy hormonal herky-jerkiness and, some extra-jumpy, wild ideas.

Hence the trainers’ longtime obsession with creating a pool of calm focus on the work. Baeza is “considered” three for the purposes of the race but won’t actually turn three until this summer. Jockey Hector Berrios, who rode him to place in the Santa Anita Derby, had this to say after Baeza’s rather notable come-back at the finish: “He is a baby still and loses focus. When we got to the stretch, he started lugging and lugging. I thought, ‘Come on now.’ Then when he felt the other horse (Journalism), he came back.”

That’s as graphic and perfect a description of a three-year-old racehorse as it gets, which is why Baeza’s main battle in the Kentucky Derby will not be with Journalism — even if he’s fortunate enough to land in another stretch battle with Journalism. Baeza’s main battle in the Kentucky Derby later this afternoon is with himself.