Let's Dig Into First Republic Bank

By
BRUCE KAMICH

Mar 28, 2023 | 12:26 PM EDT

Stocks quotes in this article:

FRC

First Republic Bank’s ( FRC) stock price plunged sharply in March on concerns that the San Francisco-based lender could fail as some regional banks had done. Rapid customer withdrawals forced them to lock in losses on depreciated assets but FRC has remained open.

Let’s check the charts and indicators.

In this daily bar chart of FRC, below, I can see that prices were in a prolonged downward trend long before the heightened banking concerns. Prices were trading below the declining 50-day moving average line and below the bearish 200-day line.

The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line was quietly drifting lower the past year before its recent sharp move down. The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish but narrowing.

In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of FRC, below, I see a bearish picture. Prices were declining from the fourth quarter of 2021. FRC has been trading below the declining prices for a while now. The weekly OBV line was hammered this month. The MACD oscillator has been bearish since early 2022. The candles do not yet show us a bottom reversal.

In this daily Point and Figure chart of FRC, below, the software shows us a potential downside price target in the $0 – zero – area.

In this weekly Point and Figure chart of FRC, below, I can see the same bearish downside price target as the daily chart above.

Bottom line strategy: Point and Figure charts ignore volume and time but I find it unsettling that they currently yield a price target of $0 – zero. Prices could bounce at any time on a headline but that is not anything I can anticipate or time. Avoid.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the “+Follow” next to my byline to this article.

Real Money’s message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site’s moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation.
If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email sent

Oops!

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.