Leon Blum’s Progressive Brand Of Democracy May Rebound In 2023

The first public event I went to at the end of the ‘COVID’ confinement period in 2021 was a play titled ‘L’un de nous deux’, which was first of all memorable for the sensation of being in a crowded space for the first time in over a year, and secondly for the play itself.

It told the story of Leon Blum, three times prime minister of France (the first socialist and Jew to hold that role) and Georges Mandel (a journalist and politician – he was Clemenceau’s right hand man for a time), who were put under house arrest together in Buchenwald by Petain’s Vichy regime.

When Philippe Henriot, the Vichy minister for information was killed by the Resistance, the German army decreed that one of the two would be killed. The play reconstructs the conversations between the two men, as they discuss politics, the war and humanity in the knowledge that one of the two would be taken away and executed. Mandel was subsequently taken back to France and murdered in the forest of Fontainebleau. Blum survived (despite an order by the Germans that he be killed – his brother died at Auschwitz) and after the war prosecuted those who had killed Mandel.

Paris

Both were remarkable men, but Blum in particular, deserves to be uncovered to a wider audience. There is a superb radio series about his life on Radio France, and last Friday I was lucky enough to attend the unveiling of a plaque outside Blum’s former apartment on the Quai de Bourbon (where the likes of Churchill and Anthony Eden visited him). Blum spent eight, productive years of his life there until the day the SS came for him, and tore the apartment asunder looking for his archives.

He has lasting accomplishments as a politician – instituting a structured working week, formal holidays for workers, compulsory school attendance and notably appointing three women to his cabinet at a time when women could not vote. His personal characteristics were even more appealing – highly intelligent, he was a charming dandy, and orator during what was one of the most vibrant periods in France’s democratic history (Third Republic). He was also morally and physically courageous, having been violently attacked by anti-Semites and far-right mobs on a number of occasions.

There are many things that resonate about his life and values today – notably how it reflects the cruel war that Russia is prosecuting on Ukraine, and the countless episodes and examples of courage amongst Ukrainians. Blum’s life is also a reminder of resilience in the face of very savage discrimination, and of the constant difficulties that many in public life continue to face.

What is most important, and which we touched on in last week’s note ‘2023 – War by Other Means’ is that Blum’s brand of progressive democracy has in recent years, become an increasingly isolated form of government, undercut by autocrats, populists and egotists. As we head into 2023 my greatest hope is that what has come to be known as the democratic recession will come to an end.

Autocratic Recession

Optimistically as we look into 2023, democracies are on the comeback after a period of deterioration in the quality of democracy around the world and several political earthquakes in large, advanced economies. And autocracies are on the backfoot.

In democracies, the centre is holding and populism is broadly on the retreat – despite a series of major challenges, from the pandemic to Ukraine and the energy crisis. Across Europe, incumbents have done relatively well (from France and Germany to Denmark) and reasonably centrist parties are in dominant positions. Even in Italy, the new right wing government seems to be following centrist governing positions on key issues. And after the chaos of the Johnson and Truss Administrations, the UK is taking a moderate turn.

The US remains deeply divided, but the centre is also stronger – the MAGAMAGA
wing of the GOP have had setbacks, and the Biden Administration has been able to sign meaningful pieces of legislation.

This dynamic is partly because democracies have been responsive to popular preferences over the past several years: democracies generally did a good job through the pandemic (the US is a partial exception); and they are responding strongly to the energy crisis. And the increasingly evident strategic competition – from China to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – may have motivated democracies to get serious.

There are of course challenges to democracies. Perhaps the biggest in 2023 will be managing the redistributive implications of high inflation: real wage growth is negative, household budgets are getting squeezed, and (nominal) borrowing costs are increasing.

Further, the ‘democratic recession’ may be replaced by an ‘autocratic recession’. China will face major political issues through 2023, most notably getting out of the Covid corner it has painted itself into. The lockdowns are an economic drag and a source of rising political discontent. But relaxing and opening up will likely lead to a large number of deaths (perhaps 1 million), given low vaccination rates and weak public health infrastructure. Beyond this, the Chinese economy is slowing structurally; youth unemployment for example is ~20%.

Countries like Iran are also struggling with poor economic and social outcomes and political discontent. And the Russian economy is likely to weaken to a greater extent in 2023, with a political class that is clearly making poor judgements. China, Russia, and other autocracies were on the offensive over the past decade, sensing Western weakness. But Western democracies now have good reason for confidence in their model to deliver good outcomes.

If this scenario comes to pass, it would, amongst many other things be a nice hat tip to the courage of Leon Blum, and a positive way to end the year. This note will take a short break over the holidays and return on the 8th January.