Last week’s outperformer – Commerzbank

The Aluminium price recorded the strongest increase among the LME metals last week, rising by 7.5% compared to the previous week. It was not only the hope of rapid interest rate cuts in the US that provided a boost, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Aluminium prices are falling slightly again today

“There were also concerns on the supply side after the futures price for alumina, the intermediate product between bauxite and refined Aluminium, rose significantly on the Shanghai Future Exchange due to a sharp decline in inventories registered on the SHFE. At the end of last year and then again in May, a sharp rise in the price of alumina had already driven Aluminium prices up sharply. However, prices on the alumina market quickly fell again at the time, and the LME price also fell as a result. In fact, alumina prices have already fallen again somewhat this time too.”

“Even though we generally consider Aluminium to be well supported, as capacities at the main supplier China are only being expanded slightly and at the same time the medium-term demand prospects are positive because the metal is in demand during the transformation process, we believe that prices have risen a little too quickly in recent days and that the upside potential has now been exhausted in the short term. After trading on the LME was closed yesterday, Aluminium prices are falling slightly again today.”