LAFC’s Path To Repeat As MLS Cup Champions Suddenly Looks Clearer

Three teams sealed their place in the conference semifinals of the MLS Cup Playoffs this weekend. But comparatively, none put themselves in better position than Los Angeles Football Club.

The Black-and-Gold closed out their Round One series over Vancouver with a professional 1-0 away victory on Sunday night. And elsewhere, the Western Conference playoff picture arguably got a lot more favorable.

West regular season champions St. Louis City was swept by eighth-seeded Sporting Kansas City. While SKC has been excellent since May, their win means LAFC would host a conference final should they get to that point.

Meanwhile, seventh-seeded Dallas forced a third and decisive game with second-seeded Seattle Sounders. While Seattle is still in control with Match 3 to be played in front of their home fans, a loss there would give LAFC home field throughout the rest of the West bracket. (LAFC would have to travel for the MLS Cup final unless they face Atlanta or Nashville).

And even in the Eastern Conference, the most likely contenders are having issues. Although FC Cincinnati is through to the next round, the 2023 Supporters Shield winners will have to play their conference semifinal without Matt Miazga due to a foolishly earned card-accumulation suspension.

The defending conference champion Philadelphia Union have a lead in their series but are dealing with allegations that star left back Kai Wagner directed a racial slur toward New England’s Bobby Wood. Philly also saw co-leading scorer Julian Carranza exit with an injury in Match 1, while New England lost 2021 MLS MVP Carles Gil early in that game.

But the biggest reason to be bullish on LAFC’s chances to become the first repeat champions since the LA Galaxy in 2011 and 2012 isn’t what is going on elsewhere. It’s that suddenly, Cherundolo’s men have coupled the league’s best scorer with its best defense.

Denis Bouanga has continued the goal-scoring form that led him to win the 2023 MLS Golden Boot with 20 goals scored. He has nine goals in all competitions in his last five games. It’s his most prolific stretch of the season, but he also scored 11 goals over seven appearances in all comps between March 8 and April 9 this year.

The newer development is on the other end, where LAFC has kept clean sheets in three of its last nine games and played better defense than those numbers suggest. The Black and Gold have also allowed opponents only nine goals and only 7.7 expected goals over that stretch. (Read an explanation of expected goals — also known as xG — here.) When you remove out the xG value generated from two penalties conceded in a 1-1 regular season draw at Vancouver on Decision Day, Cherundolo’s group has only allowed more than 1.0 xG in a match only once over those nine games, according to numbers from fbref.com and MLSsoccer.com.

The total of 6.2 non-penalty xG allowed over nine games is championship-level defending. And what makes it even more impressive is that LAFC’s best defensive performances in that stretch have come on the road, where they’ve kept all three of their clean sheets. At home, they’ve simply been able to outscore opponents, something they’ve always excelled at.

There’s still a month to go until the MLS Cup final, which is plenty of time for unforeseen twists and turns. And LAFC will have to figure out how to tackle a three-week break until they return to playoff action, due to sweeping their series and the international break following later in November.

But the path to becoming the first repeat champions in a decade is suddenly looking a lot more passable. And if LAFC do that after also winning the Shield in 2022 and reaching the 2023 Concacaf Champions League final, it may represent the best 13-month stretch a team has posted in MLS history.