Topline
Russia has no plans to declare war against Ukraine as part of its Victory Day celebration May 9, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday, but mounting Western intelligence suggests Russia may mark the commemoration with an escalation of its military campaign.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, stands with his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, right, in 2017.
Key Facts
Peskov told reporters there is “no chance” Russian President Vladimir Putin will make an official war declaration on May 9, saying the widespread speculation about him doing so are “nonsense,” according to Reuters’ translation of his comments.
Celebrated annually with a military parade in Moscow, Victory Day commemorates the Soviet Union’s 1945 victory over the Nazis – an opponent the Kremlin may latch onto given its repeated and misguided justification of the invasion as a way to rid Ukraine of neo-Nazis.
Putin will “probably” use the Victory Day occasion to declare war, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC Radio last week, and U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday there’s evidence Russia will do “everything they can to use” Victory Day as a way to spread wartime propaganda, saying a war declaration on the holiday would represent a “great irony.”
The Kremlin has solely described its invasion of Ukraine thus far as a “special military operation” and a war declaration would serve one key purpose: paving the way for the mass mobilization of its population toward the war effort.
Contra
Peskov may have directly denied speculation about a May 9 war declaration, but the Kremlin has contradicted its official statements related to the conflict before. Putin and his allies lied about their plans for Ukraine leading up to the war, including when the Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said “there is no invasion” planned for Ukraine on February 20, just four days before Russia invaded its neighbor.
What To Watch For
If Russia attempts to forcibly annex two pro-Kremlin separatist states in Ukraine’s Donbas region. U.S. intelligence suggests Russia will use “sham referenda” to annex the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” some time this month, U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Mike Carpenter told reporters Monday.
Crucial Quote
A national mobilization “would change the whole Kremlin narrative,” Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Russia Oleg Ignatov said to CNN, adding that such a move would likely not be very popular among Russians.
Further Reading
Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say (CNN)
Russia Seeks to Annex Occupied Ukraine as Invasion Goals Shift (Bloomberg)
Why May 9 is a big day for Russia, and what a declaration of war would mean (CNN)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/05/04/kremlin-calls-reports-of-may-9-war-declaration-nonsense-but-the-us-and-uk-believe-putin-has-something-up-his-sleeve/