Kovacic Transfer Sees Man City Move Quickly Ahead Of Gundogan’s Move To Barca

Manchester City’s 2023 treble-winning team has already begun to be disbanded as standout midfielder Ilkay Gundogan leaves for Barcelona on a free transfer, but in Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic, City manager Pep Guardiola already has a replacement lined up.

Kovacic, who is set to join City for an initial $32 million with a potential further $6 million in add-ons, is not a like-for-like replacement for Gundogan based on his profile at Chelsea but still gives Guardiola plenty of what he needs in his team.

An adaptation to Guardiola’s style could still see Kovacic begin to do some of the things the man he is replacing brought to the side. Even if he hasn’t got these things in his repertoire already, there is the potential to add them.

Gundogan enjoyed arguably his best season in Manchester last season, which was at least up there with other standout seasons between 2020 and 2022.

He is not an easy player to replace given the length of time he has been with the club, his enduring quality, and his important contributions from midfield.

Kovacic, though, has been one of the best midfielders in the Premier League during his time in England with Chelsea.

He’s technically sound and always looking to progress the ball. Whether that is via passing in the way Gundogan might, or through carrying the ball upfield at his feet—something that will add a new dimension to the City team should Guardiola wish to retain this aspect of Kovacic’s game.

Kovacic, 29, had one year remaining on his contract at Chelsea, and this may have contributed to the club being willing to sell rather than potentially lose the player on a free transfer next summer.

The Croatian has not stood out in the Premier League as much in the 2022/23 season due to Chelsea’s overall poor form. Not only did the club fail to finish in any of the European qualification places, it also failed to finish in the top half of the table, winding up 12th out of the league’s 20 teams.

City will still believe it is worth paying a reasonable sized transfer fee for the player despite his team’s poor form, and despite him only having a year left on his contract, because of the quality he will be able to bring.

Guardiola has done away with full-backs in a number of games this season, often choosing to go with three or even four center-backs in his back line. What goes on in the midfield, where Kovacic will operate, plays a big part in the buildup.

The Champions League final versus Inter was an example of this, when Nathan Aké, Rúben Dias, Manuel Akanji, and John Stones made up the back four in defence.

Stones has been asked to move forward into midfield when his side has possession (which for City is most of the time) whether from a starting position at center-back or right-back.

The width in City’s team comes from the wingers in the attacking line. Even though they have a tendency to cut inside, these players hug the touchline most of the time, stretching the defence and opening up space in the middle.

The center of the park can still get cramped due to the way teams defend against City, either due to narrow low or mid blocks, or a growing tendency for more adventurous teams to press them.

If you want a player to progress your team through the middle of the field through pressure, Kovacic is that player. He is one of the best in the Premier League at moving the ball upfield through these middle channels.

Even during Chelsea’s poor 2022/23 season, he still ranks among the best in Europe’s top five leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, and Serie A) for passes into the final third and progressive passes according to the football data website FBref.

During the previous Premier League season, in 2021/22, he was among the best in the league for take-on success and carrying the ball.

Kovacic’s style rating from Smarterscout for the same season shows strong linkup play, dribbling, ball retention, and also an ability to “disrupt” opposition moves when out of possession.

Finally, the graphic shown below from the Opta Analyst player comparison tool, shows Gundogan’s higher involvement in attack with higher percentile scores for shots, touches in the box, and goals, whereas Kovacic scores higher for touches overall, and dribbling.

City’s first move in the summer transfer window is a typically savvy one.

Though Gundogan is a big loss, Kovacic, almost three years younger than the man he is replacing (but not replacing), is one of the best midfielders around, still in his prime years, and available at a reasonable fee. City has moved quickly to solve a problem early on this summer.